Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaDonk
One of the hands we were getting value from just turned us and we’re now dead against an ace. We should let him bluff while pot controlling when we’re almost dead (or dead).
Understood, and not disagreeing with you.
If V had opened a normal size from +1, I'd probably just flat call and set mine with 77. I don't mind the 3B when he raises small. But the AAX board is obviously kind of scary for both us and V, because we could both have a lot of AX in our range. I would expect V to fold most of the un-paired hands in his range when we c-bet, and also fold out any pair lower than 6.
I'm not sure if he's flatting the flop with 66, or very much 6x, so I'm not TOO concerned about the board pairing 6 on the turn. I think once we c-bet the flop small, V is going to be continuing pretty wide with all his pairs higher than 6, just hoping to boat up, and all his un-paired high-card combos.
So I sort of like the 6, in that it cuts down on the number of 6x combos he can have, and is just a brick for the rest of his range. If we barrel small, and he raises, obviously we're just done with it. Even if he calls, I wouldn't plan on betting the river, no matter what it is.
It's not that I like the way we got here, and I want to continue barreling. I don't like the way we got here, but we got here the way we did, and I think barreling small is probably better than just checking.
Like, say we made it $60 pre, he called, and we bet $80 on the flop. I think we have more fold equity when we take that line. If he calls, I'm just done with it unless we boat up on the turn. We'll have lost $140 or won $60 if he folds.
The way hero played this, we're already in the pot for $70, and the pot is $140. If we barrel for $60 and V folds, we win $70. If we don't bet, are we check-folding, or check-calling? If V bets $100, and we fold, we lose $70 with what might be the best hand. If we call, we stand to lose $170, possibly more, depending on what happens on the river.
I don't really love the idea of checking with our hand, and having to play a guessing game. I'd rather take a chance that V will fold if we fire again, even at the risk of having to give up and lose more than we would have if we checked, rather than check and open the door for V to bluff us off our equity.
It's a 3B pot and V opened from +1. I have to think that if our LAG read is accurate, he'd be 4B'ing a lot of his better AX holdings pre, or raising some of them on the flop, which would weight his range more towards other PP's and suited connectors, especially suited Broadways. Both of those types of hands should over-fold to a second barrel.
Even if V has some weak AX, like A5, he won't love the situation if we bet again for a small size. Even though he has a boat, any card higher than 6 could possibly make us a better aces full. I'm not saying he'll fold, but he's unlikely to raise, whereas if we check, he's definitely going to value bet AX, and probably a lot of other hands that would have likely folded to another bet.