On vacation at the Mirage this past weekend, at a 1/2 NL table...

I buy in for 50bb (because I’m fearful of the deepstack play that makes it so much easier to play bad in cash games than in tourneys) and an hour or so later a serious looking fellow (villain) -- who likes to stare like he's making Ivey soul reads -- sits down across from me. After about one orbit, he’s already limped waaay too much (about 4-6 times) and I haven’t seen him show down a hand yet (c/f a few times on flop, fold turn once, picked up an uncontested pot) when I look at QQ in CO with about $125.

Villain limps in UTG+2, one other MP limper, and I raise to $12. Villain calls and MP folds.

Flop comes 954 (pot = $29, stack ~$115). Villain checks, I bet $20, villain insta-calls.

Turn brings J (pot = $69, stack ~ $95). Villain donks for $40. I raise AI for about $95.

Looking back, I’m not quite sure if this was the right move, but I can’t see how folding or just calling here could be a better play.

Was my bet sizing too small to commit me here? I feel like villain could make this move thinking I may not be committed yet, as the reverse implied odds OTF would scare him off any draw except maybe 76 or 63 if he thought I was committed. Or am I wrong to assume that most $1/$2 players even think this much? Any input is greatly appreciated… thanks.

NH.

If you got beat, reload.

My take is a player likely to donk those draws on the turn would be more likely to c/r them on the flop. In general, you won't see too many villains at 1/2 playing a draw like this.

I could see the villain leading out with AJ or something similar. With the frequency of his limping, there are a couple of two pair combos in his range.

Bet sizing looks okay. I would probably bet $25 on the turn, but $79/$90 isn't drastically different from $69/$95 as far as commitment.

Are you committed? You have 25% of your stack in, so you can fold, I am just not sure I can find one here.

Preflop: Good.

Flop: Also good.

Turn: Good.

Folding on the turn is reasonable, and you will be beat somewhat often here, but I think shoving is slightly better. Due to the board coordination your opponent is more likely than usual to have raised if he flopped 2 pair or a set. His bet could signal a 9 that he doesn't know what to do with now, a combo draw (probably including the J) or something completely stupid. Call and remind yourself not to be upset if your opponent turns over a better hand.

Just my opinion...

I don't think I ever have a fold here 62bbs deep. From your description of the villain I think it's definitely possible that he's come to the table with the intention of running it over. With the stack size I'm always happy to get it in with an overpair when there's no draw that hit the turn.

That said, no you're not committed and you can make a case for folding I suppose. I think the hand we lose to most often is J9. If he flopped a set here it's more likely for him to C/R the turn as your turn bet would commit you.

just call his turn bet and take a look at the river, with only $50 left on the river villan will pay you off reguardless.

they question is, why would you shove? you have no fold equity.

There's about 938648 draws that call the turn but fold the river if they brick. That's why.

this, played fine all streets imo villain could just as easily have Jx here and as another poster said you have no fold equity so you get max value for your hand which is ahead of his range...

Villain end up with J9 OP?

That was what I put him on after I pushed and he called without any thought.

And like Mep said, if he did have a draw, I knew he wasn't putting anything else in OTR unless he hits (with exception of some hand like AJ if he was allergic to folding).

Turns out the reason for his lack of thought and donk bet was due to the sizable draw he had on turn. He rolled over 76 for the OESD on flop and added flush draw on turn. River was T and weeeeeeee all the way to the ATM I went!

edit: disreguard my post, i thought we had a draw/ no pair.