Hand: $5/5/10, ~$5k effective. UTG+1 opens $60, Hero calls in SB w/ 88. Flop Qd8s4d. Hero x/r to $225, Villian c. Turn 4d. Hero $425, Villian c. River Kc. Hero $1k, Villian snap jams $4k. Hero?

Comments/Notes: Villian is a recreational player, tight/passive. He routinely limps weak/medium hands and raises strong ones preflop. I was pretty positive I was beat here, but after thinking of AdQx as a bluff and figuring I'm exploitable here given I'm folding my entire range (never have better than 88), I was leaning towards call. As played, are you folding river? Moreover, is my sizing on river (3/4 pot) horrific? In retrospect, I think so as we never have nuts on this board and want to bet smaller with our flushes.

Generally, how does one think about pot geometry and geometric sizings when IP and OOP?? I feel like live NLH, especially larger uncapped games, play 300-400 bb+ at times, and I'm curious how we should be thinking about pot control (and stacking off) that deep. Any good solvers that can handle deeper sims? Lastly, how does one apply GTO / balance to live NLH. Is there any point in trying to play "balanced" versus unbalanced players? I'm pretty terrible theory-wise and unbalanced myself, but starting to switch my philosophy from viewing "GTO" as the Bible to viewing GTO as a map opposed to a user's manual.


Cheers,
ringring

How much did he bet on the flop?

And what was the turn card? You have the 4d on the flop and the turn.

Sorry. Bet $70 on flop, flop was Qd8d4s.

Ouch. Folding would be a massive exploit, but how often does a tight passive player go all in for 500BB with worse, even at 5/5/10?

If KK and QQ make up a significant portion of his preflop raising range, and you don't think he turns hands like AA/AQ into bluffs often, then this can be a fold, although getting 2/1 with third boat (and at the top of your range as you point out) I'm not sure calling can ever be terrible, especially if he can overplay the nut flush

In my little live poker experience, nobody is balanced in a spot like this and 500x deep, much less a V described as tight/passive.
So, the chances of V bluffing are very close to 0, imo.
The only question is whether V may massively overplay the NF.

Seating comfortably in front of my pc, I'd tend to say this is a fold.
Whether I am capable of making the fold in game, I am not sure.

CR should be a little bigger on the flop.

River is indifferent at equilibrium vs the player type you describe most likely a fold.

What you want to hear: Obv. ez fold on river, nobody posts if V doesn't have QQ/KK ... you say AQo is firing 400bb on the river as a bluff, but lol. To try to get KdJd/JdTd to fold river? You assume nobody thinks you are ever bluffing and just calls AQ? Maybe he assumes you never have a FH and shoves AdKd on river, but that's a single combo. You think he has even AJs for a second combo?
Or maybe his next assumption is that you have 88 3x more than 44 so maybe you can fold for 300bb more into a 700bb pot?


Things you don't want to hear from robot play SB vs. EP at 400bb with rake (tighter opens):

1. 88 is a call about half the time. To be fair this is the line, as 99 never folds.

2. We call 44 maybe 10%.

3. JTs is 25% 3bet and 75% call, T9s about 15% 3bet and 35% call.

4. AJs/ATs/65s/54s are your only real suited calls (with the Q blocked, and they all 3bet some). KJs/KTs does call a little bit.

5. QQ is a call about 80% of the time. KK is a call about 20% of the time.

6. The above is all for two blinds, and 400bb ... you have two blinds behind you and are 500bb deep, so that will be tighter. In theory without rake you are both a lot looser, where you have ~90% call 44 and 65-75% call KJs/KTs/J9s and JTs is almost a pure call. A9s is a pure call and 50% A7s/A6s and a lot more of A5s/A4s/A3s. QQ is still less than 25% 3bet though. KK is a call ~25% of the time.


Given the above I don't think you should raise 88 on the flop ... at least not all the time, unless it's an exploit. Also think about if you are really raising flush draws here, and do they keep barrelling vs. this player when the 4 hits. Your combos. draws are only gutter+FD, or worse.

If you never raise flop with 44 then value on the river is QQ/88 ... so I doubt you are supposed to just pure call all of range, but robots will have bluffs so maybe they do.

This is really the danger of leading out on a river like this. You fave a call for everything. This seems very much like kings.

Given how much you're spending on one hand here, why not hire someone who is a professional to coach you. Far better than randoms on the internet.

Feels like kings to me as well. I feel like you should up the flop raise to maybe 450 and the turn to around at least 850. With 1800 in there I feel like he could EASILY have a high flush on this board and overplay as well... I'm thinking he has kk majority of the time and high flush around 35 percent. I think it's a valid call with 1800 in.

If I understand the OP and subsequent posts - the board was paired (4's), AND there was a flush that came in on the turn?

V's repping KK or QQ, but could have the flush? No, I'm never folding a boat, the way this was played. Give V QQ. Is he really not 3B'ing over your flop x/r? Give him KK. Is he really calling the flop x/r and your turn barrel, when the flush comes in, and he's losing to boats, so he's drawing to only 2 outs, assuming we don't have 44, and he's drawing dead?

Nah. I can't fold 88 here. If he's got KK/QQ, he's getting my money. I'm not folding to monsters under the bed in a spot like this.

River bet sizing - it's horrific if your plan was to bet-fold a full house. I don't hate a check-call here, to induce a bluff or a value-bet with a worse hand. We should have some strong hands in our river checking range, and 88 is the strongest hand we're likely to have here, other than 44. I don't mind a small blocker bet, targeting flushes for value. I don't think this is a spot where we want to polarize by going huge.

What I don't like about your bet sizing on the river is that it looks like thick value when it's hard for you to have KK/QQ, so a good opponent is going to be able to put you in a tough spot by repping one of those hands with this raise, and a bad opponent might think the nut flush is good enough to raise for value, not realizing they're turning their hand into a bluff, and win by accident when you fold, because it looks obvious that you're beat.

So, I think this is a spot where we can check to induce with a plan to call a reasonable size bet, or if we bet, we block bet small, not 2/3-3/4 pot, with a plan to fold to a raise, which is likely to be huge, and unlikely to be a hand we beat.

Deep-stacked, we shouldn't necessarily be looking to set up a river jam in every pot we play, unless we're prepared to re-load multiple times. Suppose you jammed from up front here. You're getting snapped off by KK/QQ, and MAYBE you get value from some flushes. But if you bet small, you'll get called by a lot of worse hands, and only raised by hands that have us beat. There's nothing wrong with taking a line that allows us to get away from a non-nutted hand and preserve our stack.

EDIT to add - if we want to play Doug Polk, and ask what V's bluffs are here (assuming he's not over-valuing a worse hand, like a flush)...V could play KdQx this way, as a bluff, blocking hero's KK/QQ combos and blocking the 2nd nut flush. He could also have A4, AdKx (blocking the nut flush, rivering TPTK), AdQx (flopped TPTK, blocking nut flush). He might have JJ/TT.

It's not a spot with very many intuitive bluffs, when the flush draw gets there, but a good opponent will find some non-intuitive bluffs when hero can't really have the nuts. Hero's thick value is comprised of just 1 combo of 44 and 3 of 88, so it's more likely hero has a middling flush than a boat or quads. V could be over-valuing some hands we beat and finding enough bluffs to balance the 6 combos of KK/QQ we're behind.

I highly doubt a passive rec is turning a hand into a bluff or overvaluing a flush for his stack here. We are exploiting our opponents, so of course we are going to be exploitable. That is the name of the game.

Yeah we are overfolding river, but that's okay. Fine to fold as an exploit.

I think you played the hand well and absent some history or read you aren't telling us, I would fold the river.

I've been there too..."top of my range, can't fold." But that type of thinking is a trap. Sure, in some spots vs tough opponents who are finding the bluffs we may have to play like that. But a ton of the time we just need to keep it simple.