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Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table

03-10-2024 , 09:16 PM
1/1 home game, no rake. The host let people buy in for over $1,000, and it plays like 2/5.

Hand 1

V (134) once said, “I’m a good player until I go on tilt,” and I agreed. He has played poker weekly for twenty years and knows the game well. But I’ve seen him throw his chips across the table at least a dozen times. After the casino banned him permanently, his want for action gave the inertia to restart this home game. He bought-in for 500. At 10:30, he announced he’s going home at 11:00. It’s now 10:50.

Hero (covers) has a TAG, maybe nitty image. V knows hero well.

OTTH

V opens all in to 134. Folds to hero in SB with 88. Hero?


Hand 2

V (100) is tight-passive. He's well read in poker but plays scared money. He has not played poker for seven years since the casino opened and killed the home games. He brought to the game only $100, about what he earns in a day. He’s happy he is now even.

Hero (covers) has TAG image.

OTTH

Announcing he is going home, V open-bets 100, all-in. Folds to hero on the button with AKo. Hero?
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-10-2024 , 09:30 PM
Hand 1 feels really close, but it's hard to see how we are at best we are doing much more than flipping; I suspect there aren't many hands like A7s or lower PPss in his range, where we have a real edge. We do have one player behind us too. And he has another 10mins. I'm making a tight fold

Hand 2: I'm raising (and probably shoving assuming stacks in SB/BB are not massive). If he has AA or KK (or the two players behind) so be it.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-10-2024 , 10:46 PM
Based on the info given for villain in hand 2, why would they risk a satisfactory break even session with anything other than a big pocket pair? Fold.
Hand 1 leaning call. Not sure what BB's stack is, or the read, or if they are exhibiting fold tells.
In both cases, use the fact that a pocket pair has a slight edge over two overcards.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-11-2024 , 12:54 AM
Depends.

Are these guys drinking at this game? Either of them giving off that "take my money before I go" vibe?

H1 - V is stuck and sounds prone to tilt. I probably call, especially if I'm deep stacked enough to not be concerned if I double V up.

H2 - V is even, tight-passive, and scared money. I probably fold. It gets closer if we have AKs or QQ.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-11-2024 , 02:22 AM
I call both spots
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-11-2024 , 02:53 AM
Open jams for 100+bb? Just fold. You just don't have incentive to enter the pot. The don't have incentive to steal the blinds for that much.

When the blinds approach 0, AA becomes the only hand we need to play. And the blinds are approaching 0 with this hand.
Maybe we call with QQ+. Certainly KK+.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-12-2024 , 06:56 PM
Results

Hand 1: Hero tank folded. V showed A2s

Hand 2: Hero snap folded. V mucked.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-12-2024 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
Open jams for 100+bb? Just fold. You just don't have incentive to enter the pot. The don't have incentive to steal the blinds for that much.
I'm so happy you responded, thank you. During both hands, I thought about this post you made about a similar scenario. Your point: we don't really make much money by flipping for 2 dollars in blinds.

It's of course player and read dependent. Against V in Hand 1 in a previous hand, I had a bluff catcher, and I had called V down. There, he had the goods, and I lost a lot of money. It's just hard to play against someone who is mostly competent, then goes on tilt unexpectedly.

Last edited by adonson; 03-12-2024 at 07:17 PM.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-12-2024 , 08:12 PM
Mlark's take is entirely logical. Then again...

These scenarios aren't what I consider "playing poker". This is just wagering a known amount of money that our hand is better than our opponent's, without much if any of the usual info which assists in making those in-game decisions that define the game.

In H1, I would probably call because I think 88 has good equity against V's range, when he's a tilted degen gambler stuck $366, I'd like to win an easy $136, and I'm willing to take the chance I'm wrong, or that my hand doesn't hold up.

In H2, I would probably fold because I don't want to have to make a pair when a guy who isn't stuck, and isn't much of a gambler, who could just pick up and go home even on the session, suddenly decides he wants to wager $100 on the last hand he plays.

Obviously we'd snap call in both scenarios with AA. If we say the blinds are close enough to zero to not take the risk, but we can also call with KK and maybe QQ, we're deviating from our own logical premise. Are we gambling or not? If not, why take a 20% chance we'll lose with AA? If we are, why not actually try to put this guy on a range?

I'd rather call with 88 and lose to A2 than call with KK/QQ and lose to AA, simply because of the nature of the wager - I was wagering on whether or not I was right in my assessment of what V was doing. If we think he has AA, we should fold everything, including AA. If we think he's screwing around with hands like A2, we should call with 88.

If he shows A2, I guessed right, win or lose. If he shows AA, I guessed wrong, win or lose. Calling with KK/QQ isn't going to make me feel better about losing. The nature of the wager is guessing right when we DON'T have AA. Refusing to accept the wager without AA in H1 isn't much different than refusing to go all-in without the nuts.

Say you called in H1. Good call because we had the best hand and were a 2:1 favorite, or dumb because we risked $134 to win $136 and only had 88? What if he showed AKo before we decided? We'd have been a slightly better than even-money favorite, yet we'd still be risking $134 to win $136.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-12-2024 , 11:59 PM
88 seems close, probably lean call cause we can dominate and have the good side of a flip often. AK call for sure.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-13-2024 , 05:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adonson
I'm so happy you responded, thank you. During both hands, I thought about this post you made about a similar scenario. Your point: we don't really make much money by flipping for 2 dollars in blinds.

It's of course player and read dependent. Against V in Hand 1 in a previous hand, I had a bluff catcher, and I had called V down. There, he had the goods, and I lost a lot of money. It's just hard to play against someone who is mostly competent, then goes on tilt unexpectedly.
MLark's point only applies to the person first entering the pot. But for you it's different because now you have a lot of money to win vs someone w/ a wide range.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-13-2024 , 07:26 AM
Oh the 88 hand you arent in amazing shape even against a 20% range (youd be about 52%, which is good enough to call, but not like youre crushing his range). With it being 10:50, i doubt he chose to just blind ship, so hes got some sort of semi reasonable range.


On the AKo hand thats gonna be TT+ AK 100% of the time, easy fold.


When someone raises 134x of blinds, even with a 20% range, you can exploit even just by calling with AA KK.

If youre gonna play with V1 regularly, keep an eye out near his end of session to see if he makes regular sized raises with the top of his range like QQ+, because if he does, you can call his end of session ships much wider, because hes shipping with a capped range and making normal sized raises with his premiums.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-13-2024 , 12:01 PM
I think you can flip a coin in H1, 88 is pretty good and it's hard to have pairs ... plus it can look good if you are playing again. Some people will randomly have AA/KK here a lot, but it doesn't sound like this guy. 88 is on the edge, 66 I'd fold a lot 77 I'd mostly fold and TT I'd want to call without good reads not to.


H2 is a pretty easy fold IMO. Even AKs/QQ is borderline.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote
03-13-2024 , 12:21 PM
FWIW, I call both spots.
Two Hands with All-In Open-Bets by Players about to Leave the Table Quote

      
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