Hello, how are you?

Playing 1/3 NL. Had been playing at a miserable table with zero action for the past hour or two, then requested a table change, which I was given.

Arrived at the new table with approximately $650. Of the nine others at the table, I was able to recognize one of them and could recall an enormous mistake he had made against me several weeks prior. (I decided to initially sit short with $100. Opened MP to $10 with 99. Villain 3B OTB to $30, folds to my shove.) He's a relatively young guy and is well known by the other regulars and the dealers there. I think he fell victim to not being aware of my stack size. Whatever it was, it was baffling.

Anyhow, at this new table, I quickly notice the three players to my right each have somewhere between 150-200 BB but do not seem to have much of a clue what they're doing. In the SB this hand was who I'd refer to as the table's "action player." For several consecutive orbits he'd straddle the button for $10-15, and also seemed to grasp the concept of isolating limpers fairly wide in position. I decided given the incompetent players to my right, and given the fact that the action dude was in the SB, it might be good to open/ISO most decent hands.

Hand:
Younger guy (mentioned before) open limps UTG. A woman to his left also limps. I look down at 76 and make it $20 to go.
Folds around to the SB (action guy) who flats, kid flats, woman flats.

Flop: ($83) Q85
Action checks around to hero, who decides to check through.
(In retrospect I think this flop should have been bet 90%+ of the time, but the SB did have a somewhat high c/r frequency)

Turn: ($83) 9
SB leads for $40. Action folds to hero.

Looking for suggestions here on raise sizing and how to proceed with the hand on the river should the raise be called. We're playing for roughly $450 effective at this point.

Board: Q859

So, for example, say my turn raise is called, here are some troublesome rivers:
A spade
A jack
A ten

So, thoughts on proceeding with bad cards vs. clean cards on river?

Thx.

Actually the 76 is not the nuts on the turn there I have noticed. So it is true that the thread title might not be 100% "correct." However, maybe my hand can be considered what I've heard called the "virtual nuts."

Agree that checking flop was a mistake but oh well.

Raise to $140, if called that leaves $310 behind and a $340 pot and with those stacks I'm firing on every single river. Don't think "a jack or ten puts a 4-straight on the board", think "he is making a mistake to call that raise with a gutshot".

He's probably calling the raise with {55, 88, 99, 76, JT, AQss, A9ss}... if he's calling with any naked draws that's a huge spew, you're still ahead if he's calling tighter.

I raise PSR-ish (maybe just a tad under since there's only one card to come and that will leave a bit less than a PSB behind). Call it $175ish.

Then I'd shove almost all rivers. Your hand is super disguised and if he's calling a PSR OTT with any naked draw, he's much worse than you thought. only hand that I think he might flat with here that has a draw is AsQs, and given description I'd guess he's shoving that OTT for us.

am i the only one that would flat this turn?

It's so disguised that it's not even the nuts. If you bet the flop J-10 generally folds. If J10 is in there you often get stacked here. It was a good flop for you, so c-bet it. Also, by checking it makes your hand seem even more powerful when you check-raise turn (ie you were slow playing a set or you had a straight draw and hit...ex, J-10 will often check back that flop).

Regardless, of how you messed up the flop, you have to raise the turn. BTW, I don't like the preflop raise to 20 with 76, particularly at a new table.

Yes. Way too many draws to flat turn.
Also you guys are so deep, not raising here is really bad.

Raise to 150ish
Shipping all rivers seems like the best plan to me, because a lot of the "scare" cards for you are the same "scare" cards for him.

I would raise to 115. I see little reason to make it such a huge amount. The last thing we want is to scare them off two pair. Smaller raises also leave more perceived fold equity behind and make it possible we are bluffing.

We don't have the effective nuts. We have the second nuts. The effective nuts is a situation where it is not possible by the way the hand has played out for our opponent to have the nuts. Not the case here

No offense, but I hope so. Board is wet, our hand is disguised and we are deep. All good reasons to raise and look to play for stacks.

This, but I would decide to shove all scare rivers just 50% of the time by looking at my watch to randomized my play in this tough spot (if second hand is on left, shove, if on right, check). Turn is obvious raise and if we get shipped into on river we evaluate.

I'd bet the flop. The turn is an obvious

i would check back this flop. Considering all the draws out there, and the facts that we only have 3 nut outs and no pair outs, i'm not looking to barrel most turns with our hand even if we get it HU. a flop bluff will not win very often and we can't barrel too often, I do like checking back.

I'm definitely raising the turn to around $120, but i'm not stacking off if he jams.

he's going to call our raise with any 2 pair, and some pair + draws ( ie, 97s, AQs, etc) and should be flatting sets. I expect him to jam a str8.

Our hand looks like a 2pair and str8s. We'd value bet the flop with AQ & sets, and we never play a flush draw this way.

After he flats, I'm bet/folding on a queen and checking back on a J or T. if he donks big on a J or T, i'd probably just fold. If he donks out big on a queen, again, i'm prob just folding.

A spade is gross, but i'd prob check back or just fold. I doubt anyone is capable of turning a set or 2pair into a bluff there ( until they show me). He can't just have a str8 draw that's bluffing at a flush card, so i'm just folding.

Thanks for the input guys. After consideration it does seem to me that opting to bet the flop here is good for a couple reasons:
1. When SB villain check/calls a flop bet here it becomes fairly easy to discount JT from his range, while it is more difficult to do so given the actual action.
2. Betting the flop and turning the 4 or the 9 allows us to more easily play for stacks OTT/OTR.
3. The hand becomes even more disguised on this board with a flop bet (I believe).

Here are the results of the hand following the villain's donk turn bet, for anyone interested:

Hero raises to $110 total.
Villain calls.
(Pot: $303)

The river comes what I think was the absolute worst possible card for my hand, the Js.
I don't have very animated facial expressions, but that river falling gave me a sensation of disgust and I may have telegraphed that slightly to the rest of the table.

The villain fidgets around for a few moments before sliding forward a stack of red with a few other reds on the side ($120 total). I was going to check behind the river had it been checked to me.

This was a terrible position to be in. This particular opponent came across to me as the "bluffy" type, someone who would make this sort of bet in an attempt to steal the pot in this situation.

I elected to tank call. Villain flipped over QJ, I scooped the pot. I don't know what his line of thinking was on the river - whether he was consciously attempting to turn his two pair into a bluff (as marcoSolo thought would be highly unusual) or if he thought I may have called with worse.

In the grand scheme of things I think this should've been a fold. In the long run I think it's probably a losing call. Sometimes in the heat of the moment, in confrontations such as this one, my analytical abilities take a backseat to pure emotion, which is something to be avoided. I remember thinking after he led the river, "this is probably not the best call, but I think I might call anyway (kinda out of curiosity)."

Any further comments are very welcome

He only bet $120 into a pot of $303. An opponent will generally bet strong if they have a flush here. He could have a scared 10, or some other hand with showdown value but there is no way that you should fold here given the favorable pot odds.

If you're going to raise 76ss, you should be c-betting most flops that 'hit' you. This would be one of those flops.

As played, raise to $120-$140 on turn. We need to build the pot. Action player has shown interest in the hand, which means we should be thinking about how to play for stacks OTR.

I'm usually betting 45-60 on the flop and betting around 120-160 on turn. I can see checking flop as the safe route, but I think you have a legitmate chance of taking pot down with flop bet and you always have your draw to fall back on. The slight chance you get blown off your hand on flop is a small risk I'd be willing to take here.

I think you played it fine. Betting flops like this into what I remember was three opponents seems bad if we are not prepared to barrel off.

The turn bet is fine. Making enormous raises on the turn is only good if the guy has shown himself to be a braindead moron. Just because someone is an action player doesn't mean they are terrible. His river bet is a blocker bet cause he doesn't want to face a huge river bet.

If V had a high c/r frequency then you are 100% CORRECT by NOT cbetting. You flop a great draw so sure, the "normal" thing to do is to cbet, however if you are up against an aggro villain who is capable of betting you off your draw and destroying your implied odds and nullifying your fold equity then the correct play is to check flop and AINEC.

obvious raise, around $140


First off, the turn raise should not give odds to the flush draw so it needs to be a little more, but its not terrible. However, since V is aggro its not a bad raise since it can come across as a move you are making and induce him to reraise you.

Okay, here is where we need to ascend one level higher and go from Level II to Level III.

When you are up against an aggro V capable of making moves, DON'T FEAR RIVER SCARE CARDS

Since your V is aggro and "obviously" capable of making moves, you should not only be okay with betting this river but you can COMFORTABLY bet/call this river or even raise/call this river.

I want you to think about that.

If V was a nit or ABC player or a TAG that didn't make moves, then you absolutely should fear a lead out bet by villain or easily bet/fold this river if it is checked to you.

But if V is a maniac or aggro or ego centric player that likes to make moves and is aggressive, then you should be able to put a SIGNIFICANT amount of air in their hands come scary rivers since they will find "making a move" irresistable and often either make a move or turn their made hand into a bluff.

His river bet is a nice blocking bet / thin value bet combo.

Considering that he got you to tank call with a straight, his river bet isn't all that bad. Its a combination blocking bet that almost got you to fold a better hand but at the same time you probably would have called with AA or KK as well so he gets value from hands he still beats. Lastly, he reserves the option to bet/fold river.

Lastly, I think this villain may be better than you think or are giving him credit for. He didn't play this hand all that bad given the board texture. Plus, to me, a thing that sticks out that separates good players from potentially "really" good players is his river bet.

Of course, I'd need to see more hands from this V but based on this one hand, he doesn't appear to be the typical rec fish imo.

+1 Also from the original post, 3betting from the button and folding to a shove is not an obvious big mistake. It shows he is capable of 3betting lighter than most regs.

NEVER NEVER NEVER check this flop.

You have to bet and make JT fold on this flop. If you have players who are any good in the hand, you need to make sure you don't bet an amount that will get a caller or two for cheap. If you have someone experienced in late or good relative postion and he sees a couple callers on this flop, he may very well call with JT knowing he's trapping 67 if he binks a 9 on turn.

Again, never check this flop. You're going to get yourself stacked a decent amount of time with a turn 9.

Why do you think he's a "bluffy type"??? Do you have any specific reads or past history other than he apparently 3bet you light and folded to a shove in just one hand?

Make sure you have a reason for your "read".

Is everyones standard really to cbet this flop? The action is 4 way...I would suspect that we will have at least one caller the majority of the time. While this was a pretty great turn we are pretty much always stuck with a 7 high open ender ott after our flop cbet. And what happens if we hit our straight but it fills in the FD? I dunno the entire hand was played pretty well imo. Betting flop is not my favorite play here. The rest of the hand though has already been explained pretty well, raise turn and call river.