Commerce 5/5, $500 eff

Villain is Asian OMC who pretty tight passive. I've seen him mix in limps pre with stuff like AK/QQ. Seems fit or fold postflop.

Hero with 79 in HJ
Villain in UTG+1 limps
Hero limps (table relatively passive pre, BTN/blinds not squeezing light)
BTN, SB, BB limp as well

Flop [$25]: TT8
Checks to BTN, who bets 20
Blinds fold, V and Hero call

Turn [$85]: 6
SB, BB, V check
Hero bets $55
BTN calls
Villain raises to $160

Hero?

Trivial fold against an OMC who just turn X/R'd into two people? Is he ever doing this with just AT?

Pre is reasonable but against a fit-or-fold player I prefer raising, it's just free money to isolate those players. I'd be more prepared to limp with a bad suited ace or a small pair. Using hands like 97s to speculatively see flops is overrated, like sure, limp it on the button after limpers or whatever, but if there's any alternative, you want to be going for that instead.

Lead like $15 on flop. As played, just fold to his bet. You're barely getting direct odds to draw and are drawing through a paired board. It's possible you are drawing dead to a runner runner straight flush already. The OMC check-calling should be setting off alarm bells. This is a pretty good illustration of the problem with playing 97s speculatively, you flop junk like this or like 9 high flush draws, stuff that is not even close to nut draws. You'd much rather be heads up here and using the draw as backup to just winning the pot with aggression.

OTT, V might just have a bare T, the problem is that the best case is that he has a quarter of the deck to win and the worst case is that you're drawing completely dead. You're going to have to call not just this but a river bet as well. Just fold.

+1. ChrisV on his game as per usual.

nice post you said everything I was gonna say.

Except for the bolded part, gotta be careful with that thinking "well if I call turn I have to call river" or "I can't call turn planning to just fold the river if he bets again"; it's limiting thinking.

Break,

If he has JT/QT/KT/AT does he bet again on the river?

He's repping very few combos which beat you. 88/T8s if he even limps that is only 4 combos. 66 folds flop. We don't block any Tx which could easily be in his range. He could be overplaying a big pair that played passively. There are far too many combos you still beat compared to those that beat you to fold yet. We know which rivers are bad for us. I'm calling and going broke with this hand on non board pairing rivers, maybe letting go on A/9/7 rivers, too if he jams.

+1. It is clear that Villain thinks he has a monster. Problem is, our monster might beat his. If you're confident this guy is running like 9/4 VPIP/PFR, then you can fold because he has eights full every time. But if his VPIP is 20, then he can have all combos of AT pre, which is already twice as many combinations as those that beat our hand, not to mention unlikely-but-possible worse Tx and three combos of 97s that we chop with.

i dont think i find a fold here unless he is a true OMC. old dudes, who are tight passive, spazz all the time. i think a straight is good enough to not fold.

if he is a true OMC nit and we are confident he is not spazzing Tx, then sure fold. but if hes just some old dude who is tight passive, i have to believe he is capable of spazzing here with some Tx

I think i'd call/eval river every time here, but it's basically lighting $100 on fire, as i'd fold most, if not all, of his river shoves.

Also agree with raise pre so you can try and win this hand with aggression or making a hand.

In this case if the V limp/calls pre, c/c flop, then c/r turn, it's a much easier fold.

Indeed

Having played around in Equilab a bit, it's definitely close. I feel like the OMC line is usually x/r flop with just a T, but could be wrong.

Maaaybe I could see him firing AT again OTR, definitely not JT/QT/KT for thin value.

In my experience, I haven't really ever seen old dudes at 5/5 going crazy with just an overpair on this kind of board. Maybe at 1/3, but I feel like OMCs are 5/5 aren't spazzing like that.

OTTH

Hero calls 160, BTN tanks for a long time and folds.

River [$450]: 4
Villain leads for 180
Hero?

Complete brick and villain small bets the river. Are you considering raising? Because we can't be thinking of folding now.

AP I call.

Obviously I can't speak for ChrisV, but I don't think that's necessarily what he was saying, that you must call a river bet if you call a turn bet. His post was geared towards why the hand should have been folded before now, so to me it seemed like he was just pointing out that OP is unlikely to get to showdown simply by calling this turn bet, and that he'd often be facing a river bet as well. I think he was just pointing out that this hand is likely to be more expensive than just calling the turn bet, not that OP absolutely must call a river bet just because he calls the turn bet.