I normally try to be more detailed than this post, but in this particular hand, hero had just sat down and was bleary eyed from recently waking up and wasnt paying a ton of attention. I dont actually remember the exact flop or action or even what villans looked like, but its been on my mind for a while since ive come home, so I can approximate what happened.
Hero raises from MP to $15 preflop with 6d6h. effective stacks are $300-500.
btn calls
SB calls
BB calls.
Flop (60) Qs9s5h
everyone checks. I figured not really worth betting because someone probably hit a piece of the flop.
Turn (60) 6s
SB bets $25, BB calls, hero ???
Obviously I am in pretty good shape, Im not super worried about the flush. Calling is the best chance I have to extract value from a Q. The problem with calling is i give tons of outs to any spade, as well as any 7 any 8. The problem with raising is im probably folding out everything worse, and im in a tough spot if i get 3 bet over the top and may well have to fold my 10 river outs.
cosine with above - folding and not having the opportunity to realize your FH potential just sucks and while there are some combos that you're ahead of that might call that raise, it not enough to warrant a raise. Also I think its worth mentioning that SB didnt attempt a squeeze here so while I dont think our standard villain is making sick squeeze plays here that often, I think we have to at least entertain the possibility that a few combos we're well ahead of at present might not be in SBs range.
I would look at other things villain does, how he throws in his chips, posture, etc to help give some weight to the lack of squeeze and if it truly has merit to adjust our ranging or not.
we are looking at 14 river cards we really dont like, but i agree the right move seems to be call. If i am raising to fold out the draws, i couldve just done that with air i think. Makes me think this wouldve been a good bluffingspot with air, if it folds out FDs and Qs, it would have plenty of fold equity...right?
so i think its obvious from the question, but results
