2-5 at a Small Cardroom in NW FL roughly $1000 effective

Villain is a mid 30s guy, kinda loud, has had a few drinks. Don't have a super strong read on him but seems to be playing semi loose

Villain opens to $20 from LJ, folds to hero in SB with Jc10c, Hero 3! to $85, V call

Flop ($175)

Kc 9d 7d

Hero bets $60, V calls

Turn ($295)

Qh

Hero bets $200, V calls

River ($695)

2d

Hero ????

He shouldn't have a ton of FD's after calling a 3bet of 85 pre (aside of course from AKdd, AQdd). In these spots I usually either block bet or check call, but we still wanna get value on our hand too so I would just bet a normal size (too small and he might take advantage and bluff/riase) like 250.

Probably check eval. Not a ton of worse hands that will call a 3rd barrel on a flush completing river after your fired so big ott.

I would go bigger on the turn, $250-$300. There are so many hands to get value from.

River, I don't know why Playbig thinks V won't have a ton of FDs. A3dd-AKdd, QJdd, QTdd are all possible and reasonable to peel pre IP, especially if he's playing semi-loose. I would bet 50% and evaluate. It would be a disaster to have this checked through.

Was trying to set up a PSJ on a clean river - but I didn't get one of those

I get that, but I think the value is to be had on the turn mostly, and not so much coolering 2prs on the river. There are SO many hands to get value from that won't fold to a big bet. 2prs, Pair + SD, FDs. Also, the single pair and small 2pr hands will likely hero fold the river to a PSJ, along with missed FDs. If we bet bigger on the turn and make the price on the river that much better, it will be more likely we get called by weak 2prs and single pairs and we got more value from the FDs.

Of course those are all possible but it's only a small fraction of his range, so I wouldn't say he has a ton of them (with no reads people don't usually call an $85 3bet pre with baby suited aces or even QTs).

Checking here is the worst option, it allows villain to play perfectly. He's never value betting AK or 2 pair on this runnout b/c it's so scary, villain will check back with w/all the hands that beat you and bet his flushes. I like a $200 bet here to try to get value out of Kx type hands. It would suck to fold to a jam but I doubt he raises w/worse b/c they are just so rare at these stakes.

Turn bet is fine overall.


Both LJ and SB will have quite a bit of flushes in their range. Most of the suited Ax as well as all the suited broadways.


Depending on player pool there in 3bet pots, if you won't induce a spew raise with something like 1/3 pot, you can bet/fold this river pretty easily for about $2-250.


If it might induce a play that gets you blown off your equity, you can either check/call or bet/fold $3-350.




His only real bluffs are AK and AQ with Ad. Sometimes AQ with Qd. So unless you have history with V, you'll likely have to fold to a jam.

Check/call is the worst play. I’d just jam and try to get value from QQ/99/77/KQ, maybe AdKx. You said the guy is pretty loose and is drinking…I don’t think he’s letting go of top two, much less a set.

If you jam and he calls all his sets and his flushes it’s kind of a breakeven play. Jamming is only very bad if you think he’ll let go of sets and you only get called by flushes.

Bet $250 and fold to a jam could also be a pretty good play, and might be better than jamming.

If ppl are planning to fold to a jam, then jus c/c. That's would be pretty bad.

We don't know him at all, and no one can really have an accurate read on someone after playing with them for only a short period of time. And if we check and he jams, it would be 655 into 695 it's not even a psb. If he figures he can bluff us off the hand or turn his hand into a bluff (since our range should include a lot of over pairs from his perspective) it would be a good play for him, especially if we end up folding.

If I said it once I said it a thousand times, there's never enough information in one sentence about someone to make an accurate assumption of his range. For example, what does semi loose mean? Does he limp call a lot pre? Has he even ever flatted a 3bet before that we're aware of (or has he even been involved in a 3bet pot yet at all) these are valid questions which if we were in the game would have better information to make the best play. If we don't know any of these things then I wouldn't assume he would call with mediocre suited B'ways or aces.

If you bet 250, it's only 400 more into 1600 if he jams. There was no indication at all indicating he's a nit (there's actually info that he could be the opposite) especially someone who's loud and drinking.

*results aren't allowed until 1621z (11:21 est.)

If we check, and he jams, what hand does he have as a bluff? Mind you, he called a 2/3 PSB on the turn. Is he calling a 2/3 PSB with AcQx on the turn? Maybe but maybe not. Is he bluffing river with AcKx (I think he’d just check back w that hand). I don’t see any other hands with Ad he could plausibly have that calls on turn. Meanwhile he has a good number of combos of flushes, at least 8 combos here: ATdd-AKdd and KQdd/KJdd/QJdd/JTdd. Maybe 65dd. Maybe some more suited aces if he’s drinking and playing a bit loose.

If he‘s finding a lot of bluffs on the river then he’s probably playing too loose on an earlier street, like if he somehow gets to river with AdJx then he’s playing too loose pre and too loose on turn…and in that case he definitely has all his suited aces in his preflop range. So yes, he has a few more bluffs with AdJx but then he has a lot more flushes because of A3dd-A6dd/A8dd/A9dd. So it all balances out and we still can’t call.

All that is to say that we can’t really check/call river vs a jam unless we think he value bets worse.

Very standard river bet as played - villain shouls not have many flushes or boats.

Here are the results:

Hero bets $225 and villain open folds KQss

I felt like I was probably too thin if a fairly active V was folding this hand, but maybe not

Well played

V did a bad fold especially for that sizing. Maybe he thought you must have a flush since he blocks all the pairs. But for that sizing its a sigh call for sure.

I’d make a mental note and over bluff this player in the future.