$1/3 game $300 effective. UTG raises to $10. 2 callers. I call on the button with J 10 offsuit. The small blind folds and the big blind calls. Pot is $60.

Flop is A J 10, rainbow. It checks around to the player on my right who bets $20. I call planning to raise the turn if a card 10 or lower falls. Big blind calls. Other players fold. Pot is $100.

Turn is an offsuit 4, completing the rainbow.

The big blind who'd been pretty active lately, winning pots without showdown, leads for $40. The flop better folds.

What's is the big blind's range here, and how do we react to his turn lead?

I call and call rivers of J or less.

Some reads on BB would be helpful. I'd range him on KQ, AJ, AT, A4, JT, AQ, maybe AK (though he may 3-bet pre), the two total remaining combos of JJ and TT, KJ, QJ, KT, QT, 98, some random Ax and some unknown amount of spaz.

I probably call turn. Don't think our hand is strong enough to protect, and his best draw (AQ) only has 9 outs. We never fold out better if we're betting, and hard to know how he reacts with worse. On any river below a T I call a river bet and bet if checked to. On an A, K or Q river I evaluate based on sizing and check back if checked to. Obviously looking to gii on a J or T river.

Villain's bet sizing is horrible if he has us beat. I'd call turn and most rivers that aren't obviously terrible for us.

You can't expect someone to answer this with that meager description of that player. What you're saying is that BB is a random player.

That said, this type of action is often a "blocking bet" trying to set the price of the street. He thought if he checked the betting might be big and he'd then be required to fold. So the answer is likely bet pot and watch him fold.

It seems as if he had the nuts he'd bet more than half pot. He wouldn't block the street at that price because he'd be shooting himself in the foot.


This is actually not a good play, IMO. It's obvious why we do it; position and not enough card strength to raise but too much to fold. However, I believe it is correct to raise; pot would be a $45 raise.

Pretty sure it's incorrect to raise in a limit game, but we need some PF semi-bluffs and this is an excellent spot. Any remaining players will almost always check it to you on the flop.

AP, raise the flop. There's TONS of worse hands that will want to continue. Don't MUBS, value bet. Your position is precarious but have confidence that you can play the runout well. Make it $50 or a bit more and get a read.

Raise flop, our hand is too vulnerable to slowplay and the bet is small enough that a lot of hands can try to catch up

As played raising the turn is a bit awkward given stacks, maybe minraise and think about checking back some rivers

2 aces, 4 kings, 3 queens and 3 fours.

Preflop is a little debatable. I'd snap call here with JTs (or *perhaps* squeeze), but JTo is quite a lot weaker. But the raise size is *so* small (just 3% of stacks) and we'll be seeing a most likely 5+ way flop in the best position, I can't hate too much on a call here.

Even though we have two pair, we actually have quite a weak hand here given there are so many other commonly played hands that beat us here (KQ, AJ, AT). I would never consider raising at any point in this hand. I would probably call flop and turn bets and then evaluate river (player dependent), knowing that being in position we'll be able to put a bet in if he checks. If we're thinking of auto stacking off here to non-stupid turn cards, I think we should fold preflop.

The turn lead from EP into the flop better and a caller is *very* strong, imo. He's got to think either the better or caller probably has an Ace, and yet he doesn't care. Therefore the absolute weakest part of his range is AK/AQ, and those hands could have easily 3bet the weak open preflop with all the dead money. The difficult thing is that this guy has been active and winning pots without showing down. I'd actually hero fold here a lot (although I'd need better reads), but against this guy perhaps not (especially if he is active enough to 3bet a weak open with AJ/AT/KQ preflop).

GtoughspotG

Do we want him to fold if he has a worse hand?

ETA: Saw your next post, true enough, he does have a lotta outs with some of the top end.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Correct; that's the gist of the HH. He seems to be "making a move" on the pot, but he's not using enough chips to truly "lay claim." It's like he made a mistake and left a big chip in his stack.

It might just be coincidence but in my personal experience it happens OTT in a 3 way pot and he's first to act. What happened is he flopped a fat draw and the turn card missed. Go Holly Holm head kick on his ____.

Good post. TYVM.

Then there's this: I agree that sometimes villain will have a big hand in this spot, and sometimes he'll have a draw and he's turn donking to try to freeze the action/set the bet size.

What I'm trying to work out is when the turn donk is a made hand and when it's a draw. I assume if we're multi-way and other players have shown significant strength on previous streets, then its more likely to be a made hand.

On the other hand, if we're heads up and the in position player made a standard c-bet on the flop, then its more likely to be a draw. Yet I've seen players turn donk with the nuts in this spot too.

I guess hand reading the villain's range is a really good tie breaker to use in game.

Thoughts?

Also, I'll do a Flopzilla analysis of villain's combos in this hand later today and post it here.

So I ran the hand on Flopzilla giving villain credit for open ended straight draws, 2pair+, sets of jacks and tens, straights, and all of the broadway cards (he'll have at least a pair and gutshot with all of these, obviously). Here's the exact range I used: JJ-TT,AKo-ATo,A4o,KQo-KTo,QJo-Q9o,JTo,98o,AKs-ATs,A4s,KQs-KTs,QJs-Q9s,JTs,98s.

Hero's hand is 56.7% versus that range. Still, I agree with GG that a call is in order.

This time you are fine with that bottom two pair but in general other weak bottom two must be player very very smooth in order not to get stacked. Other big nonsense bottom two pair can be counterfeit by the river and we can be in big big BIG trouble if playing them blindly.

You're in a situation where you are a 57:43 favorite against a range, but calling isn't the best play against any part of that range. If you were a massive favorite, say 75:25, then I would agree that calling was acceptable.

The problem with calling in general is that it reinforces passive tendencies and provides no lessons regarding outplaying your opponents. I.e. it teaches you to focus on card strength and ignore more important aspects of the game.

If this hand was limit hold'em, I think I would tend to agree with how you played it. But it's not.

Actually, I did raise the turn bet to $120. He jammed and then I felt pot stuck. In retrospect, and irrespective of the fact that he re-raised, I believe the correct play was to call the turn bet.

It's not correct against any part of his range. Except possibly J9. If you're behind, you need him to stack off on the river every time you're best and you need to fold the river every time you're not, to make the call +EV. Quite the parlay.

Fold pre flop. Calling a UTG raise 100BB deep with JTo is usually spew. I suppose you can play it if you looked to the left and saw both blinds ready to call. Even then it's marginal.

Bottom two is a medium-strong hand. I'd plan to call down and get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. Any hand that calls a raise will beat bottom two. The BB probably has you beat. A call oop then a turn donk usually means a strong hand. You can't rule out AK/AQ/A4. Call the turn and prepare to call any reasonable bet on the river.

This is the key for me. If this were HU and we just made some weak ass bet when checked to in position, ok, sure, he might donk out some draws on the turn. But this was a bet and a call, which is much stronger. If he has a draw, he knows a donk isn't going to work as much (it won't take down the pot multiway nearly as much as HU) plus it has much more chance of being raised (a disaster).

GcluelessNLnoobG

[QUOTE=gobbledygeek;50628101]Do we want him to fold if he has a worse hand?

ETA: Saw your next post, true enough, he does have a lotta outs with some of the top end.

GcluelessNLnoobG[/QUO

to me its an obvious blocker with probably a pair and gut shot. I would raise, but not full pot, because I want the call. go to a 130 and watch him squirm/call, and hopefully he misses or catches a jack to go with his KJ or QJ so you can get the rest. Four liner comes off and he moves at it I guess sigh fold.

I think you're giving him too much credit (than needed). Board texture, his style, and his previous action. If he's a nit, this is an obvious fold.

Against others, try not to get into this spot and try to get better hand definition on the first two streets. In late position, don't offer the blinds good odds if you do choose to come in. You're just making it hard on yourself.

Just to be clear, I said I'd hero fold a lot here but *perhaps* not against this guy; really read dependent, but folding would be my default play here.

GcluelessNLnoobG