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Turn sizing Turn sizing

05-08-2024 , 07:30 PM
5/5 e500
Ep fish 15
Co fish flats
Hero BTN Ad4d to 55.
Ep calls
Co calls
3 ways
(175) flop Ks8d5d
X x hero bets 45.
Ep calls.
Co folds.
Hu
(265) turn 2c
X hero? (400 behind)

My default here is to bet 115 and then bluff river if I miss, I find that going geo-geo doesn’t give the river bet enough fold equity. (50p/50p)

But I’ve seen the solver over-geo in some turn spots like this. Betting like 210 here and leaving like 30p behind for the river.

It seems like an interesting size to pick and then never bluff river exploitatively. And therefore probably better to do with NFD rather than a hand like 6d7d

Of course the last option is to just jam turn but I’m pretty sure that’s the worst of all worlds.
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05-08-2024 , 07:38 PM
65 pre
jam flop ainec otherwise just call pre with only 100 bb's fr man
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05-08-2024 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
65 pre
jam flop ainec otherwise just call pre with only 100 bb's fr man

How is it not close? There’s a ton of hands that will call a small flop bet and then fold to turn regardless of our size, so we capture an extra 45 from those any time we take my line. Not to mention how much better it is in terms of grand strategy.
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05-08-2024 , 08:23 PM
EP has a lot of middling pairs and might fold Kx to a jam. Plenty of equity if called, just ship it.
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05-08-2024 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
How is it not close? There’s a ton of hands that will call a small flop bet and then fold to turn regardless of our size, so we capture an extra 45 from those any time we take my line. Not to mention how much better it is in terms of grand strategy.
You're too shallow there's not enough room. You have 445 and the pot is 175. If you bet small and someone calls they're not folding to a turn jam. You have to use your FE rn instead of later when it diminishes into the wind.
Turn sizing Quote
05-08-2024 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
There’s a ton of hands that will call a small flop bet and then fold to turn regardless of our size, so we capture an extra 45 from those any time we take my line.
When stacks are shallow, you don't have many options.

check flop

as played - check turn

I'm not sure, but I feel like the chance that one of your opponents has a king is close to 50%? Hate jamming on the flop, but it's never bad with your hand.
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05-08-2024 , 09:50 PM
I like your small flop. So now I can jam turn.
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05-08-2024 , 10:19 PM
I see bet/bet/bet as the best way to play a polarized range vs a catching range.
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05-08-2024 , 10:24 PM
I think the solvers prefer bluffing turn and giving up on the river with our missed flush draws. Problem is it's a 3B pot and V called our flop c-bet on a king high flop. Not sure he's folding turn often enough to spend all our ammunition here, leaving us too little for the river.

Doesn't seem like we're deep enough to effectively bluff turn AND river, unless we go small on one or the other street.

Since we bet so small on flop, I could see putting in a smaller, milky looking turn bet, to save some ammunition for the river.

Like, you could bet $80 on turn. The pot will be $425, and we'll have $320 left if we want to barrel river.

It may look weak, but it's a sizing we might take with some weaker KXdd combos, like KJ or KT - top pair, meh kicker, hoping to improve or get to a cheap showdown when we're up against better KX, or maybe QJdd that's unwilling to commit too much to the semi-bluff.

Nice thing about it is V will feel compelled to raise with thick but vulnerable value, which helps define his hand some. If he flat calls, odds are he's also on some sort of draw or has some weak value that can't beat top pair.

Meanwhile if we spike an offsuit 3 and blast off it'll look fishy AF and might get loose calls, or if we spike an ace we can go for thin value. If he's got the Kd he'll think we're FOS when we make our flush.

Downside is I wouldn't love jamming river as a bluff when we bet so small on earlier streets. Think I'd just give up and check back a lot when we take this line. It's really unbalanced to only bet the river for value, and not follow through with our bluffs, but most V's won't catch on too quickly when we'll mostly be mucking after they show first. We could be folding a worse 1P for all they know.

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05-08-2024 , 11:17 PM
i dont like 3betting this hand vs an EP raiser with shallow stacks. just call.

as played idk i guess 3/4 pot it. i dont see what jam accomplishes that 3/4 pot doesnt. you are targeting pairs < K.

i like A4s as a 3b vs a late position raise with deep stacks when OTB or CO.
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05-09-2024 , 07:57 PM
I also agree with nitty old man we're 100 bb's deep in 5/5 (a game that usually runs deep so we're probably the ss) with an unknown UTG raiser, A4s is seriously button pressing. However, if we decide to do it (if that's your style), we got the second best flop we could ever wish for. Jam the flop now to utilize all of your FE while you have it and while people aren't further committed a small bet otf would be horrible if someone calls and we blank the turn then what is he really folding KQ for less than a psb otr (I don't think so of course but that's just me).
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