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Turn Decision Turn Decision

05-29-2018 , 10:51 AM
Game is $2/$4 NL. $500 max. Toughest game I have sat in for some time, with 4 or so V's more than competent, lots of 3! pre, and not too many marks. Hero should be viewed as TAG due mostly to being card dead. Have reached showdown only once where Hero turned 4th pair and missed str8 draw into a bluff when front door flush came in...V called with bottom set. However, V in this current hand was not at the table for that hand. This is 4 hours into a 5.5 hour session.

V in this hand is solid. He sat down and proceeded to get dealt KK, AA and AKs on his first three hands and lost all three to various suckouts. However, he took it completely in stride and has not tilted at all. He has ~$900 and Hero covers.

OTTH:

V raises to $20 UTG and gets 2 mp callers, folded to Hero OTB who also calls with KJ. Blinds fold.

Flop ($81 after max rake)

567

Checked to Hero. I decide to bet/fold at this pot for the following reasons: I should have a range advantage over V1 on this board and I have very little (if any) drawing equity with my overs. Also, the two other players in the hand looked very disinterested on this flop, so it seemed at best I can get through and at worst if called, I will likely have one opponent and can evaluate the turn. I think this is thin vs 3 others, but didn't think it was awful...thoughts?

Hero bets $55 and gets called by only V1 UTG. HU to the turn:

Turn ($191)

5679

V1 now leads for $135. He has $690 behind and Hero covers.

Hero?
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05-29-2018 , 10:58 AM
I dislike every single action at every point in the hand. You should have folded preflop and you should have just checked back on the flop. The whole hand looks like spew.
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05-29-2018 , 11:04 AM
Flop bet into 3 people here with two red facecards on this kind of flop is definetely spew. Its just wishful thinking to even thinking this is close to +EV bet against 3 other opponents. Turn is a crystal clear fold, for many of the same reasons. We have no hand and no draw whatsoever- and we dont want to compound our spewy flopbet with burning even more money.

I disagree with Vernon regarding preflop though. More than 200 BB deep this is a totally fine call on the button, even vs an early pos opener- two callers in between is also putting extra money into the pot giving us better price+ more options to get paid if we do hit a gin flop or a good draw.
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05-29-2018 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
I dislike every single action at every point in the hand. You should have folded preflop and you should have just checked back on the flop. The whole hand looks like spew.
Man I think I have to agree. This doesn't seem like you at all Shorn based on the advice I see you give in this form. Calling a UTG raise from a good player with KJ pre seems bad.

I will say now that we are here on the turn I think there may be some merit to a raise/fold as you should have a range advantage here as you suggest. But I just don't think we should be here.
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05-29-2018 , 11:09 AM
lol @ folding preflop.
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05-29-2018 , 11:21 AM
Flop bet is spew. It looks like UTG is playing well, playing his range as a check on this board, as he should. As played, I'm not sure what you're thinking about as it is a clear insta fold.
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05-29-2018 , 11:21 AM
Agree with everyone else this is spew. Maybe if you get lucky, the villain has a draw and will fold on the river. But that's a lot of money you had to put in hoping he has a draw.
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05-29-2018 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913
Calling a UTG raise from a good player with KJ pre seems bad.
We don't have KJ, we have KJs, and we're not only calling an UTG Raise. There are 3 players already in the pot. If we call there will be at least 4, with the possibility of at least one or maybe two more (people love to call behind strings of callers). We have a multiway hand with position 225 big blinds deep. Personally I would have most likely 3bet pre since I prefer raising over calling, unless UTG was a tight player with a narrow range.

I don't mind the button stab otf, it is what it is but I'm pretty much giving up after that.
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05-29-2018 , 11:34 AM
Interesting. OK, I guess the flop bet was uber thin despite my reasoning. Fair enough. I had been card dead and perhaps that led me to overplay here...entirely possible as I have problems when I haven't been involved a lot and/or am around even after a number of hours (I call it "Breakeven Tilt").

I will say I disagree with those saying calling KJss OTB with more than 200 bigs is spew though. That part seemed pretty standard to me.

So to Joey's point below, I decided to raise as I just didn't put V on a range that fit that board at all. Solid player from UTG has close to zero 8's in his hand as well as most sets (with he exception of 99, but I discounted that as well since I think he would have bet the flop for equity protection with an OP + gutter.).

I made it $325 to go. Please again critique my logic here if you can put yourself in this spot (and maybe you can't given the flop bet...if so I get it.).

Thx,

Shorn
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05-29-2018 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
We don't have KJ, we have KJs
I believe KJs and KJo are both subsets of KJ.
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05-29-2018 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Interesting. OK, I guess the flop bet was uber thin despite my reasoning. Fair enough. I had been card dead and perhaps that led me to overplay here...entirely possible as I have problems when I haven't been involved a lot and/or am around even after a number of hours (I call it "Breakeven Tilt").

I will say I disagree with those saying calling KJss OTB with more than 200 bigs is spew though. That part seemed pretty standard to me.

So to Joey's point below, I decided to raise as I just didn't put V on a range that fit that board at all. Solid player from UTG has close to zero 8's in his hand as well as most sets (with he exception of 99, but I discounted that as well since I think he would have bet the flop for equity protection with an OP + gutter.).

I made it $325 to go. Please again critique my logic here if you can put yourself in this spot (and maybe you can't given the flop bet...if so I get it.).

Thx,

Shorn
I like the play, although I think 88 may still be in his range, if he is playing his range on the flop and always checking 567.
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05-29-2018 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913
I believe KJs and KJo are both subsets of KJ.

KJ suited. (s=suited).
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05-29-2018 , 11:58 AM
Really interesting hand. Thanks for posting.

I call very wide on the button in this spot. My flatting range here versus UTG open and several callers could be as wide as:

JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AQo-AJo, KQo

To some degree how many of those hands I call with versus fold will be a function of the quality of play of the two other flatters since UTG openers range is likely well established.

When this board is check to me, I am going bet on this board texture nearly 100% of the time. So I love your bet, but I hate your size. When I bet a board texture this frequently I want to down size. A lot. I’m betting a third or a quarter pot. Not more than half. I do this with bluffs, semi’s and value bets.

After betting, the keys are who calls and the number of callers. You expect the UTG player to call, or maybe check raise an overpair but probably call. If the other limpers call then I’m shutting down, unless UTG folded and I hit an off suit K or J then I’ll bluff catch.

Where it gets interesting is if only UTG calls, like what happened here. Depending on my read of UTG I’m going to barrel on any scare card and play the big scare cards that aren’t in his range very aggressively. The 9 of spades is the second best cast in the deck for this line.

If he checks I’m betting again. I read his lead as a blocker bet and I’m shoving. The only hands he can confortably call with is 99. The only time I would deviate from this plan is if my read on V was that he isn’t the type to lay down an overpair which is a huge part of his range at this point. If he isn’t capable of that I fold.

In my opinion that is the fundamental question on this hand. Can V fold an overpair on a terrifying board in a spot where a preceieved TAG is credibly representing a big hand?

If he is, I think it’s an easy move in.

Edit: I just read through the comments. Looks like I play this hand materially different than most of the forum, which to me is pretty interesting.
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05-29-2018 , 11:59 AM
Raising the turn on 0 equity. Wow we're really playing live poker here lol. Congrats on getting it through man. I guess he had KcQc or w/e. No real reason why he can't have 88 or 99 in this spot. As I say, a good player checks his entire UTG range on this flop.
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05-29-2018 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GusMcrae
Really interesting hand. Thanks for posting.

I call very wide on the button in this spot. My flatting range here versus UTG open and several callers could be as wide as:

JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AQo-AJo, KQo

To some degree how many of those hands I call with versus fold will be a function of the quality of play of the two other flatters since UTG openers range is likely well established.

When this board is check to me, I am going bet on this board texture nearly 100% of the time. So I love your bet, but I hate your size. When I bet a board texture this frequently I want to down size. A lot. I’m betting a third or a quarter pot. Not more than half. I do this with bluffs, semi’s and value bets.

After betting, the keys are who calls and the number of callers. You expect the UTG player to call, or maybe check raise an overpair but probably call. If the other limpers call then I’m shutting down, unless UTG folded and I hit an off suit K or J then I’ll bluff catch.

Where it gets interesting is if only UTG calls, like what happened here. Depending on my read of UTG I’m going to barrel on any scare card and play the big scare cards that aren’t in his range very aggressively. The 9 of spades is the second best cast in the deck for this line.

If he checks I’m betting again. I read his lead as a blocker bet and I’m shoving. The only hands he can confortably call with is 99. The only time I would deviate from this plan is if my read on V was that he isn’t the type to lay down an overpair which is a huge part of his range at this point. If he isn’t capable of that I fold.


In my opinion that is the fundamental question on this hand. Can V fold an overpair on a terrifying board in a spot where a preceieved TAG is credibly representing a big hand?

If he is, I think it’s an easy move in.

Edit: I just read through the comments. Looks like I play this hand materially different than most of the forum, which to me is pretty interesting.
The bold is exactly what my thought process was (other than sizing higher on the flop and I find your comments there interesting. I think I sized higher to make it look like a value bet given I had such low actual draw equity).

I certainly did think his bet was odd on the turn given that the board was now a 4-liner and like you, I thought the only hand that would continue was specifically 99. And I made a smaller raise than you suggest to again make it look more value sized as I thought shoving would polarize my range to an 8 or air in his mind. Anyway, thanks for commenting.

Same with me playing this materially different (and quite possibly wrong given the quality of the posters that called it spew).

Shorn
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05-29-2018 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Raising the turn on 0 equity. Wow we're really playing live poker here lol. Congrats on getting it through man. I guess he had KcQc or w/e. No real reason why he can't have 88 or 99 in this spot. As I say, a good player checks his entire UTG range on this flop.
Haven't given results yet, but I understand what you mean by a good player checking his entire range on the flop. That being said, don't you think that the board offers me a range advantage at all?
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05-29-2018 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Haven't given results yet, but I understand what you mean by a good player checking his entire range on the flop. That being said, don't you think that the board offers me a range advantage at all?
Just wanted to chime on even though your question wasnt aimed at me.

Yes, for sure we have a range advantage in this spot. But that fact alone doesent give us green light to start pumping money into the pot with no hand and no draw and close to zero visible equity. That is basically just clicking buttons for no spesific reason.

If you are stabbing with KJ hearts on this flop multiway (some of the absolute worst hands you can have on this board multiway), and also raising the turn, you are gonna be way way overbluffing in these spots as a result.
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05-29-2018 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Haven't given results yet, but I understand what you mean by a good player checking his entire range on the flop. That being said, don't you think that the board offers me a range advantage at all?
Idk what you mean by this. Do you just mean you have more very strong hands otf than he does? Then sure, but if that's what you mean, idk what point you're making.
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05-29-2018 , 12:50 PM
Shorn,

Pre is a call or 3-bet, either is fine. Call is the default and lower stress way to go. Folding is just silly.

Flop is pretty spewy into three opponents with that board. Sometimes it’s just better to give up. But it’s not necessarily as terrible as most are saying. It really depends on how aggressive the middle two players are.

How good or bad turn is depends on a lot of things, but if you’re going to raise, raise a little more.
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05-29-2018 , 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci
Just wanted to chime on even though your question wasnt aimed at me.

Yes, for sure we have a range advantage in this spot. But that fact alone doesent give us green light to start pumping money into the pot with no hand and no draw and close to zero visible equity. That is basically just clicking buttons for no spesific reason.

If you are stabbing with KJ hearts on this flop multiway (some of the absolute worst hands you can have on this board multiway), and also raising the turn, you are gonna be way way overbluffing in these spots as a result.
Great point Petrucci. Hadn't thought of it that way maybe because I had been so card dead that my image vs this V seemed to be pretty snug. But you are right that routinely doing this will way over skew me to bluffing too much. Thanks for pointing it out.
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05-29-2018 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Idk what you mean by this. Do you just mean you have more very strong hands otf than he does? Then sure, but if that's what you mean, idk what point you're making.
So the point I am making is that this flop, in theory, should hit my pre calling range way harder than his pre raising raising range UTG. Meaning, that his most likely holding is still 1 pair on this board (most likely AA-TT). So assuming he is a good player who will realize that he can't just auto stack off with an overpair on this board, I should be able to barrel him off his hand relatively often. The turn card is one of the better one's for me to continue repping a hand that beats one pair as it puts a 4 liner out there. So his range still mostly consists of one pair hands, while I have all sets and str8s in my range (and he really has close to none of those).

Anyway, that is/was my thought process but perhaps you think I range him way too narrow here which is cool.
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05-29-2018 , 01:42 PM
Once we are over the flop bet discussion, I like the action following but I'm more than a little worried we won't have enough ammo to jam on the river once he calls turn bet.
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05-29-2018 , 01:46 PM
Ok, but the range changes as the hand proceeds.

When he raises pre, he has 88-AA, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, JQs JTs, maybe a few other suited connectors, suited broadways, and some lower pockets.

When he calls the flop bet, he has 88-AA, suited clubs, small chance of a set, small chance 89s, small chance 87s.

Now when he donks the turn, the range must narrow some more. It makes no sense to play JJ-AA this way, donking big on a terrible turn for your hand. Why not continue bluff catching? I would think his range narrows to like 88-99, maybe some clubs, and I guess we can give him a few combos of spazzy overpairs, even though it makes no sense.
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05-29-2018 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishsoup
Once we are over the flop bet discussion, I like the action following but I'm more than a little worried we won't have enough ammo to jam on the river once he calls turn bet.
V will have ~$500 left and the pot will be $850. I sized down specifically to make it look more like value sizing while planning on shoving most, if not all, rivers.
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05-29-2018 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
So the point I am making is that this flop, in theory, should hit my pre calling range way harder than his pre raising raising range UTG. Meaning, that his most likely holding is still 1 pair on this board (most likely AA-TT). So assuming he is a good player who will realize that he can't just auto stack off with an overpair on this board, I should be able to barrel him off his hand relatively often. The turn card is one of the better one's for me to continue repping a hand that beats one pair as it puts a 4 liner out there. So his range still mostly consists of one pair hands, while I have all sets and str8s in my range (and he really has close to none of those).

Anyway, that is/was my thought process but perhaps you think I range him way too narrow here which is cool.
If your making a move with a zero equity hand BECAUSE OF YOUR READ ON V I like it as long as your read means he can lay down AA or KK here.
these spots need to be lightly used with super reads on the V you target.

but your card dead comment looks like boredom took over and you may just be trying to agro(spew) your way into a win.
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