But you are a nit (and I guess a bit of a calling station if you are calling down OP here?), so we play differently against you. Of course, once a nit calls the flop, they've got it. I'd never put another dime in against you unless I knew I had you beat.

It all depends on the action of course, but if it looks like the nit has an underpair (perhaps a big underpair) I'm pretty sure lots of people will be tempted to barrel them off it. It doesn't have to get checked down too often to a loss for players thinking they coulda won the pot with more aggression.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I suppose there's some irony in the fact that I was floated by a decent player to my immediate left later in the day at a different table when I opened MP with 99 to $15, I bet K86 flop $20, he calls, turn 5, I x/c $25, river 6, I check and snap-call $50 and MHIG. So I also prefer to be the person with the hand overall -- but sometimes you have whiffed big cards and have to decide whether to put them to a decision!

NH. So imagine that you’re the V in the HH you shared when you had AQo. What Kx are you folding? What’s your minimum defense hand facing the turn raise you put in ? Thanks!

I wouldn't lead the turn because I don't want to create a pot where V can play for stacks, which is why I check/called the turn. Once V underbets the turn in the 99 hand, he's going to have a tough time betting more than like 75 on the river, so I can check/evaluate and likely call.

I think that's the crux of the hand from the OP -- V's turn lead actually creates more leverage for our hand -- both because people view raises as stronger than bets, and because he's not just facing the 85 now, he knows that I can easily ship 190 into 230 or so on the river and my bet looks like that's exactly what I'm setting up for.

I'm glad I didn't have to decide, but I think I would have crammed if he checked rivers, v-bet about 100 on A rivers, and checked behind and crossed my fingers otherwise.

In response to your question -- I really don't know because I wouldn't lead the turn, it creates this scenario too much. I think on a board this wet, I might check/jam everything I want to continue with here, and if it checks through, v-bet blank rivers down to about 99/TT or so.

Thanks for your response and thanks for this thread. It's a common tricky situation and in "real time" it's very difficult to find the right tactics. You did a great job exploiting this guy.

I criticized your line originally because I believe the great majority of my sub-population of V's (at 1/2 or 1/3) wouldn't fold their Kx here to my raise. The danger here might be extrapolating your success against this specific V to the potential for success against the general LLSNL Villain population.

And if my V's are leading this turn, which I agree with you is a mistake with Kx, it's with a big K or a Kx FD - which they ain't folding unless I jam it in - or 4x which they're never folding even to a jam. So your analysis of your raising rationale might apply to this specific V, but perhaps not to the general population.

Oddly enough, I think your line would work better at higher stakes where thinking players can make Level 2+ laydowns. My Level 1 Villains in construction boots and T-shirts are going to put me on QQ or a big draw and call down my raise nearly every time here. So if the river bricks, I'm in a helluva tight spot.