Game has dwindled down to 6 players. Villain is a straightforward bad reg, but c/r overbets at a high frequency (Like 200 into pot of $45). He seems to showdown with non-robust hands alot like TPTK, 2Pair, Sets (i.e. he isn't big on chasing draws). He's around 30 years old, blue-collar worker, doesn't have a firm grasp on betsizing but still has done decent in the game. Views me as aggressive monkey, and I've been coolering people all night. Game is 1/2 with a mandatory straddle.


MP: Fold
CO: Call 4
BTN (Hero): Raise 17 w/ QJ
SB: Fold
BB: Call 13
UTG: Fold (he straddled)
CO: Fold

Effective Stack Size ~ 450 Hero covers

(Pot = 38)
Flop:AT5
SB: Donks $10
Hero: Raise to $35
SB: Call

(Pot =108)
Turn:Q
SB: Check
Hero:???

I suspect his donk lead is either a weak ace, or a ten w/ backdoor straight outs or immediate flush outs.

I didn't know what I wanted to do here. My initial reaction was to bet, but I'm not sure how many better hands I can make fold here. If I check behind, there is enough money in the pot to get paid off very well on a good river, but I also avoid get c/r all-in (I'd expect him to do this with any TPTK or 2pair hand). His check on the turn seems pretty weak, but he looks antsy and keeps looking at me out of the corner of his eye (strong hand indication???). Not too worried about him having any KsXs hands aside from AsKs, but I'd expect a 3bet on the flop at a high frequency.

I call the flop, board is super dry and static and you're pretty deep. Why not see a cheap turn card? Once the Q comes you can bet like 30 into 50ish. AP I'm not sure how there's 'enough money in the pot to get paid off on a good river'. There's like 100 out there with like 400 behind? I for sure bet turn for value and to get folds from Arag hands.

Pot size of $102 is enough to get paid strictly based on this villian who criminally overplays hands. If he rivers 2pair or a straight and I have a straight or flush, I almost guarantee I get the money in.

Betting the turn "for value and to get folds from Arag hands" suggests you do not really know if you're value betting or bluffing. When such is the case, the best play is to check and take the free card.

What would your plan be if V X/R this turn?

FWIW, there really aren't any value bets to make here. What worse hands can V have that take these lines through all streets, and would X/C the turn?

Well if he does X/R its likely going to be a X/R all-in (read-based). This would require me to bet pretty large OTT to get the proper odds to call. I'm not trying to GII here anyways, which is one of the reasons I think checking is superior.

On another note, I think a bet on the turn is clearly turning a med-strength hand into a bluff. What hands does he call preflop, then bet/call OTF that I can beat now - not many. So if I bet, I should make it large to represent a value range that beats his range that is top-pair/2pair heavy (correct?). The question becomes whether or not my hand has more equity with its SDV or as a bluff. When I play LLSNL, I don't think I have a lot of fold equity in this spot, which makes me favor checking.

Actually no, you can justify both simultaneously when you don't know how wide V folds/continues. Stations call w/ Tx or worse FDs while weak tights fold Arag. Hence my comment.

x/r is an easy fold.

Sent from my SGH-I747M using 2+2 Forums

Check. Villain already shows some strength with donk+call. V might overvalue top pair based on your reads. A bet won't get a fold from Ax. You have a ton of outs and SDV.

I don't love the raise on the flop. You get good enough odds to call and can use position. I'd rather save a semibluff for the turn.

I Raise/fold flop here at a high frequency, because
1. I have a ton of equity when called
2. Low reverse implied odds
3. Fold equity from his air/weak Tx hands/weakest Ax hands
4. Keep initiative in the pot and allow myself to build a pot with a hand drawing to the 2nd best full house, and a gutter to the nut straight

By raising OTF, I narrow my villains range considerably when he calls, but more importantly it makes most 1/2NL villains play even more face-up on turn/river than they normally do. This situation became interesting solely because of the turn card.

100% raise flop
Q on the turn actually isn't a great card for us, even though it technically improves our hand
turn is a check behind esp given reads that vill likes to c/r overbet
think even against other player types this should be a check on the turn most of the time. only group I'm trying to bet turn against is the nittiest/mubsiest players or when my table image is beyond pristine and dominant

maybe raise to just 30 on flop. we are trying to get middling hands to call us here. check back on turn as if he has a draw, we usually have the better of it so an option is to let him catch up on riv with his draws and if riv doesn't complete, you can call a little more that 50% of bets.

What!?!? On the flop all we actually have is Q-high and a bunch of draws. Raising is clearly a semi-bluff. Is it important to recognize that a semi-bluff is - first and foremost - a bluff. Therefore its intent is to induce a better hand to fold, not a call by a "middling hand" ( unless you have some unstated plan for taking down the pot without improving on the turn or river).

LOL. When you don't know how wide V folds/continues, and he calls... you STILL DON'T KNOW. We do know however that we are more likely to get calls from the Arags and folds from the Tx's. Assuming the opposite is just love gating money on fire.

Too much equity to risk having to make "easy fold" to V's X/RAI and not see the river card.

Still voting for check behind OTT.

I go more on the flop, probably $50. I expect a lot of folds after weak donk bets, and depending on the V i may bluff air. I check the turn here.

The main thing with the flop raise is your fold equity. Giving that he overplays hands and he sees you spewy, your fold equity goes down a ton. So I would just call.

You repped an ace you have to continue on the turn I think. Plus if you hit a flush or backdoor draw on the river he's not going to put you on it since you repped an ace. By checking your hand solely looks like
a draw and you probably don't have any fold equity on the river now as well.

You have about 40% equity on the flop, all of which comes from drawing. You have Q high and need some FE to make a raise semibluff profitable. I don't see this villain, who seems sticky, ever folding Ax, draws, or better.

Without FE, I slightly prefer calling to raising the flop because villain gives you almost 5:1 to hit your hand. You have a very tough decision if 3bet or called then bet into on the turn. I'm not eager to get my stack in drawing to the 3rd nut flush and nut straight 225BB deep.

As played, I agree you can eliminate Axss from V's range when he calls the flop and you bought a check on the turn. Again, I don't see much FE by semibluffing again. And why open the betting again if villain likes to c/r? Check please.

If you can't see this turn is a great b/f spot I feel sorry for your missed value. GL Ruffin.

Sent from my SGH-I747M using 2+2 Forums

I'm fine with the flop raise, definitely x'ing behind the turn.

We raise pre, raise flop, hit a pair, and we are going to shut down? Why? Aren't we trying to get him to fold that's why we are betting with nothing? Continue the story and get him to fold weak Ax and have him maybe continue with iinferior draws vs us.

Not that many weak Ax are in his range anymore. The frequency he c/r's this turn is super high. Those draws are going to pay us off OTR anyway. If we brick river, there is a good chance it goes c/c.

^That is my line of thinking currently. Perhaps because I witnessed the river I am being results oriented.

I hate doing this, but I think this thread has about run its course. So for continued discussion on whether the results are messing w/ my head

Did he at least have the A?

No, nor do I think this player understands why that card is so beneficial for c/r'ing the river.

What combos are in V's range and are weaker draws? I.e., combos that actually fit his betting lines and profile as per OP...