Underground 1-1 game...8 or 9 handed

Villain: Late 20s white male. Unknown to me. Although most players in this club see me as one of the more dangerous players here, I don't know if he knows me or even others' perception of me. However, I've only been at the table 30 minutes, and he has already seen my donk away $200 on a ridiculous turn c/r with MP to a gambooler when the low card on the flop paired on the turn. So for all I know, he could think I'm a fish.

Hero: 50 year old while male. Both Villain and I have approx. $200

Gambooler straddles $2 UTG...Villain in UTG+1 flats, MP flats, TAGfish in CO raises to $8, folds to me and I raise to $25 in the SB with T T...folds to Villain who backraises to $50...folds around to me and I begin to tank....although alarm bells are telling me it's AA/KK, I finally call getting more than 3:1, with the belief that if I do flop a set I'm likely taking his remaining $150.


Flop $110 (2 players)
K 7 8
Hero checks, Villain checks behind

Turn $110 (2 players)
9
Hero checks, Villain bets $25 (?), Hero calls with his OESD

River $160 (2 players)
K
Hero checks, Villain bets $50, Hero calls $50

Opinions?

This is pretty much always QQ+.I dont hate how you played postflop though

I don't know If I'm really calling preflop to be honest, 3-1 not good enough to set mine for me and IO aren't really there as he only has $150 behind and you ultimately are putting in $50 pre. But I'm nittier in these spots than most.

I'd likely make the call OTT as well, can't find to much fault.

As it plays I'm likely folding the river as I still stand to be behind the majority of his range. The K pairing makes it less likely for KK, and slightly less for AK, but AA,QQ,JJ are still in his range, and even if it is a light 4!, 99 is there also. Only hand you beat is AQ imo. But 4-1 on your money I may have said *** it and made the call for the info, but I also know I could just as likely and say *** it I don't see how i'm behind unless he 4! me super light.

I don't really like the call preflop at all. Your not getting the right price to set mine and the only hand I really think your beating in his range preflop is a-k and 99. He only min-raises you back pre so I'm guessing he is actually expecting a call. a-k, a-q, 1010-88 are all probably calls on your end for that small of a reraise so I'd proceed assuming he wants a call. Probably would have made it closer to 60-70 pre if he wanted a fold.

AP I think I give up on the turn. Why would he check that flop to you if he wiffed - it would be a pretty good spot to c-bet and take it down repping a-k. Wouldn't make any sense imo to not bluff the flop and then start bluffing the turn. With the turn 9, all the hands I would put in his range now crush you so easy fold imo.

River is a fold. What are you putting him on?

Probably folding to the limp raise. With stack sizes prob flatting the 8 vs tight fish

Huh???

In general, I put limp-reraisers on AA/KK/xx, where xx could be anything from a mid-PP to randomish hands like QJs/Ax. The fact that two kings were out seemed to narrow it down to either AA or xx (although some of the xx hands easily could be ahead of me).

Given how weakly and weirdly he played it, I found it difficult to fold the river for $50 more, although I think of all of the decisions I made the river call was probably the least debatable with respect to being bad.

You're right. The river is the least debatable. You should be folding like 99% or (on rare occasions where you soul read him and know he'll fold) shoving. This is never a call because you beat absolutely nothing except AQ. And if he plays AQ this way then you'll get your money back from him eventually anyway.

As far as his range OTR it's JJ or QQ like almost always.

FWIW, I almost never see people lrr with hands like JJ/QQ. When it's not KK/AA (which it is the vast majority of the time), it's more likely to be some goofy hand like A9s or 77.

I flat the pfr, fold to the limp reraise. As played I fold the river

If you're seeing people l/r with A9o, I need the address to your game because it's a gold mine. Either way, this hand is no less than JJ, but you're probably right about most people not l/r'ing with it. Therefore, it's pretty much AKs/o (with a case of FPS) or QQ+. If its anything other than that, make a mental note because you now know you're at a great table.

+1

I didn't comment on it earlier, but flatting the l/r was pretty bad. Nowhere near the IO needed.

After the hand, I ran some numbers on calling the lrr, and I think it's actually a clear call, if we assume that Villain is always calling off with his KK/AA when Hero flops a set, especially since Villain has barely more than a psb left on the flop...and we further assume that Hero does not foolishly put more money in the pot unimproved without a good reason (like on this river).

Of course, while there are times that Hero will lose to set over set, there are also times that Hero will win with TT unimproved when Villain is lrr with a hand like AK or some other hand behind TT preflop

If we assume the italicized is true, then the numbers are as follows:

Hero folds to the lrr = -$25

Hero calls the lrr:

(11.8% * $200) - (88.2% * $50) = -$20.50

Given the above, it would seem that calling the lrr is the better play than folding to the lrr, unless my assumptions or my math or wrong.

It's never a correct call when villain has just enough to where you're barely above breaking even IF he has AA/KK, which you said yourself above is not 100% of the time.

Edit: your math is in fact off. Your EV of folding is $0. And you only had to call $25, not $50. Therefore, it's more like this:

EV of folding = $0

EV of set mining = (.118 * ($89 in pot + $150 remaining in villains stack)) - (.882 * $25) = $6.15

The info I see here is he limped from early position over just one player...AA KK QQ type hand still totally in range.

Over a raise and a 3 bet...he min 4 bets (kind of cold) with a player who raised still to act behind...if he called here alarm bells would go off...his 4 bet is the fire, my guess is AA.

This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. If people are only limp raising with QQ+, then the game is a gold mine because these players only know how to play their cards, not their opponents and they don't know how to use image.

You have to be willing to make limp reraises with less than premiums. Your range isn't even polarized in this spot if you're only limp reraising QQ+. No balance, easy exploitable.

Just because you know this doesn't mean the villain does. Without evidence to the contrary, I assume a l/rr is AA. If the villain is l/rr A9, it will be apparent fairly quickly. OP, I'd fold the river but otherwise nh.

You get set over set about 1% of the time too, so you odds are reduced to just over 10% to get a "clean" set on the flop.

Also as another poster said, folding isn't -EV. Once your bet is in it's no longer yours.

Should be more on the lines of (10.6% * 239) - (89.4* 25) = 25.3 - 22.35 = +3

So it's a slight +EV play. I think your best bet is to fold, stop any tempting errors post-flop like in the original OP.

Villain is also might c/f with a hand like KK/AA on a QJT board.

In case you didn't notice, this is a 1-1 game, not the nosebleeds where range balancing is a must to be profitable. Villain is an unknown and there have been 2 limps, a raise, and a cold 3bet prior to his l/r..... Like I said, if he's doing this with A9o in this spot, this table is a gold mine.

I don't know if it's valid to subtract out a percentage for set-over-set without adding in the equity TT has against hands like AK and the other hands which are underdogs to TT but will show up occasionally.

Nonetheless, I think the numbers show that calling the lrr is better than folding, even if there may be significant variance associated with putting in that extra $25.

How about just calling with tens in the first place and not 3betting?

The LP raiser tends to raise his premium hands in the $12+ range, making his play in this hand look like either a position raise and/or a pot-sweetener. In addition, he tends to play fit-or-fold against me, leading me to feel pretty good about getting HU with him if he did call my 3-bet.

The problem is, you need him to have both have these hands and check them down the whole way postflop. If he bets and you fold you still lose the pot, and if you're calling his postflop bets then you no longer have the implied odds against big pairs because you're losing more money postflop.

Good point