1-2 at Parx. 8 handed

Stack sizes:
CO: 200ish
BB: 144
Hero: 300ish
UTG: 350

Villain in hand literally just sat down and posted his big blind so no reads. I'm pretty sure he was coming from another table. I've been playing for about an hour and I would say the table has been pretty passive, limpy preflop and there is a decent amount of c/folding to first bet on the flop type lines. Besides that, no other solid reads I can give about any of my opponents

UTG and UTG +1 limp, folds to CO who makes it 12.

BTN folds. Hero, in SB with TT calls 12. BB calls, both limpers call.

CO has been very limpy preflop, often limping with 46o and A5s a like from UTG. This is the first time I remember him raising preflop so I elect to just call

5 players (60 in pot)
237

Hero bets 40. BB calls, UTG calls, everyone else folds.

based on limited experience with players and table, I felt like check/raising here is a bit spewy as I usually only get called by QQ+/ sets/ two pair/combo draws and fold out 88/99/7x. I also felt like c/calling wasn't great as my hand is very vulnerable against so many opponents on such a wet board and pretty much have fold to any real bet on the turn. Hence, this left me with leading out. Of course, if you have good reason to take another line- I'm all ears.

T: K

Hero checks, BB shoves for 92. UTG folds pretty quickly. Hero ???

I'll post my decision and my reasoning for what I did on the turn after I run a few numbers and hear peoples responses.

TY TY TY

first thing that jumps out is you are getting 3:1 on a call. all you need is 30% equity to make this call profitable.

the lead out is fine, you look super strong leading out from the blind, so you will get lots of folds from from all the junk gutters and second pairs.

the only hands that have you crushed are 22, 33, Kx, JJ+. there are tons of combos that are 7x and AxHH.

I would call this and feel good enough to justify the pot odds you are getting

I would fold. I think BB is doing this mainly with hands that beat TT. He's betting all his money against two players, not just one. I'd fold, play a few more orbits, and come up with a plan to exploit V rather than playing the guessing game on if he's the type of guy to move all-in with flush draws. Shoving hearts when checked to here isn't something your average donk does. They're usually thrilled to draw at their flush for free. At a table this passive, I would expect that's what would happen. A lot of times pre-flop passivity translates into post flop passivity.

it's not looking good. He never has 7x here as you said he limps hands like A5 ext. This pretty much puts his range on JJ+ or AK.

I don't think you want to burn 75BB with TT. I don't really like the lead - it just bloats the pot and you are OOP.

CO was the one who limps A5 etc not BB. I have no reads on BB. If you don't like the flop lead, what is your plan for flop play and why?

Thanks

oh i see never mind. ya I guess you could call BB player - he could have a lot of weird hands.

I thought some guy who always limps is raising and than you led. I mean leading isn't as bad than. I would still check and see what people do before going wild. Probably check raising since stacks are shallow and flop is good. I'm assuming cut off is active - if not and he bombs it I could see a fold as a passive limping nit usually doesn't bomb the flop multi way with out a good hand

Without reads on villain and 3 to 1 in this spot...I'm calling off and feeling fine about it. I would be mostly worried about Kxhh....wouldn't worry much about sets or two pair (not too many combos of them out there) considering we probably would've been raised on the flop.

Donk lead on the flop is perfectly fine...now call.

Djevans, I also don't think I understand your reasoning on why villain can't be calling the flop with 7X here. maybe you can explain? You say his range is JJ+ and AK. Can't villain also have a ton of Flush draws, combo draws, and also pair + backdoor straight or Flush draws like (34 or 76) type hands?

I guess i would say its less likely that villain shoves the turn with just 7X, no redraw. But again, I won't rule that out entirely at 1-2. People show up with all sorts of spazzy hands, and there often isn't a clear logic to how they got there.

Edit: Djevans, I just saw your second post- you can kind of ignore this one now

Why is it a good thing that he is folding out a bunch of trash hands like gutshots and second pairs?


There isn't much reason to lead here. You said yourself the table is really passive, yet UTG raises for the first time... what worse hands is he going to call with? Agreed check raise would be infinitely worse. Your hand is vulnerable to a lot of turn cards because your hand isn't that good. You just have Tens... one pair... one middle pair that looks sexy for a street because it's an overpair. When tons of money goes in the pot, you probably don't have the best hand, but when medium pots are played, you will win often. So lets not try to build a pot like we can't wait for stacks to get in.

As played, you're in straight guess mode because of the way you bloated the pot OTF, and you give no reads on BB.

The price seems right .. but doesnt it always at 1-2? !!

When you check the Turn he can put you on a missed Ax flush draw that lead Flop. That might be enough 'extra' reasoning to make the call here IMO.

I think you will find K-rag flush draws here a lot.

I would actually bet more on this Flop with the stack sizes shown. I am assuming being OOP you want to limit your thinking going foward ... which is to call all shoves on this Flop!! The CO is the only player you are folding a shove to on this Flop ... maybe. Pot betting from the SB is going to be called regardless of the size ... go bigger and take the thinking out of the Turn IMO. GL

Again as far as leading ... I like it against multiple opponents since pretty much ANY card on the Turn could help someone. 30% of the deck is higher ... any heart can kill action ... any lower card could fill in a missing piece for someone and we are left OOP to deal with it and they might get to see it for free if CO passes on a c-bet. BET here ..

Bloated pot, yes, but if CO folds to Flop bet you're in to the end. Sure you might miss some value if the trash hands fold out, but it gives you less to consider going to the Turn OOP and perhaps still up against mulitple opponents. GL

I agree that this is a tough spot. I like your call preflop and your lead on the flop.

You're getting ~3:1 to call the shove, which is pretty enticing. I guess you have to consider whether you think this guy would get stubborn on the flop with AK; and whether you think he would just call the flop with Kx.

I'm right on the fence, with a slight lean toward folding. There's at least a slight chance that the king didn't help him but he was already ahead, such as JJ or QQ.

I think he could show up with something like KQ or KJ fairly often.

It's not an UTG raise. CO raised after two limpers.

I was thinking it was the preflop raiser that shoved on the turn. The fact that it was the BB may change things. I still think I'm folding.

UTG didn't raise. It was CO who raises. Also It's BB that' shoving now. And as I stated, BB literally just posted his first hand, so I have no reads on him.

I agree with you about why leading out isn't great. But I sort of think it might be the lesser of three evils. C/raising as we stated is probably spewy. Check/folding feels too weak, so what's your plan for Check/calling? Again, I'm all ears. But please tell me your plan for turn and river play here instead of just saying it's better than leading. are we c/calling the turn and c/calling the river? or folding the river?

Seeing as this is a wet board with multiple opponents, leading out here usually forces our opponents to expose the strength of their hands. If UTG (with a stack of around 300) raises or CO, the initial raiser, raises, I'm probably folding.

Until villain shows me he can do this with 4c5c/5c6c, I think this is a pretty standard fold, actually.

Let's review: So far the guy has flatted a LP PF raise OOP, called a 2/3 pot donk bet with the PF raiser still to act behind and then shoved his last chip in on an overcard to the board, which, if provided he thinks about such things (no guarantee at 1/2, I know) should hit your range squarely. The $92 push isn't so big that he can force a better to fold, and he did it with another player yet to act behind him. He knows you're interested in the pot and he doesn't seem to care too much. You've got two outs and need ~25% equity to continue. I really don't think you have it.

I agree with you that we can't assume that most villain's will be shoving 4c5c/5c6c here. That seems more aggro than most "regular" 1-2 players.
But what about A9 or QT or pretty much any Flush draw?

I do think a lot of 1-2 players will call flop bet with a flush draw with one or two over cards or a flush draw + straight draw, and shove the turn when SB checks to them.

This, combined with the fact that most people will be raising 2pair and sets on the flop, which makes it less likely they have them on the turn, might make this a call here.

If we don't think villain ever shows up with a flush draw/ combo draw than this call is really really terrible. But I guess I'm making the argument that he often does.

I'm on the fence. I agree with how you've played it so far. I lean towards a fold. But if my mood was a certain way, or if villain looked a certain way, I would def call sometimes. I feel like he's ahead at least 75 percent of the time. Rarely bluffing here or even semi bluffing here. He could have 2 pair, a set he didn't want to reraise before letting PFR act, any random King. You're basically praying for him to have a flush draw or pair plus straight draw. So the few times you are ahead, he's got plenty of equity. I think a fold is best, but I know I'd call at least sometimes.

Okay so I just ran some numbers: Against villain's range of: 22,33,77,K7, all AhXh down through JhXh, plus his combo draws like 4h5h and 5h6h and 6h7h, and QQ and JJ, we have 28.8% equity.

Now I know some people will (rightly argue) that villain won't always be shoving JhXh here. So I decided to run his range without any Ten high or lower FD draws to balance it out a little (which villain will occasionally show up with). I also didn't add weirdly played 88,99, or 7X hands to his range either (which sometimes villain will spazz out and shove the turn with)

This range is far from being perfect but 28.8% is better than the 25% equity needed.

Of course if we don't agree that villain is shoving his Flush draws our equity is more around 10% in which case the call is really bad