1-2 NL. 7 handed, $450 effective with villain.

Villian: white Male, late 30s. Played a few hours together, till this hand has played very ABC. Views villain as tight, possibly sticky.

Otth:

Villains straddles $5 on the btn.

SB calls 5
Hero raises to 25 in CO w/ A K
Btn (Villain) calls 25
SB calls 25

Flop (75): K 10 7
Sb checks.
Hero bets 45
Btn jams for 370 more.

Hero?

The board is fairly dry. Hard to find bluffs, maybe QJ.
I found this spot confusing, as the huge bet screams that he wants a fold, but why so much?

Yeah, I think this is a fold.

To answer the question of why so much? It's likely he has 2p, maybe a set, and he is trying to get value out of AK (pegging you on a hand). I think the only other hand that could play this way is another AK, but even that would be a little spazz to shove with here. With a straddle call OTB I think KTs and maybe even T7s can be in his range, and 77 or even TT could definitely be in his range (some ABC'ers don't like to 3! TT).

We'd have to have some evidence of outlier behavior to find a call here. V has put a rack on the table, he's planning to leave, or he over defends his BTN straddle, or you raised his BTN straddle the last 3 times and he's playing back, or 89 is literally his favorite hand and he goes nuts with it, or he plays ABC till the pot gets large and then he tries to steal it.

Barring an outlier like this, the best we are hoping for is a chop.

I would go $30 pre. I would go $25 otf.

As far as the actual question - this spot comes up very rarely, but I have folding these spots. I just don't see why villain would ever do this with TT/77/KT - I would expect a much smaller raise.

Albeit, I have a very small sample with these spots, but every time I've called, and I've been up against a draw.

I would call.

staddle and tight don't fit my player profiling
straddle =loose
I would have to have sat with during those hours to secure more accurate read.
did he take offense to you raising the straddle?
has he overbet like this before.
seems erratic

stacking off one pair hands is death but this smells like a draw
I muck and whisper WTF

Oops... my I meant to say that he views Hero as tight. As he made several comments about my not playing many hands. Hero plays TAG, but was card dead for a significant portion of the session.

He didn't seem to take offense to the raise on the straddle, and had not overbet previously. This was the first out of line action I have seen from villian in about 8 hrs play.

Normally I would consider overbets to polarize a players range significantly. However, there appears little incentive or likelihood that Villain decided to spazz out with a 200bb shove with air, and there are not many draw combos leaving villain fairly heavy on value here. I considered K10, and sets as comprising his value range. It just doesn't make sense to overbet in an obviously value situation if he has a made hand.

Years ago on line, I would be good calling this about 60% of the time based on my database. This is a draw a lot of the time. I'd call it. If my bankroll can't take a 60/40 shot with 2 BI, I should be getting up from the game and waiting to re-enter with 100 BB or less.

Button straddle is different, IMO. Tighter, position-aware players are definitely fine getting extra money in OTB. Easy to see who's in the hand pre and see if you can steal. Even easier to bet on a checked board with ATC and take down a larger-than-normal pot with a lot of information.

Venice: Does that mean that 60% of the time you were ahead when you called? But was your overall EV from such positions? Meaning when we call and are ahead (60% of time) we are often only a 70/30 favorite to a draw, and when we are behind (40% of time) we can be crushed.

Seems like some split consensus here in the thread. Granted these situations don't come up that often.

Math stab here:
I considered that there are three possible drawing hands (QJ, J9, 89) that have either open ended draws, or double gutter (48 combos). All could be in his pre-flop range. We are losing to K10, 1010, 77, K7's and 107's (21 combos). There are a lot of combos of the draws I agree, but I think we have to discount some of them. Villain would be getting a decent price and odds to call with his draw and I don't think he jams a draw anywhere near the majority of the time here. Given that our equity when ahead is significantly worse than our equity when behind we would need to be ahead at least around 50% or more of the time to come out ahead. Which raises the question: "Does Villain really overbet jam about 1/2 his draw combos in this spot?"

My in game read was this was possibly a weak two pair, that was afraid of being counterfeited, or possibly a strange AA as I have seem players overbet jam AA when they don't know what to do.

Anyway, I was unsure of the right play, and have been working on being more disciplined. So instead of making a uncertain call, I opted to fold. Thanks for the input guys.

that's a fair point especially in the new world order of 6 max

It was actual wins in situations where I faced an all in on the flop and called. Given the number of draws I faced, I'm confident I was ahead the vast majority of the time.

Fold, this is a classic fish line. They bink a set and just go crazy hoping you call because "wtf would you jam for??!"

This is a classic fish line, where they chase an opened ended straight and shove here to try and take down some money on a semi bluff.

My dudes, this line can mean all sorts of things. For some guys it means that they have TT/77 and don’t want action killers to make you fold a king. For others it means QJ. And we have no idea what this guy is.

Villain is risking 370 to win 120. You should probably call at least the top 25% of hands in your range, OP. Probably a little bit more since even QJ and 98 and J9 will have plenty of equity and we’d rather not hand a +EV strategy to an unknown


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Call. Looks like a draw

Some fish are taking this line with K7 or T7 cause so many turns make their hand less nutted

Would be curious for results, I still don’t have a great sample on what this means. Draw is what makes sense but I see this with value as well when I call and then feel dumb for paying off their stupid line.

I would expect two pair to take this line more often than sets but there are only two KTs combos and idk if he calls T7s pre or not. Based on the combos I gave him, I’m going to guess you have around 23-33% equity against his shove range. Depends on how much QJ we put in his range.

I’m just guessing though, I’m not great at these weird leveling type spots.

I folded. I've seen a lot of times that a weak player will just overbet jam with 2-pair hands to avoid making mistakes on later streets. I hadn't seen anything unusual and with stacks as deep as they were I was hesitant to commit with a 1-pair hand.

Since we would be calling 370 into a pot of roughly 530 we are getting 1.4 : 1 or so, and would need about 42% equity in order to call.

Online this is often a draw. However, in a live 1/2 game, I'd confidently fold here 99% of the time. Weak live players have wide ranges that give them random 2 pair hands quite often. (Q4o, K7o, J9o,) And they understand that most studied players will usually have at best 1 pair here or a draw.

Their biggest fear is getting outdrawn, so they shove.

I've seen it 100s of times.

Sometimes this could be a set. But usually it's not.

I think it's a trivial fold and you've made the right decision. You have repped a good Kx and the guy doesn't sound like an idiot, so his shove looks like a set or KT (even though you do block it). It's almost a 10x raise, which is insane as a bluff IMO.