Hero has AcTc in MP1 in a $1-2 game
Effective stacks $120 all players.
Hero and two villains all know each other's games pretty well.
Hero is known as solid/somewhat nitty.
H opens to $10, V1 (loose splashy) calls OTB, BB (nit) calls.

Flop ($31) is monotone T97sss.
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 20, BB calls.
Best action now for Hero?
And should Hero have c-bet and if so what sizing?

Thanks.

I just fold once the nit calls. Even if we happen to be ahead now, there are not a lot of cards we want to see on the turn and I doubt splashy is slowing down much even if nit does.

Edit: as to c-betting, I'm fine not doing it -- this board hits their range much more than yours, even if you did hit it a little. Splashy probably knows this and could make it very difficult for you unless you are just willing to gii vs. him.

I like the flop check here.

I'm ok to call once and evaluate on the turn. Bet from button is a wide range.
I think folding immediately is a little too tight.

Why is everyone only 60 BB effective?

I bet this flop $15, but monotone boards are something o could use a lot of work with. Idk why, but monotone boards are definitely a weakness of mine.

I totally see why we could fold, for the reasons Javanewt gave, but it also feels so weak to fold in a spot that I think we're ahead in a majority of the time. I don't think enough worse hands to call to make a shove profitable, even at these stack depths. I personally call and hope to gii on any non spade, 6, or J turn. I doubt there's much of a difference in folding v calling.

What do you guys think the nit in the BB is calling with? The naked As?

At the time I felt an initial instinct toward folding, but that felt a bit tight, and I called. In post-session analysis I felt a raise (a shove... which is a pot sized raise of $90) could well have been correct, for the following reasons...

I think the nit can be calling with quite a wide range here: naked As, some kind of weak made hand like KhTh or weak hand plus weak draw like say JhTh or 7h8h.

Just because someone is a nit doesn't mean they are slowplaying a monster here. Plenty of nits will correctly raise a big hand here to charge a price for opponents trying to outdraw them.

I think Hero's best play will depend mainly on assumptions about the splashy player's range. There is a chance he could just be stabbing with overcards with a high spade, or a weak made hand like Ah9h, or weak made hand plus weak draw like 7h8h.

If Hero now shoves flop (after V1 bet and V2 call) then the villains will probably (correctly) fold a lot of the above hands that have decent equity against our actual holding, as they'll fear we have them crushed and their draws might be no good.

Actual results: After I called the flop, the turn and river were bricks, a red 2 and a red 3. I showed my hand, the splashy guy showed AhQs and the nit mucked without showing.

I feel that I have a weakness in my game when playing these medium-strength hands – my instinct is to be overly cautious and fearful about the villains' holdings. Of course, I might be results-oriented here given what they showed down.

PS. the turn and river were checked through.

What do we think Nit's calling range pre is?

If he is a nit it might be something like 77-QQ, AKo+, AJs+, perhaps KQs.

So what's he calling with. He has no 2p, no worse pair other than 88. He might raise his sets if you're lucky, but he may well be too nitty fearing the flush.

When he calls flop, you're ahead of AsKx, and 8x, and behind everything else he calls with. I still call flop for the price, but warning bells are going off.

This is not the description of a nit. A nit is not even calling many of these hands pre-flop from BB.

Some nits are nittier than others I guess.
Agree that KhTh/7h8h etc are somewhat unlikely.
But surely most nits will always call pre and call the BTN's flop bet with AsKx/AsQx, probably also AxKs, quite possibly AxQs, and occasionally a hand like JTs.

Yeah, I guess since you're shallow you could x/jam to deny equity, but I think that's only reasonable on two conditions.

1. V1 has to be really, really splashy and overbluffing here. They're awash in nutty combos of straights, two pairs and sets. When they have a combo draw they shouldn't fold to a jam, so you're not denying that equity. You need them to have a fair amount of airballs here, otherwise I think you get snapped off by a really nutted range. Not a tragedy since we're shallow, but not great either. Turns out they did have an airball, so it's possible this assumption is true, but I think most folks especially at 1/2 are not bluffing with air enough here to make a x/jam profitable.

2. A general population read on monotone boards at lsnl is they x/r all their combos of 2p+, afraid of another spade or the board pairing etc. If you agree with that read and think v2 likely falls into this camp, and you think v1 has a reasonable amount of airballs here I like a jam for equity denial.

Most of the time, I think you just lay it down. It's a little nitty, but a call isn't great here either. Now you look really capped, since any of your nutted combos likely gii. So you basically have to check it down and hope they don't stab at it, but there are tons of dirty cards and outs for the other villains. I think in general, fold>raise>call, given the above circumstances raise is best.

Also got lucky that loose splashy isn't too loose splashy I'll be the BB's call slowed him down.

Thanks for your replies. My thinking was a bit distorted by seeing the splashy guy showing the AhQs. On reflection, I think most of population, even the splashier ones, will likely not stab this light on this flop. Given this, I think a fold is pretty ok, a check-shove at this short stack depth is probably pretty marginal/similar EV to the fold actually. A call might actually be very small negative EV but prob not bad. With normal stacks of 100 BB, I think a check-raise is pretty terrible, and a fold might be slightly better than a call, but that's probably quite close.

If you have read this thread this far down, then I'm also interested in your thoughts on another similar case of TPTK on a somewhat dangerous flop. I thought I'd post this example in the same thread, as the two situations have that similarity. If the convention on this forum is to post a separate hand in a new thread, let me know, and I'll do that...

This time, 8 players saw the flop, so I proceeded very cautiously on the flop.

I've become a bit fascinated by these strong-but-not-super-great hands. It seems pretty easy playing nutted hands and easy folding “nothing” hands, but medium-strength hands require careful judgement!

OTTH
1-1 game
Hero starts hand with $110. Everyone else covers, except for MP2 who has only $60.
Hero AdJd
UTG limps, Hero makes it 6 in MP1, seven players call! (4 behind and 3 in front).
Everyone is laughing at me for the lack of respect shown by 7 players calling me.

Flop ($48) Jh8s7d
Three players check, Hero checks, MP2 makes a silly small bet of $10 from his $60 short stack. HJ, BTN, SB and UTG call. Hero calls.
Question 1: should I have raised here? After I put my $10 in the pot, the pot is $108. I could shove – which would be a raise of $94. MP2 only has $44 more. A raise might be great as the four callers can have a lot of weak draws/weak 1p type hands as well as possibly slow playing a monster.

Turn($108) 3c is total brick, still rainbow board.
SB and UTG check, Hero checks, MP2 again makes a crazy silly small bet, this time $15! Three players now call, HJ, BTN and UTG. At this point I'm convinced the callers have the weak 1p/weak draw type hands, so I shove, which is a raise of $79. Is that the best play now?

Results later.