5/5, effective stacks 1.1k. Hero has a TAG image at the table and no history with villain, though I have seen him at the poker room a few times and it's possible he's a reg here. Today we have been at same table for about an hour, villain to my immediate left. Villain has been quiet and not really involved in any pots except for 4-betting pre from MP when 3-bet my LAG from the bb. LAG folded. Villain has not seen me do anything particularly memorable throughout session so far.

Hand:

After an early position limp, hero raises to 30 in MP with AK hero calls, button calls, bb calls, limper calls.

Flop (150) 1066

Checked to hero who bets 90, villain calls, rest fold.

Turn (330) K

Hero bets 175, villain raises to 415.

Is this a fold?

Yes. It's a fold.

Think about what he could call your flop bet with. And what of those could he be raising. Answer is nothing that you can beat.

yeah it's a fold. He's pretty much got TT every time unless he's gone crazy.

I would bet flop and turn a tad smaller too.

I check turn despite the fact we hit. There just aren't allot of hands we beat that'll call here.

sizing is fine, smaller sizing is more likely to induce a spazz here. w/out reads pretty simple fold. if villain is capable though and views you as a classic b/folder, it gets tricky since if you fold here you basically fold everything but KK/TT in this spot which is probably a super tiny part of your turn betting range. but again, w/out reads, snappitdy snap fold.

Unless the villain is Ed Miller trying to em[ploy his strategy to take away someone's bet/fold strategy I would most likely fold here unless I had some kind of read. His call on the flop is plausible for a big hand. KK not likely with your blocker but still a possibility. TT most likely in this case unless he is making a play. He could still have 66 in his hand but the likelihood of quads, well we know that already. If it is against a buddy of mine it could likely be air.

I'd rather check the turn than bet unless villain is super straightforward, we're extracting so little value by betting when we hit the obvious TPTK

Villain is repping such a narrow range of hands it's hard to fold, but I think your behind most of the time. So a fold is correct. You'll be folding the best hand here sometimes, but without a good read to go off of, you'll be saving yourself a lot of money by folding here.

Given OP's description of Villain, I am having a hard time putting him on something we beat. This isn't a very good card for Villain to be bluffing with as it pretty much hits all of Hero's range.

I'd have to have a pretty good reason to bet the turn here, usually. I think I x/c turn and lead river for 1/2 pot. Stop-n-go, FTW.

BTW... If Villain can beat TPTK here, his raise sizing is pretty damn good. He's just given you about 4:1 immediate odds to call. This looks good, but you probably need like 6:1 if you're currently behind.

Forgot about this post. I was actually villain in this hand and had A2ss. Wanted to see if my bluff made sense and if most decent players would fold in this spot when I take this line.

Nh doyle. Woulda owned me for sure if I was hero.

sure most would fold but a lot wont. and much of the time they will have a calling or better hand. your bluff works against the right player having the right hand. as all bluffs do.

thanks for input guys

Of course you got to fold.

Why?

Well for at least two reasons:
1.) You got a small hand for a big pot. What you got? ONE Pair. That's not good enough.
2.) The other dude, the opponent, trying to take the lead away from you. You showed aggression all three times( pf, otf and ott), so now he's waked up and trying to play for stacks and taking the lead away from you. So, you got to disappoint him.

In this situation you got to play the "Balugawhale Theorem" and obviously fold.

the key to your bluff is knowing if your opponent is capable of folding TPTK. I would never try this on an unknown - more likely the type of player who is going to hand over his stack when I have TT/6x here.