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07-15-2019 , 04:25 PM

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,054

Hero $1000 - Been at table for 30 minutes

Villain $1000 - Got stacked vs flush and mucked. Didn't get to see what he had but most likely an over pair. He's in for $2k. Younger asian kid but no real reads.

Hero Picks up KK on CO and goes $25 over Villain limp

Villain calls

$57
T

Check
Hero $15
Villain $75
Hero calls

$207
8

Villain bets $55
Hero calls

$317
6

Villain $375
Hero???

maybe hes trying to get me off A high??? He could have a T or 8 or some whacky 79 hand.

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07-15-2019 , 04:40 PM

Nippleman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 660

Ill ask the question that keeps coming up:

When you call the turn, what is your plan when he fires on any blank river (yes, I guess 97 gets there, but it's a blank. That hand is *barely* bluff catching.

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07-15-2019 , 04:55 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,786

I am not calling the turn to fold a blank river.

What's with the $15 flop bet? I'd rather check than bet that small.

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07-15-2019 , 06:42 PM

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,054

The turn is really cheap and we still have about $800 behind. If He has a T I have 5% and if he has an 8 I have 7% so i'm getting almost the right price to call if he has only those hands. But i'm sure he has some bluffs like random spazzy pocket pairs. I would say his most likely limp call hand is like 55-88 or some 87 hand or 9T hand.

Just saying in 4 years of playing live poker I have yet to see an over bet as a bluff in live poker and i'm not even sure this is even a great spot for an overbet bluff. It's not like i'm capped at high cards and over pairs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nippleman

It depends on sizing but i'm not calling $375 with KK on this run out when I am uncapped

Last edited by djevans; 07-15-2019 at 06:49 PM.

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07-15-2019 , 06:47 PM

Ranma4703

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,099

The suits of your KK matter for flop/turn play, the river is a trivial fold. If this is a reverse hand history where he called your bluff with KK, well this is why we don't bluff obvious overpairs and go huge value vs them cause people can't fold.

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07-15-2019 , 06:49 PM

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ranma4703

No they don't mater as I don't block A high flush draws but I had KsKh

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07-15-2019 , 06:51 PM

HomelessPizza

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 599

Don't like the tiny flop bet on this flop. I agree a 1/2p bet or checking is better, but now you have induced a spazz bluffing range from V with your small bet OTF.

AP, I fold a lot here, but I probably call it off since your flop bet may have caused him to spazz out.

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07-15-2019 , 06:54 PM

HomelessPizza

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 599

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

No they don't mater as I don't block A high flush draws but I had KsKh

Still relevant. You have to fold some overpairs here and I would probably let this one go since you block some bluffs

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07-15-2019 , 07:01 PM

bruce@lfb

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 283

tagged

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07-15-2019 , 07:15 PM

#10

Nippleman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 660

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

Check
Hero $15
Villain $75
Hero calls

$207
8

Villain bets $55
Hero calls

$317
6

Villain $375
Hero???

maybe hes trying to get me off A high??? He could have a T or 8 or some whacky 79 hand.

I mean, it's a polarizing bet. I don't think he is ever doing this with an 8 because he doesn't get called by worse too often and hates ****ing life if he gets shoved. His range is pretty much 10 or bluff (and maybe he has an A and is trying to push off splits, but still feels awkward.

I think I can find a call here, although I respect that the 375 makes it a fold for you, but what if he goes for value here? What if he bets half pot here, are you still folding?

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07-15-2019 , 08:49 PM

#11

Phil Me Up

adept

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 808

Your flop sizing is weird & makes this hand more confusing than is necessary. AP calling turn is standard given the tiny bet sizing. When villain sizes WAY up on river, time to fold. We're basically readless, so despite a brick runout, we have no reason to think this guy bluffs like this.

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07-15-2019 , 10:11 PM

#12

Nippleman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 660

I don't get the concept of calling this turn if you aren't showing down. I guess it's one thing if you are getting the right odds to chase a two outer, but otherwise give it up... I guess I can find the fold here, but if I have a strong bankroll, I am hero calling a decent amount of the time on this river (when I think I call the turn). A lot of people in this spot at 1-2 will think an Ace here can be good here, if its not a chop, and his sizing feels like he is trying to get an 8 to fold here.

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07-15-2019 , 11:13 PM

#13

Phil Me Up

adept

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 808

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nippleman

Because there is some chance we're ahead on turn vs a 25% psb. There is very little chance we're ahead vs an overbet on the river. We have no reads and facing heavy aggression. What's confusing?

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07-15-2019 , 11:28 PM

#14

Minatorr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,235

flop sizing is questionable, but since everyone think's 1/4'ing and 1/3'ing on flops is the new cool thing nothing really to discuss.

call flop obv std, turn not folding for that price.

river is close, probably just stationing off tbh. repping real narrow and flop couldve induced spaz.

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07-16-2019 , 12:01 AM

#15

FreeportMainePoker

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 155

I dont think he has an 8 or a straight here much if ever.
So he has a T or busted spades/ counterfeit Low pair.
When its polarized like this, i would use population tendency reads if i have no info on specific villain.
Does the average low stakes player bluff pot size on the river? Not much.

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07-16-2019 , 12:08 AM

#16

DillardPoker

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 11

As played. Fold river.

Results?

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07-16-2019 , 12:49 PM

#17

Nippleman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 660

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil Me Up

Because there is some chance we're ahead on turn vs a 25% psb. There is very little chance we're ahead vs an overbet on the river. We have no reads and facing heavy aggression. What's confusing?

On a two pair board, are you nuts? 25% is BEGGING for a call, his river bet is targeting people holding an 8. He is either completely on air or an ace. His river bet puts on farther ahead because he is NEVER taking that line with an 8. He folds everything that isn't a 10 out.

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07-16-2019 , 01:00 PM

#18

Spanishmoon

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nippleman

Amazingly I had a Spewy V yesterday take nearly this exact line with 88 on a T7 double-paired board. I wasn’t in the hand but my jaw nearly dropped. Was shown Tx by the whale and lost. I’m convinced you will see nearly everything at LLSNL.

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07-16-2019 , 01:25 PM

#19

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

I don't have a problem only calling boats+ of which I have many and arrive at the river the same way. Also, you must bet more on this texture IP.

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07-16-2019 , 01:26 PM

#20

Nippleman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 660

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanishmoon

I mean, without knowing how the pre played out, most people won't have a 7 unless its quads. High card can take this one down a nonzero percent of the time. That is strange.

I think we can at least agree that the river is a polarizing bet. I would fold turn personally in pure disgust because I believe when he is digging for value, I am chasing a two outer. The few times I am getting dug at, Ill get over it. Better places to make money. If I am convinced I am good here and call turn, I am calling river down on blanks.

Last edited by Nippleman; 07-16-2019 at 01:33 PM.

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07-16-2019 , 01:47 PM

#21

Jasaka

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 113

At LLSNL, this V's line looks a lot like 1) raise flop with T because scared of flush possibility and target overcards 2) downbet turn because made boat and don't want to scare away overcards 3) overbet river because it's time to get value against an OP that hopefully can't fold.

The hand could be a busted flush draw or a spazz raise because of the weird small bet by Hero, but it seems unlikely that he would bet so small with those hands on the turn.

Last edited by Jasaka; 07-16-2019 at 02:04 PM.

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07-16-2019 , 02:00 PM

#22

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasaka

At LLSNL, this V's line looks a lot like 1) raise flop because scared of flush possibility and target overcards 2) downbet turn because made boat and don't want to scare away overcards 3) overbet river because it's time to get value against an OP that hopefully can't fold.

The hand could be a busted flush draw or a spazz raise because of the weird small bet by Hero, but it seems unlikely that he would bet so small with those hands on the turn.

V likely is aware of all this and it's really a very close river decision given descriptions. Still, it's a 375 dollar bet and little info that can help us identify what this V is trying to accomplish/what he's capable of accomplishing this hand/this session. I also know I have a lot Tx/8x and quads here to select as calls to where I can fold bluffcatchers like KK IP facing his line.

The flip side of course is: I'm at a 2/5 game at MGMNH with KK and a young Asian V just bet 375 on the river and most draws missed. SNAP.

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07-16-2019 , 02:21 PM

#23

Jasaka

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 113

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amanaplan

Haha - so clearly the easiest decision we will have all day

I think we get shown a T or 8 here a lot but the big question is whether it's more than about 65% of the time. Is V bluffing here more than 35% of the time??

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07-16-2019 , 02:28 PM

#24

Minatorr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nippleman

On a two pair board, are you nuts? 25% is BEGGING for a call, his river bet is targeting people holding an 8. He is either completely on air or an ace. His river bet puts on farther ahead because he is NEVER taking that line with an 8. He folds everything that isn't a 10 out.

This is the wrong way to think about bet sizing.

Also, many people will bet this small intentionally because people think it's looks "valuey". And when people bet this small, we call more often simply because we're getting a better price and don't have to be right anywhere near as often.

Many people also just click buttons when they bet. You can't just assume a bet is almost exclusively value or bluff based on some arbitrary bet sizing.

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07-16-2019 , 02:45 PM

#25

QuantumSurfer

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,987

Flop sizing is fine. I'd make a fold OTR, especially with the Ks. We have lots of JT+ here and a few 8x hands A8s, 98s, 87s that we can make the calldown with. Pull out an equitycalc or flopzilla or something and narrow your range from flop to river to see how many. Those Tx hands make a decent portion of our range here. Sure, we're raising some of those OTT, maybe even 3b flop with them sometimes, but we've got enough OTR imo that we aren't forced to defend here with overpairs, especially since the odds of V being either perfectly balanced, or over bluffy aren't that high based on the average 2/5 pool.

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