I get what you are saying to an extent, but I think you can figure out what the V is looking for, and if you can't, aren't you just clicking buttons? When he bets that much on the river, he is folding everything that's not a 10 out. So either he is putting you on 1 of 3 potential hands (AA/KK probably muck, leaving 8x hands) or he is has an Ace, thinks he can beat everything else, or get another Ace to fold instead of chop. It's an icky spot for sure, and even when I saw as played call, I know V is going to have a 10 a decent chunk of the time.

50$ on the turn is not looking for a fold. It's why I fold the turn more often than not in this space. But if I have a read that I am good, I plan on calling down on all river blanks, especially when he polarizes like he does.

Unless you can see your opponent's cards or V overbet shoves 5x pot, it's really not a great strategy to ever be folding 90-95% of your range in any given spot, especially when your range appears to be capped. Especially not vs a 1/5 psb like c'mon.

How does $50 on the turn not looking for a fold -> we are beat? He could be block betting some nonsense like 99, spazzing out with a draw, turning counterfeited PP into a bluff, or who knows what. He could be doing reverse psychology where "oh, it's a small bet therefore he'll think i'm not bluffing and am trying to milk him. so he'll fold. plus it'll be a cheap bluff for me". Don't tell me you've never thought of that or never heard of that at the table/forums/etc. We only need around 17% equity (didnt calculate but estimating) to continue and if he has a house, we stack him if we river a K. It may seem insignificant but we river a K 5% of the time and can win up to almost $1k.

"We stack him if we river a king." That doesn't feel horribly relevant to our current situation. There are probably 4 cards that come up that aren't complete blanks. If we are making this fold on the pure base of it's too much money on the river, why are we calling the turn? This isn't me challenging you, just trying to understand. Unless our entire understanding of the game is spewy hands like 99 are going to try to bluff us on the turn, and give up on the river, how are we not just bleeding money by calling turn and folding to all river blanks? While I admit that H probably didn't expect an overshove on this river, and V has a 10 a lot of the time, it just feels like bleeding money.

For sure, a polarized bet on river. But I agree with Minatorr that turn could easily be a Ax blocker thrown up for misdirection or even 99, as in the hand I witnessed live yesterday in nearly identical circumstances, trying to fold out overcards. This is Villain-dependent unfortunately and our butt hasn't even warmed our seat 30 minutes into the session so we're mostly read-less.

I cannot believe a solver would fold here at this price but I could be wrong. Plenty of the LLSNL Villains I encounter are fully capable of blasting off here on the river on a scary board against the PFR, putting them on AQ/AK or even AJ from the CO.

This is 48 combos V can target for a fold (54 counting H's 99) versus 24 overpairs (V may also figure some of the 6 JJ might level themselves into a fold). So I guess the V can blast off knowing the combinatorics work decently for him since he's read-less too! In a weird way, this play only has to work for the Villain 1/3 of the time and he has more 8x than H does and probably as many Tx too.

If I can find a fold here, it's because we have the Ks that I want the V to have in his suited bluffing range. WADR, I think the OP djevans underestimates this fact, as HomelessPizza observed. But I'm likely calling as young V is stuck 1000 and may be tilting a little having been flushed before. It's very close.

Folding for a 1/4 psb seems like bleeding money. People bet with more than just nutted hands. One reason to call the turn wide is that folding more than 20.7% of our range [55/(55+207)], gives V a profitable bluff with any holding.

If the situation is the V just threw enough money out on the river to make us run away, that's fine. Is our hope that we either hit a two outer, or V gives up after two streets?

Results?