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Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Tough Spot. Could I Have folded?

07-31-2011 , 02:59 PM
I'm playing 2/5 NL at my local casino. The villian in this situation is a nit, in about his mid 50's. It is a new table that just opened an hour ago. He quickly doubled up and had over $1,000 in front of him, and got felted an hour later. He went to go get some more money and quickly doubled up again.

He is very nitty and i have only seen his raise preflop with 3 times, he opened to only $15 each time with either AA or KK.

Villian's stack = $900
My stack = $450

Preflop: Villian opens UTG to $15. I am UTG +1 and I re-raise to $50 with KK. I am just not buying the fact that he has AA again(this would be the 3-4 time in 1 hour) and is raising only $15 utg. I am putting him on JJ, TT, 99, AK. He just calls my re-raise and we see a flop.

Flop: 9,4,2, with two clubs. He checks to me and I bet $65. He instantly re-raises to $165. At this point I am a little worried because he is such a nit, I have noticed the past two times he had AA he made this exact same play, he raised $100 on top of whatever his opponent bet.

The only 2 hands that are beating me are 99 and AA. I just can't buy the fact that he has AA again. He can easily have QQ, JJ, TT and think he is good. Or he can have a hand like AcKc and have two overs and a flush draw.

Based on the short time I have played with him, I think he in not capable of making a check raise semibluff with a hand like AcKc. He is way too nitty and old to have that play in his arsenal. I have also noticed that he definantely thinks he is ahead, based on the speed he raised, raise size, and body language. If he had QQ, JJ, TT wouldn't he be afraid that I have AA or KK and just call my flop bet since i re-raised his utg raise preflop?

Anyway, after some thought I decided my KK are going to be good here like 90% of the time so i decided to shove all-in for ~$300 and he calls me with AA and wins.

Could I have gotten away from this strong a hand given the flop texture. I honestly felt in my gut that I was beat, but I just can't ever fold here can I???

Last edited by mp2012; 07-31-2011 at 03:13 PM.
Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Quote
07-31-2011 , 03:11 PM
KK vs AA 100bb deep.

Neeeeeeeeeext.
Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Quote
07-31-2011 , 03:22 PM
don't put results in when you post hands
Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Quote
07-31-2011 , 03:25 PM
[x] could have folded
Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Quote
07-31-2011 , 05:45 PM
If he is truly as nitty as you say I put him on QQ+ or AKs. This means that only 16 combos of QQ and 16 combos of AA, one combo KK and one combo AKs is in his range OTF. With QQ I don't see why he would be looking too confident with a medium overpair if your 3-betting range is quite narrow (say 99+, AQ+, KQs), where you are not betting flop with many hands that QQ beats. You can find a fold here if your reads on his nittyness are correct, but it's not a mistake to get it in with KK on a dry flop 100BB deep.
Tough Spot. Could I Have folded? Quote

      
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