If V does have a T then I actually like his lead to take away pot control or free card to hit a draw from H.

OP,

If you’re the kind of opponent who talks to me about stuff like this and are often 3-betting my obviously light opens:

I’m going to think you’re a more solid and observant player than the average 2/5 player, but still unlikely to have tens in your 3-bet range and aware I’m more likely to have one, so most likely on the turn you’re thinking something like this:

And while this is true and the river bet is for value against most 2/5 players who call on the turn:


I feel good about my chances of getting a good player off a likely overpair here.

Plus I’ll often bet smaller on the river with a 9 or ten to force you into a call.

Also, the stronger a player I peg you as, the more I’m going to check the turn with a ten, since you’re not the average 2/5 idiot who just auto checks behind on top pair pairing.

That’s why you should call.

El D,
What percent value bets does villain have vs bluffs?

Russian,

With a flush draw and straight draw out there, along with the dynamics I mentioned, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has more bluffs than value here. But certainly way more bluffs than the price we’re getting.

El D,
Any chance you ship the turn?

QQ would be the top of my folding range. His value to bluff ratio can easily be out of whack here.

Huh? Why wouldn't he have a 9/T in his range? 20 is a standard open in all the 2/5 games I've played in and I'd expect he has all T9s-ATs. I doubt he'd turn a 9 into a bluff as he has plenty of draws to bluff with and 9x has showdown value against our bluffs that may give up on this turn.

And why wouldn't he lead turn? This turn is great for his range so I would actually expect him to rarely have Tx when he checks. I would almost always lead Tx here and jam the river.

Tx is completely credible, but it's also easy to overbluff in this spot as villain.

Russian,


No.

ya i disagree, he could easily have a variety of Tx and 9x here, which is what makes this a difficult spot.

it's a standard polarized, high-variance spot against a competent player. we need to be right about one in three times. it's close. close enough that i would have called it off to see what he's up to. presumably you'll be playing against him again.

i wouldn't attribute much importance to the conversation you had before the hand. it's too hard to know what villain is doing in response to that (i.e. what level he's on). i would ignore that, factor in the 3betting history as you did, and weight the action as by far most indicative.

also raising turn would be very poor, it's exactly the kind of spot to not raise.

Agree from a pre-flop perspective, but would elim T9s b/c of his turn lead. Much more likely checking his boat than betting.

Not a lot of history from a range perspective, nonetheless I think these 9X combos (J9dd/98dd/97dd) would lead turn for just over 1/2 pot. Sets price with some FE, besides backdoor eqy if behind.

I'd lean call OTR once the turn is called. Fold if u think it might tilt.

It's probably a trivial call. Sure, villain does this with way more bluff combos than value combos, but if he's so good that he balances his frequencies it's probably closer to a wash.

But in the end I'm inclined to think, even if he's a really solid reg, he still probably overbluffs. The turn is the perfect card for his range, and I feel he'll over-use it against us. We're getting approx 2:1 so I call.

But he's a good player so if we lose, we lose... we shouldn't be after his money.

Virtually every live low stakes player pays this river bet off which is why this is a super trivial fold.

LOL can't we as a 2+2 community just admit that it is a tough decision, but then explain the way we lean. Looking through this thread at all the "trivial fold", "trivial call", etc. makes me laugh. If good solid winning players are on both sides of the fence on a particular decision, the odds are it is not a "trivial" decision.

Let's save a bit of the bravado.

Yes, you must call a balanced player here.

Yes he can have more T in his range than you, and yes he can lead turn with trips also.

This is what balance is like, no easy decisions. The price is right to call, that’s the point of it all.

Given your recent history of 3-betting this guy a lot it seems like he may try to bluff you a lot. He can have QJ, 87s, 76s, JJ or QQ turned into a bluff, various diamond draws. Having the K sucks as it reduces diamond combos for villain but he still has all the NFD in his HJ bet/call range I would think. He can also have random overcards like AQ and he's decided to blow you off an overpair on a scary board.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of the turn except I don't think villain has a bare 9 like A9. He might be setting up a bluff or he might in fact have a T, but there are so many draw combos and he knows *you* don't have many Ts that it feels more bluffy to me.

I'm calling the river. I just think this guy is going to bet almost all of his missed draws on a double paired river where you pretty clearly have an overpair and x the river. A smart, tight player will fold here plenty often for a bluff to be profitable, and he should know this.

As an aside, why are you 3-betting this guy so much? Just getting lots of good hands? I try to make it a point not to mess around too much with players better than I am precisely because I don't want them playing back at me and putting me in tricky spots.

DC,


That’s simply not true. Many overpairs will call once when the high card pairs and fold to a big follow-through bet.

It's under a pot sized bet. All the draws bricked out and most live low stakes players call way too much. This is such a terrible bluff spot and leading turn is generally what someone would do with a made hand to ensure flush draws don't get a free river card.

You're misinterpreting but my mistake if I wasn't clear. By "trivial" I mean that it's a close decision and therefore I don't think you can really go wrong either way. If villain is as "pro" as OP says he is and we give him full credit for having a balanced polarized range here, then the decision is more of a wash.

I do ultimately make this call though and am firmly in "call" camp, my hunch is that villain probably overbluffs this turn + river run-out against hero's description and we are getting more than 2:1

Hero never checked the river. He never checked at any point in this hand.

Damn. I need to read these HH more carefully. I mess up stuff like that too often...thanks for the correction. I think the fact we flat the turn makes us look pretty capped though, even if we never checked anywhere.

And I still call...hero is capped at OP (or quads) which villain surely realizes. Villain has many more TX 9x in his range and can get a smart player to lay down an overpair often enough for a bluff to be profitable here. He just needs us to fold 43%. And all his draws bricked so he has plenty of hands to bluff with.

If this were a random 2/5 villain I'm snap folding the river but against a crusher described as capable of anything who we've been 3-betting repeatedly over past 30 minutes? I'm calling. If I get shown a T, whatever. It happens. We need to be ahead only 30%. And this is not why I'm calling, but there's some added value in knowing how a crusher plays certain hands against me. But I think it's a +EV call vs. this guy.

I don't understand why a crusher would decide to lead turn after his equity decreases. Tourney donk? Sure. Live cash crusher? Doubt it.

His lead is very standard in online cash. It is a standard "GTO" Doug Polk style play. When the turn improves a lot of his perceived range, but hardly any of the 3bettor's, it is standard for the flop caller to take the initiative.

(Another example: UTG raises. Polk style reg calls in BB. Flop comes 763. BB c/c. Turn 4. Now BB will lead very frequently).

If we think villain is leading his draws on the turn shouldn't we be raising turn for value?

No. He will usually bet those draws hit or miss on the river, so we make more from them by calling than raising, provided we call the river. Also, we are probably not ahead of his range overall, and of course he is never folding better, so if we raise, it would not be for value and generally would just be a donation to his range.

Good fold.
1) We have a diamond in our hand, which is bad.
2) We don't block ATo, which is significantly more likely to flat a 3bet pre than KTo.

A much better hand to call with would be As Ah, or really any AA without a diamond.

Exploitatively speaking though, I doubt a competent player would take this line with a bluff against your obvious overpair very often. He expects you to get stationy with your overpairs, as most players do, so he probably underbluffs in this spot.

In addition to that, I doubt he flats flop, leads turn and jams river with a draw. If he wanted to play his draw aggressively, then he would simply x/r the flop or turn (most likely flop), at least that's what I would expect most decent players to do.

There is a small chance that he is being really tricky and creative. Maybe he took a weird line with JJ or QQ. But honestly, I think there's an 80% chance he had you beat.