$1/2 NL.

Villain. ~18 year old kid. Sat down ~1 hour ago and has been playing pretty aggressively and cards absolutely running over him. He is clearly fairly inexperienced... doing a lot of donk betting, min-raising ... and seems to be overplaying top pair, etc. Everything is working for him as he is turning straights, gross two-pairs, etc. Playing a lot of hands (for a while, until something seemed to distract him on his phone). Not afraid to make big bets... not totally clear if he is making big _bluffs_, though certainly seems like some (sometimes not totally clear as he's pushed people off top pair by blasting middle pair, etc.). ~$1K

Hero. Middle aged white guy. Should have pretty tight image to Villain, if he's paying attention. $475

Hero is UTG and opens to $10 with JJ. ~5 callers and then Villain in SB min raises to $20. Hero 4 bets to $75. Everyone folds... Villain insta-calls.

Flop (Pot: $200): AKJ

Villain checks, Hero bets $100. Villain calls quickly.

Turn (Pot $400): T

Villain checks. Hero thinks for 10 seconds or so, checks.

River (Pot $400): 4

Villain moves all-in (Hero has $300 remaining). Hero tanks for a while... I do eventually give him a look and see him giving me an intense stare down.

Thoughts?

Does he mostly raise or limp preflop? Has he 3bet previously? I almost want to exploitavely just call preflop to the 3bet because noobs often min 3bet like exclusively QQ+

I'd probably 4b larger as an exploit & just bomb the flop. He's probably re-jamming his 2p and never folding Ax, may even continue with most Kx. All his bull**** folds no matter what, so I think it's an inelastic spot for him. Check turn is about the only move we have, and vs a newbie, I'm likely puke folding river.

call

If the player is inexperienced, you can use the old Mike Caro tell that a stare down is a sign he's weak and call.

Call. Can’t be folding sets here. You have a diamond blocker to runner runner flush. Given your description he could be betting worse a lot of times and bluffing. Your check turn is standard but will induce a bluff a percentage of the time.

You say he’s playing aggressively but is he 3betting a lot? Pre could be fine if that’s the case; if he isn’t 3betting a lot, it’s a disaster.

Seems like V has a Q, was going to x/r ott, and moved in before he realized the flush hit otr, and now is terrified.

V is unlikely (consciously or not) turning his hand into a bluff.

Fold.

4! bigger. Too much dead money to 4! for that sizing.
AP I would call it off.

Here are my personal thoughts on the final call/fold decision, trying to separate from results as much as possible.

Reasons to fold:
- The general population at $1/$2 doesn't run enough large bluffs like this
- Bluffing here most likely requires turning some marginal made hand into a bluff, something I have also read is less likely to be done by low-stakes amateur players.
- It should be apparent that I have something on this board and probably something pretty large (i.e. 2p+). I could even have AQ or QQ and checked back the turn to trap (though obviously not super likely). So if he's thinking at all about my hand, he's trying to push me off of 2 pairs and sets... a dicey proposition.
- To the extent this matters, based on my 4-bet pre-flop, JJ is actually probably near the bottom of my range here... I should have higher sets in AA and KK, as well as AQ and QQ for straights (though I guess I probably bet the turn with a pretty large frequency with those). AK is the main worse hand I have here. Maybe a balanced 4-bet range would also have some suited wheel As for bluffs I guess, but I can guarantee that the actual "me" wasn't going to 4-bet those in this situation.

Reasons to call:
- If I believe he might shove two pairs here, of which he should have a good number, then I beat the bottom of his value range and that should probably be enough to call.
- The J blocker and A, T on the board makes back door flushes a lot less likely than I think I realized in game.
- I do think this player in particular leads out a Q on the turn with a very high frequency compared to an average player who might very well try to check-raise there.
- Live "read" of high intensity stare down

It seems like reasons to call mostly depend on believing I have a read on a substantial deviation in this player vs. the $1/$2 average player. Which in general is not something I feel like I have a lot of confidence in at this stage of my development.

Does anyone think turn should have been a bet?

I would have 4-bet to at least $100 against this player type.

Turn is probably a bet. Against better players I would probably check but I'm going for full value here.

As played, river is a call. Folding is absolutely criminal. If he has it, reload and go after him again.

I've played with guys like this before. Sometimes you just have to cross your fingers and hope they don't have it. Against a player who overplays hands, you have to be willing to play huge pots with mediocre hands sometimes.

Meh... getting 700:300 makes the fold here reasonable. V is clearly a very special person. Now with this history, follow this guy around like a homesick puppy.

How do you have this description of him and then reason the fold by saying any reasonable 1/2 player wouldn't bluff here?

Can't be folding sets here as played.

Yeah... what I'm saying is that _without_ this read (i.e. if hypothetically I'd been against a random person from the $1/$2 pool, or someone who just sat down to play their first hand) it's probably an easy fold. Against this player, with this read, I now think I probably should have been able to find a call. Reads haven't been a big part of my game so far... trying to get more comfortable there.

Turn is not a bet unless you know you are ahead and also plan on betting river for value as well. Otherwise, in most situations you can only get one more street of value. If he calls it would put him at two pair or higher set straight most of the time which means if the board pairs again you’d be a smaller house or you are losing already. If he folds you potentially lost a street of value

By checking turn you keep ranges wide allowing you to value bet on river (which you would have done on turn) if checked or bluff catch with bottom of your value range. JJ being bottom or close to it.

Lol villain called 4bet with K9 OOP. I'd dream to be at a table with this villain.

Anyhow, I would of flatted his 3bet pre simply because I don't like bloating pot against these erratic type of unpredictable villains - yes you CAN wait these players out as they are not paying attention to your play at all. JJ not great post. As played, I would of bet pretty close to pot on flop. I too would of folded river.

Couple of people have said flat pre... just want to point out there were 5 other callers so if we flat we're taking the flop 7 ways and pretty much set mining at that point, right? I thought 4-bet against this player in this situation was mandatory since we can get it heads up in position against this guy.

The plan worked to perfection right up until the moment when he bluffed me off what would have been a $1K pot :-)

JeffChang, glad to hear that you (and most people) seem to think turn check back is right. I think in game I was thinking of bluff catching on the river. I just wasn't really mentally prepared to bluff catch for the rest of my stack. Gotta get used to that, I guess!

SpinzFTW... he called 4-bet with K9 offsuit and _then_ called on a flop that my 4 betting range should absolutely crush. I can't exactly look down on him though... if his plan was to float and then rip a huge bluff to push me off a set on a scary run-out, then as of now, he's the expert, not me...

Correct. Against these villains I am super patient, once I get my hand, I play for stacks. I understand if this seems overly nitty, or whatever, however you must understand against these villains, they live to bluff, and personally playing a med-highish 1 pair hand for stacks is not really my cup of tea.

If I did decide to 4bet, it would of been to $100-120 making SPR more in our favour. However, I am never doing that because it's simply too high variance against this villain (either he will simply fold out, scoop $20, or he flats and card higher than J comes, and it kills action/he will likely bluff you off your hand on a large c-bet).