2/2, Hero has a tight image and no history vs Villan. Villan is unknown.

UTG straddles 4, folds to Hero in MP with AcTs makes it 16, only UTG calls.

Flop comes AsTc4s.

UTG x. Hero bets 20 into a pot of 36. UTG quickly calls.

Turn comes AsTc4s5d.

UTG x. Hero bets 60 into a pot of 76. UTG quickly calls.

River brings AsTc4s5d8s completing the flush.

UTG donks 200 quickly into a pot of 196.



What do I do here? From online play I know that this line is super value heavy. I probably would'nt raise with much worse then the nuts here. On the other hand: What could he possibly turn into a bluff here? A gutshout? If UTG would have checked, I'd probably bet for value something like half pot. Vs this line I honestly did not consider a call and folded rather quick. Thoughts?

Well played imo.

What are we beating that takes this line? Not many IMO. We dont have enough of a read that villain is capable and I honestly don't think this is a line a capable player takes. With no history its an easy fold. I like how you played your hand for value here too.

Yeah, I'm not folding this getting 2-1 when I'm holding the Ts. V can be very wide from the straddle.

He's going to have to show me 7s6s, KsQs or QsJs. He can have so many Ax that we beat.

If you fold this, you're folding too much.

Yeah, that is what I thought after folding and is the reason for posting this here. Still not sure, if the fold is okayas an exploitive fold. Ingame I was like "He is not betting worse for value like this plus he does not have any resonable bluffs" so I just mucked it. But especially live one has to consinder a random amount of spew the average Joe comes up with. Maybe the Ts in my hand makes the difference here to find a call. Also intresting to see that the forum is somewhat split between easy fold and mandotory call.

If it's super value heavy online, it's extra super value heavy live.

There's plenty of merit for folding here but I would need more info such as what does he look like, what are the stack sizes (is 200 an all in bet? If so I snap), how long have you played with him, does he always defend straddles, is he playing passive, aggressive, and lots more info. Even though we have no reads on him there are still reads just by looking at how he stacks his chips, handles cards, everything, so this can literally go either way.

I am rather famously a Payoff Wizard in these parts, but I mean, Top Two is the best have you’re ever gonna have here, you HAVE to just call and pay him if you’re beat. I’m fine laying down AK no spade, but not top two.

You know how they say if you never fold a winner, you’re calling too much? Well the inverse is also true: if you never call when you’re beat, you’re folding too much.

67. Spades. Sets. Fold. Easy fold vs unknown 2/2 player.

Also, easier decision, fold preflop.

Pre: MP is a bit ambiguous as a position, but I think this ATo marginal raise, and dependent on people behind us. If we do raise, I'm making it 20.
River: We should take a Bayesian approach to ranges that are based on typical LL players as our default. Given our priors, it's a fold. To the commenter who says if we fold this we fold too much; sure it may be exploitable, but so few people at this level are picking up on this, that I wouldn't worry.

This is where I think we need to be super careful, and where Ed Miller's piece on Bayesian Inference in Playing the Player is so important. The vast majority of 1/2 1/3 players are loose passive, and only take this line with a big hand. A few bits of info like his demographic or a few raises doesn't immediately put him in the 20%, it just slightly changes the probability. The chances are he's still a typical loose passive who just caught some hands.

Nothing really misses, so I can't think of any bluffs that make sense. Without any reads I'm not willing to assume that anyone will suddenly bomb this river to turn their ace or worse two pair into a bluff - either on purpose or accidentally - so I definitely wanna fold here. I don't think it's even close tbh. Let's at least develop some reads first before we contemplate calling here.

Majority wants to fold, so I folded and UTG proudly shows

well now you have history.

Hitchens made a really good points here. At the risk of being results-oriented:

Hitchens - I still think it comes down to the pot odds. I'm ready to follow Rev. Bayes' sermon at even money, not 2-1. I would be grateful for your thoughts on how Bayesian analysis would be helpful in this particular situation. H blocks some of V's value but blocks flush combos too. We would think preflop has condensed V's range to Ax, pocket pairs and suited connectors/one-gappers, but I'd love to know what you think. V has a lot of A4/A5/A8 he could be value betting here (even though it's a polarized sizing).

Tilt4Deception: Did V have the Js ?

Now you know. Youdid not give any details about villain in your description? Age, race, clothing, how he stacked his chips. Talk or no talk

I like the fold against an unknown and think you played it well. But now you have a data point.