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Originally Posted by deuceblocker
I was just making an approximation. Your figures indicate 26%, adding half of the ties.
No, what I posted clearly shows 23.5% equity. 21.1% wins and 4.9% ties.
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I think it is closer than people are indicating, because it he has 2-pair, a set, or some bluff, you have him crushed, and that doesn't need to happen often getting 26% against a straight and needing 36%.
I agree it's close. We have ~ 95% equity against 2 pairs/sets (can't really see V getting here a significant amount of the time with any other hands). So, with 23.5% equity against straights, 95% equity against non-straight hands, and needing 36% equity for a call to be break-even:
0.235 * (1 - x) + 0.95 * x = 0.36 => x ~= 0.175
We need V to have something other than a straight more than 17.5% of the time for a call to be +EV. I think we see V shoving 2 pairs/sets more like 10% of the time, but I don't think it's totally unreasonable to say 20%.