2/5 9 handed rake free game

Villain - retired regular who doesnt seem to get out of line. mostly limps and is passive post flop
Hero - young TAG. has shown down the winner in some big pots and also has taken it down post flop without showing.

Playing $950 EFF, Hero covers all

Action

UTG +1 limps 5, Hero - UTG +2 raises to 25 with KK
Folds to button who calls, SB also calls. limper folds. 3 ways to flop

Flop ($85)- K T 9 rainbow
Sb checks, Hero checks, Button bets 60
SB calls 60, Hero check-raises to $200
Button folds, SB calls the 200

Turn ($545) - offsuit J
SB rips all in for $725

Hero? would love to hear thoughts on this one.

I would bet the flop since that's a flop that should get calls anyway.

As played, the only queen that makes sense here is QJ. He most likely (especially players who don't get outa line) wouldn't bet 725 into 545 w/o a str8. It sucks but we have to lay it down to a passive old man.

I don't agree. X/r on the this board seems fine.

I would call the shove. If he always has a straight, you don't have odds to call. However, you win if the board pair and chop if a Q hits, unless he has AQ. As you indicated, there aren't many Qs that make sense. He could maybe think he is protecting a set or 2-pair or be bluffing the scare card. It a straight maybe 80% of the time, but still a call with pot odds.

Bet or check/raise on flop are fine, but c/r should be $250 - $300.

Turn absolutely sucks, and I think we need to fold unless you have some super read on SB.

From an exploitative perspective, betting the flop is mandatory barring a strong read that BTN auto-stabs when checked to. TP hands represent a lot of combos likely to bet when checked to, and we block them with top set. Checking with the hope of a C/R is better when we have middle or bottom set. Lots of hands in BTN's range like JT/J9/QT that tend to call a bet but not bet when checked to.

Turn seems close, probably a fold. We have ~ 23.5% against straights and we need ~ 36% to call. This can be two pair type hands sometimes, but I wouldn't expect that often enough from V as described.

Checkraise is good because this connected highish board gets bet a lot.

We have about 27% against straights, because a Q is usually a chop. However, if villain has QJ, he has one of your boat outs.

Yeesh.

PRE - pretty standard.

FLOP - usually when we're multi-way and monkey-in-the-middle as the PFR, I'll start with a check, with a plan to check-raise pretty often. Whether or not I'd c-bet top set here is going to be somewhat dependent on my reads for the two V's.

If I think BTN is likely to stab here, a check is fine, in the hopes SB calls and we can check-raise. If BTN is likely to check back all his draws, we have to bet.

If we're going to c-bet, I might go really big, like full pot, just because that T9 combo on board is going to smash our opponents' ranges. They'll have all sorts of 2P combos and draws that want to continue.

If we're going to check-raise, it has to be bigger, at least $240, if not $300. We're hoping to get stacks in with way the best of it.

When we check-raise, and the BTN folds, the SB is forced to defend wider. I'd think he'd be raising his 2P combos with a K at a pretty high frequency, and some of his T9 combos at least some of the time. His flat calling range is going to be weighted more towards draws.

TURN - We're about a 3:1 dog against straights, and we're getting worse than 2:1 pot odds to call. If our read on SB is that he's mostly passive post, and doesn't get out of line, it sucks, but this is just a fold. With no flush draws on board, he has almost no bluffs, and it's doubtful he's over-valuing 2P or calling our flop x/r with JJ, when we could have all the flopped sets and 2P.

Where do you get 27% from?

I get:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Ks Tc 9d Jh
PLAYER_1 Kh Kc
PLAYER_2 AQ,KQ,QJ,QT,Q9
2464 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
Kh Kc	23.5390%	21.1039%	4.8701%	520	120
AQ,KQ,QJ,QT,Q9	76.4610%	74.0260%	4.8701%	1824	120

I was just making an approximation. Your figures indicate 26%, adding half of the ties.

I think it is closer than people are indicating, because it he has 2-pair, a set, or some bluff, you have him crushed, and that doesn't need to happen often getting 26% against a straight and needing 36%.

Given reads this is a snap fold.

No, what I posted clearly shows 23.5% equity. 21.1% wins and 4.9% ties.

I agree it's close. We have ~ 95% equity against 2 pairs/sets (can't really see V getting here a significant amount of the time with any other hands). So, with 23.5% equity against straights, 95% equity against non-straight hands, and needing 36% equity for a call to be break-even:

0.235 * (1 - x) + 0.95 * x = 0.36 => x ~= 0.175

We need V to have something other than a straight more than 17.5% of the time for a call to be +EV. I think we see V shoving 2 pairs/sets more like 10% of the time, but I don't think it's totally unreasonable to say 20%.

Yeah, that is what I said before. If he doesn't have a straight 20% of the time, it is a call. Maybe it is a fold based on reads of villain, but I would normally call.

thanks for the replies. I tanked for like 3 mins and decided to fold. I just couldnt see this guy turning lower sets or 2 pair into bluffs on this turn.

I never found out what the SB had, but the button said he had 2 pair, so given that my chances of boating up go down a lot

so hopefully i found the correct fold.