I'd just fold vs this a lot of players - but vs an unknown young guy - eeeshhhh. Seems like a very exploitable fold - Tough to say - sometimes you can tell if you tank and watch them as it's tough to bluff for this much.

Probably just a call vs an unknown although i've folded some big hands before - and it was usually a mistake, but sometimes it pays off.

The question is obviously whether we should shove or just call. So let’s look at V’s reasonable value hands here (given the action): 53s, 44, 22, 66, KQ, QQ, 64. (We can ignore all his bluffs since the question “do we raise?” is not pertinent—he folds all his bluffs, so we make the exact same amount whether we call or raise.)

(Note: 66 (particularly with a Spade) is a perfectly reasonable hand to call a 1/3 pot-size bet here, closing the action with backdoor straight and flush draws along with the pair.)

((QQ is the least likely, of course—even against an OMC, it’s hard to imagine a V not 3-betting it pre, but stranger things have happened.))

If we shove, V will be getting over 5:1 on a call ($285 to win $1500). Which of the worse hands will call? I think of the group 64 is the only clear fold. Maaaybe 22—but, even then, with such a huge pot, it’s soooo hard to fold a set, sooooo easy to convince yourself “surely this could be ludicrously overplayed AA at least 15% of the time, yeah?”

(((KQ is obviously weaker than 22, but makes for a more tempting call due to blocker qualities—KK and QQ are much less likely for Hero.)))

I think we make an extra $285 every time he has QQ, 66, 44, and about 75% of the time he has 22 or KQ, and maybe, idk, 25% of the time he has 64.

We obviously lose $285 every time he has 53s.

There’s simply no way he has 53s more often than he has QQ/66/44/22/KQ. Just count the combos. The only way you get this math to work in favor of just calling is by having him fold sets—getting 5:1!—a ludicrously high percentage of the time. (Or to weight V’s range for check-raising the river to exactly 53 at an insanely high frequency.)

Just not seeing it. I would just call it with 44 or 22. But shoving everything else.

Why on earth did you check back the turn?

It's a SRP and you've shown no strength at all. You've played the hand like you have a weak Queen up until now. This feels like a set trying to get the best value from your KQ or whatever. "Laggy pre" doesn't mean he's playing 53o even closing the action. He may even have AQo once in a blue moon although probably not for that sizing. Snap call for me without a flush on board. I get the polarised sizing point - is he ever bet folding a set for this size given your image? Still not even considering folding and if we just call and he shows a set I'm packing up on tilt.

result: i called and he had 53o. im actually guessing the call is slightly losing with more combos of 53 than 66.

Illiterat called it.

Honestly, I don't think hero could have done much differently here, other than find a nitty fold to the river check raise, which many or most players couldn't do.

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I probably go $25 pre but $20 is fine

Otf $20 is fine and all, but youre only getting called by Qx/fd/sd mostly, so im more inclined to bet like $50 exploitatively just because there arent a ton of PP/4x/2x calling anyway. But its marginal, maybe your play is better, just a thought


As played ott im firing full pot for like $100 wtf is this check? Qx aint folding, fd probably isnt folding either, no obvious 2 pairs.

Otr as played im even more pissed i didnt pot the river, and now i probably gotta bet small to get Qx to call like $50-60. But as played im snap jamming and feel great about it. 66/44/22/KQ all getting stacked, and maybe he has a bluff idk, young guys are actually capable. if he has 53 oh well.

And 0 slowplayed 44/22? 0 KQo river overplay? 0 bluff raises into the nit who is considering folding the 2nd nuts?

The turn check is the glaring error for me never mind the river.

in my experience i make more catching bluffs and realizing 100% of my equity than betting turns with one pair hands when the turn card connects with two of the cards on board and is bad for my range - because in my experience i get CR'd on those turns quite frequently and im not 100% sure im not getting bluffed. I'm also always wary of blowing up the pot on turns like this when so many rivers suck. unfortunately im not used to being CR'd on the river after this turn action as i see it so rarely.

there is an a$$hole part of me that wishes i would have checked back the river too, for obvious reasons. lol, maybe checking back river is correct if you have no bluffs on the river, because no worse hands call (i do have bluffs here, though, so its obviously wrong to check).

Either you're playing at a very, very unusual 1/3 game or your logic is badly flawed. This is straightforward fat value, low stakes bread and butter. Turn card is a relative brick, if people are messing around with hands like 53 and 64 then they're messing around with all sorts of weak top pair/second pair nonsense and will make horrendous calling mistakes. Punish them.

It's a hard runout for hero to get much value. Maybe a terrible V will call with QJ. Seems like V would need to have at least AQ or better to find a call here. I could see checking back river if we bet big on the turn. But even if we can't target many hands for value, and there's a slight chance V could be trapping with 53, we have to bet.

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maybe just check back a royal flush in case you get hit on the head with a brick and cant table your hand to collect the ****ing pot.

You could see checking back river if we bet big on the turn? Am I reading this right? You could see checking back after just having rivered top set on a non-flush board where the only possible straight is 53? That is just… I don’t even have the words to describe how insane that would be.

Its a trivially easy call with Qx against uh… not this hero who might check back the 2nd nuts for fear of 53o double checking the nuts.

If you're serious about any of this, your game and your mindset need a lot of work. I'm sorry if I sound harsh, but this line of thinking just makes no sense at all.

You both need to state your priors.

My guess is you think V has a lot of QJ/QT/Q9/TT/99/88/77/etc. and not much that interacts with 642.
Then you fire away with KK on the turn because you can maybe do the same with AK and it makes most of the one pair hands indifferent, and a bunch have to call and they are all behind. Then you also get some value from all flush draws, although OOP that's discounted esp. with so much behind.


FWIW GTO wizard (200bb, no straddle) if it raises HJ and gets called by just BTN it checks Q42r like 92% of the time and bets A6s way more often than KK.
Maybe bets more with a two tone board, but I screwed up so can't see until tomorrow. But I would guess not.
When we check KK and BTN bets 50% pot, H now mostly calls KK (and checks 100% on 6 turn).
Even if BTN bets 33% KK still calls 40-50% of the time (and again checks 100% on 6 turn).
Obviously 53s isn't in anyone's range in robot land.


My assumption is more like V folds a lot on the flop and/or is planning on bluffing, good one pair hands are a small part of his range and he calls anything that interacts with 42 and the flush draws.
Betting turn gets raises from everything that beats you and if V called flop "with plans" then you'll get raised by a bunch of stuff that'll make both of H's options suck.
Yes, you'll get value from QJ or flush draws that don't raise ... but mostly any turn bet is getting a lot of folds from hands you beat. Now there is value in getting folds from A4 or whatever, but when you mostly get folds from hands you beat and get put in the blender with 9 SPR OOP on one pair and no chance of improving the rest of the time ... are you doing that well overall?


Then what do you do if you bet big on the turn and get a call? Do you bet any rivers other than the 2 outer K? Even if you pot turn it's still 3 SPR on the river and you are OOP and V can assume you have 1 pair most of the time.
In davo's spread limit game I'd probably be fine with bet 100 both streets but this isn't a $900 hand/board on the turn IMO.


Maybe you are thinking you'd bet 33% pot again on turn, and then hope for more calls? (even though GTO says raise more against smaller bets?)
Although we are still in a mediocre spot on most rivers if we do that, IMO.

Lol. Obv i was being results oriented, but ive always wanted to break out the “wheres the rest of that pot?” Line. And if tilted several on this forum imagine how tilted the 53o guy would get.

Hence why i referred to the check behind as basically being a dick move.

You are reading that right, but you seem to have overlooked some key info.

OP is a self-admitted nitty old man, and the PFR. If he c-bets flop for 1/3 pot, and bombs the turn on this board that mostly favors the straddle's range, what hands does the straddle have that will call the big turn bet, AND call a value bet on the K river, that hero actually beats?

With 3 of the K's accounted for, it's hard for V to show up with top 2, especially with two spades on board, the Qs being one of them, and the Ks in hero's hand. V isn't calling with a busted flush draw. He can't have AQs because the Qs is on board. Does AQ even call a river value bet if hero goes bet-bet-bet?

Maybe he's got AsXx and was prepared to bluff on a river spade, but he can't do that now. Doubtful V has been slow-playing 2P or a set. He either has garbage that can't call a bet, or he's got 53 and is just trapping.

If hero bombs the turn on a card that completes a straight draw and the V with the widest pre-flop range flat calls, then checks to us again on the river when the flush draw misses, it's pretty dangerous to bet.

If OP was a more aggro player with a wider opening range, who can show up with busted flush draws, some sets, some 2P, etc, I'd have no problem betting big on the turn and betting again on the river. But OP's image is going to induce opponents to slow play and trap.

Can you let us know what buttons calling range is to a HJ raise preflop?

I just listened to upswing pokers podcast aboht betting OOP as PFR, and it said that from a GTO perspective 9 high boards and lower are basically pure checks, and the reason why is that GTO plays a very tight strong range when cold calling not from BB, something which simply isnt true at live poker. Im not saying i hate checkibg flop. I hate checking back turn way more than flop though.

If I were you, I'd call. You thinking about folding is elevating the word 'nit' to a new level. By my current understanding of the game, I am never folding this river.

That said, if you somehow make an one-off exploitative fold for this hand, and he did have 53, you should be very proud and just ignore what the rest 99.99% of people are saying.

After all, the 99.99% population are not the top 0.01%.