1/3 $900 effective. im doing my usual thing which is being a nit.

$6 straddle

i make it $20 with KsKh HJ, button, straddle calls

Flop Qs4s2h checked to me i bet $20, button folds straddle calls

turn 6c straddle checks i check back


river Kc he checks i bet $75 (i think a mistake, $50 would be better). he c'r to $500?

hes a younger guy, in his 20s. laggy pre. havent seen a big bet from him b4 like this.

Call he could have a set.

thats a huge river raise. it's 53 all day but what are you going to do just fold 100% of your range? u gotta call it.

Bet turn.

Call river. NH when shown the goods.

Snap call, if he has 53 so be it but we are beating value like his sets. He could do this thinking hes stacking KQ w a set.

Or he watched too many videos and is bluffing w 65s because he blocks the straight and sets and he knows you can fold good hands.

I sigh call. You beat some of his value range and he could think you have AK.

I like your river sizing as well.

I think he has enough sets that we can jam.

If he called your open with 53, more power to him. Laggy guy could easily be bluffing whiffed spades.

To matzah's point, are 44/22/66 calling off a jam here?

Yuck.

I can't fold top set when we get here the way we did. If he slow played 53 on the turn, so be it. Seems at least as likely he's got KQ and is putting us on AA, AK, or AQ.

If it's our time to die, then it's our time to die.

But just call. Don't jam.

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Ouch. I felt every word of this.

Never bluffing a nitty old man, though. Even us maniacs have our limits.

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Don't like the "laggy" description without more explanation. Does he normally raise straddles? Does he normally raise wide and bet post in position?
Would be tempted to raise higher preflop too, if he's calling super wide and bluffing post.


Honestly think it's closer to a fold than anyone is saying. Like he's slow played 44/22 on the flop last to act, but now decided to rip 5x the river pot.
So if he's never bluffing it's mostly 4+ combos. of 53 vs. 3 combos. of 66.
Also esp. at 1-2 and 1-3 people will stupid big raise when they have the actual nuts way way more often than they'll do it with the 4th nuts, even if it's possible to deduce you rarely have the 1st or 3rd nuts. Also you haven't seen him bet big like this, which depending on the length of time leans it more heavily to not being the 4th nuts.
And it's _way_ more common for people to play any2 and then raise big when they hit the nuts than it is to play wider than average and bluff raise 3x pot your river bet hoping you fold good one pair hands. Esp. if you haven't seen him do anything big/weird.


I do think we should bet less on the river, due to our range mostly being one pair hands and only KK/KQ to beat any two pair.


Saying that I'd probably call at the table without good reads that V isn't bad/insane ... and lose to the nuts again, because no matter how unlikely it is they always have it.

Re-reading the OP in light of Illiterat's comment...

I've tried to find a bluff that would make sense here, and can't do it. For V to be bluffing, he'd have to think hero is going to over-fold AK or better, unless he's got KX, and is putting hero on AQ taking a strange line and going really thin for value

Young aggro V in the straddle could have 53. I would. There's a decently popular vlogger, Jaman Burton, who plays 53s like it's the nuts pre-flop. If young aggro kid is bingeing on vlogs, he's probably got 53 here at least some of the time.

That said, hero checked back turn. Hero could have JJ, TT, 99, or even some better pairs that don't like the run-out and are happy to check-back river and hopefully win at showdown. It's hard to give V credit for putting hero on a hand that's going to bet river.

It's also possible that 53 would donk-lead turn, when there are two spades on the flop. Even 53ss won't love taking the risk that another spade comes on the river. The turn 6 looks like such a brick that V could donk-lead for 2/3 pot and not expect hero to over-fold.

We're beating all of V's worse value, and it's 1/3, so I wonder how much "random nonsense" factor there is here. Like, does he take this line with Q6 maybe?

I think a re-shove is more +EV than a call, particularly if V thinks you’re nitty enough (or V is just passive enough) that V could just call you preflop with QQ. His River raise is so huge that he’s calling the last $300 with all his sets and probably all his 2-pair.

Just think we’re leaving too much value on the table by just calling. Obviously it’s nice to save the $300 when he has 53s, but I think he has enough sets/2-pair for the gamble to be worth it.

Respectfully, if we 3B shove over a huge river x/r, I don't think even QQ is going to call, given hero's nitty old man image.

I played with a true nitty old man last night. In 90 minutes at our table, he played 2 hands, and had the nuts at showdown both times.

If he gets action and wins big pots, probably a winning style lol.

If V is really good enough to fold 444 on a KQ642 board getting over 5:1 ($285 more into $1500!), then he can’t also be bad enough to check-raise that hand all the way up to $500 to begin with!

How many low stakes players are checking the nuts after you checked turn? Many of them would even lead turn

His river sizing is also too large. He checked and now doesn't want to miss value? Doesn't add up. I feel like he is spazzing with a hand that he doesn't know if it's best, like some 2P. I think you gotta call

Anyone considering folding is not a serious person.

We’re obviously not folding. The question is call or shove.

I think it’s shove and explained why.

He doesn't get action. He won two small pots.

If an OMC 3B jammed on me over a river check-raise, I'm folding anything that isn't the pure nuts. Doesn't matter what the odds are.

Not considering a shove, this overbet sizing is more often nuts than set imo.

If V raised to 200 or even 300, I might agree.
Raising to 500 though is _at best_ super polarized nuts or bluff, assuming he does this with 66 goes against a lot of data and 44/22 is mostly hopium. Maybe V is really that bad, and won't fold 66, but assuming that without more knowledge seems like a bad long term strat.


Again, to be clear, I assume I call at the table ... maybe even quickly with a "well I'm not raising and not folding, so lol only one option" ... but being able to think about it for minutes safely away from the table, then we really need V to be overvaluing hands in a bad way or doing weird things or capable of bluffing for huge amounts, so I doubt it's a long term profitable call. It's just the stone cold nuts more than a genius play. Like we need 39% equity vs. range to break even and we don't even have that vs. 53,66,44,22 ... it is 43% vs. 5x3x and 66, so I guess the call is "good" but lol shoving.

There's even this video of "good" players doing the same human BS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcHra9RMw0A

Also, and I don't mean to say your game is bad or you can't contribute as usefully as other players most of the time, I feel it's fair to point out that davomalvolio doesn't play in games where people can x/raise 3x the entire pot on the river after you bet 3/4 pot IP and H can then think about shoving for another 100bb.

Lags love to overbet when they hit their unlikely straight with 64, 63, 53, 42, etc. to make up for the money they leak in mining...so I think that's mostly what's going on here.

If this is the "loose preflop, reasonable postflop" type then I can't see how bluffs or even sets play it this way.

But I see the confounding factor is that you bet 1/4 pot on the flop and checked the turn so it looks like you have AK at best and as such, two pair+ and bluffs have more incentive to c/r the river.
If you haven't seen a big bet like this before I would consider folding a % of the time

You checked the turn behind (why?), so villain will assume you don't have QQ or KK, I'd guess. Therefore I think he would consider his smaller sets to be the nuts here. But on that note, I have no idea what he's thinking, because if he wants to extract value from your AK, which would be a likely holding for you here, much more likely than a set, then why use this humongous sizing? So maybe he's actually bluffing, thinking: I'm gonna push this guy off AK, so I gotta go big.

Not folding obviously, especially when your hand is so underrepped. I don't want him to hero fold a lower set and only call with the nuts, so I probably just call the river.