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Top Set in 4! Pot Top Set in 4! Pot

10-22-2023 , 10:18 AM
Hand: $5/10/20 live cash. $5.5k effective. Hero in LJ opens KcKs to $60, SB 3! 240, Hero 4! to $600, SB calls. Flop KdJs3d. Villian checks, Hero checks. Turn 3c. Villian $450, Hero calls. River Jc. Villian checks, Hero ??

Is a jam here too greedy? Maybe a bet of $600 (around 1/3rd pot) is better in this spot?

I don't think Villian is going to be bet/checking Jx combos very often. His hand looks like AdQd, 10s, QQ, or AA.

Also, I know solver favors checking back flop given we block so much of Villian's value combos (AK), but when ranges are quite narrow as in this configuration, at what frequency, if any, should we be checking back flop? Feel like our entire range wants to bet quarter pot on this texture. Also, hypothetically, if we had bet quarter pot on flop and Villain raised, should we be 3! or calling?

For bluffs given my ~2x river sizing, I'm thinking K5/K4s combos. Can't think of much else I'd call turn with besides Ax diamonds, but we'd want villain to hold these hands, right?

Cheers,
ringring088

Last edited by Garick; 10-22-2023 at 10:49 AM. Reason: removed results
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10-22-2023 , 10:50 AM
Welcome to the forum. Please don't include results (including your last action) in you OPs, as they bias people's advice. Wait at least 24 hours before posting them.
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10-22-2023 , 11:25 AM
I agree with OP; I prefer to bet small on flop in position, even though it's not solver approved. If we are LAG, we have some semi-bluffs to protect on turn and I think a small bet protects these hands.

Turn: standard.

River: I think V would continue to lead with his JJ. I think we have to bet small, targeting thin value - AK and AA. V has some A3s. We're not getting value from QQ. I don't think we get to river with many bluffs, given preflop and turn action and paired board.
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10-22-2023 , 11:42 AM
Small flop

Ap small river maybe 33-40%? Get a crying call from QQ
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10-22-2023 , 02:08 PM
On this texture and since we're deeper we want to start getting money in on the flop. Although checks can be mixed in for sure I think I prefer a quarter pot bet here.

If you get CR'd I think you just call with all of your continues as you only have 2 hands that really want to 3 bet the flop so I think mixing would be too difficult.

This is all considering villain doesn't have tendencies that would make you want to deviate.

As played I would raise the turn small because you want to start building the pot or else you're relegated to some weird river play.

As played just bet like 2/3 on river.
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10-22-2023 , 06:56 PM
$1300
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10-23-2023 , 01:12 AM
can you tell me what sim you're looking at? when i look at 200 bb hj vs sb your hand is a mix leaning towards flat and it will never 4b k3/k4ss type hands. also its range betting this flop.

for reference im looking at gto wizard nl500 200bb

i dont really ever see solver using an overbet sizing otr when it gets here with like a 1.5 spr, and from a logical standpoint, i dont think you're really going to be perceived to have any bluffs here and you're probably never going to get into this spot again so you should do what your hand prefers imo. i think its fairly unlikely V has AA from the combination of the turn small stab and river check (i expect AA to bet the river if he traps pre and bets the turn), and i think its fairly unlikely he stabs the turn small with TT to give up (makes no sense as you're pretty much never checking back this flop after 4bing to fold to a single bet and he has no equity) and QQ (same idea as TT). idk what he has to be honest but id probably play vs Kx since that seems the hand most likely to actually bet the turn and call the river despite our blockers. i dont think 2x pot really maximizes value vs that hand class (i think he folds them extremely often).

quick edit. if u use research mode to look at deeper sims pre, u can seem at 200bb its 4bing KK about half of the time here but when you get into the 300bb sim in the same positions its flatting 90% of the time. just some random stuff to think about.

Last edited by submersible; 10-23-2023 at 01:24 AM.
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10-23-2023 , 02:06 AM
2x river seems horrible unless V is a special clown who’ll defend his dick size with mid pair for 2x OTR.
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10-24-2023 , 10:56 AM
As played I think anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 pot seems okay, maybe induce a raise from Jx?

I am range betting this flop. Solver will bet close to 100% of hands on this flop (this is the general rule for most K high flops in 4bet pots).

I think range betting somewhere between 15% pot and 25% pot is fine. Another philosophy would be to mix like 10% pot and 25% pot. 25% pot is mainly AA, JJ, KJ, AK, weaker Kx (your 4 bet bluffs which should be KTs-KQs) mixes 25% and 10%, and KK and QQ prefer 10%.

Most of your bluff part of range would use 25% pot.

A way to think about this is when we bet 10% pot with QQ, we can get called by worse, and KK protects that range. KK is also incentivized to bet small blocking the call range and unblocking bluffs. Another thing about this is that live players don't know how to react to 10% pot, so if you know this part of the game tree better than they do, they are bound to make mistakes.

Another interesting point about you hand is that when we are this deep from LJ facing SB 3bet, our main action from solver is to flat KK, not 4bet. Here is GTO Wizard's range for 200bb at 500NL rake for LJ vs SB:



In general, all of these factors should influence us a bit in favor of flatting KK:

1. We are in earlier positions, including LJ, especially given this game has a straddle.

2. We we close the action heads up,

3. We are in position against a SB or BB 3bet, and

4. We are very deep.
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10-27-2023 , 03:32 AM
no specific sim, was just thinking generally. This response and spot made me realize I have quite a bit to learn. And that I’m unbalanced. Gracias
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