UTG middle aged hispanic guy (1300+)opens 20
Hero lag asian kid is SB(1300+) with 99 and calls
BB middle aged black station(300+)calls

flop is 972r
pot 60

hero checks
bb checks
UTG bets 35
hero raises 100
bb folds
UTG calls

turn is Ax 4 suit board
pot is 260

hero bets 150
villian ships all in
hero ?


UTG sat down about 1.5 hours ago and bought in twice for 300 each. i valuetowned him with top top his first hand. He then rebought to 300 and ran semi hot against the two fish at the table for a couple hands and got it up to 1300. hes fairly active and has folded maybe 3-4 times per orbit and open raised 4-5x a couple hands in various positions. i would say hes prob 30/20 AF:2 or something judging from this short sample size.

i remember the following showdown hands UTG villain showed if that helps with the hand review at all

thought process


results

Pretty bad cooler. I personally am paying him off. I don't care that he overships so hard. The fact that he's bad (as represented from the other hands) informs me that he can have 22 / 77 / A9 / A7.

Personally, I know I'm not getting away here. ****ty spot, but I suppose you can find a fold just because of the stack sizes. His ******ed donkship makes me scared, but I suppose the real question is would he do this with AQ / AK type of hands? (is he that bad?).

Whatever. I pay off.
My two cents.

Standard cooler, results don't matter. You can pretty much never fold here unless stacks are like 600bb+ deep

Raise more on the flop $160-$200.

Doing so would make the pot $320 -$400 On the turn which makes it easy to get stacks in by the river.

Snap call. If he has aa good for him but u beat smaller sets, two pairs, and everything else.

Also the fact that he shipped turn instead of flatting makes me strongly discount top set. There are no real draws out there except for a few straight draws like 108. There is no reason for him to raise turn wih top set when few cards can kill him, u might keep bluffing and he's taking ur stack on river anyways if u have set. I think smaller sets and a9 is wayyyyyy more likely

Im aware that doing so would greatly lower the SPR and make it easy to get stacks but to a random live player wouldn't a check x6+ raise on such a dry board look a little too strong to make his weaker hands call?

so i guess im being just results oriented i guess?

well if you c/r in the first place then you should be doing it because you think villain has a hand like an over-pair imo otherwise im just c/c and waiting for the turn to c/r

unless hes cbetting only his made hands, i dont think c/r is correct because you can still get tons of value most of the time against over-pairs on the turn.

but anyway, if you think his range is a lot of overpairs, you can get away with a huge c/r because if hes calling 100 with AA-TT then he's calling 160 too

yea you caught the top of his range

This is a snap call, you're not deep enough to consider folding.

all right thanks everyone, guess im just being too results oriented. I guess it was just getting felted for 250bb+ over and over these past couple sessions eventually got to my confidence and made me question my ability as a player

Knowing your results, and knowing your read on this opponent still makes it a call, but still a pause for concern. The over ship is suspect. Against, a tight player, this is an easy fold in the same spot. As for the other poster that stated you have to be 600bb deep to consider folding, I disagree. I feel more like 300bb seems more correct.

Wait, this is a math problem people. You need to call $1080 to win $1640. You need 40% equity to call. Since this guy is 30/20, here is a tight range for him:

Easy call.

Now, it is interesting to think about possible regs against whom you might fold. I can think of a few.

Hate the turn bet. When villain calls your flop checkraise on that dry board his most likely hand is TT-AA. When the ace hits the turn, a bet is simply gonna fold out TT-KK and that's our money making hand range. I think we should check this non-flushdraw turn board, expecting villain to check behind lot, and then value bet the river for whatever amount you think villain will call with an underpair to the Ace. IMO, that's the best way to make more money in this spot once the horrible action killer ace hits the turn.

An alternative line is to bet a low enough amount on the turn to keep TT-KK calling down. I don't know what that sweet spot perfect bet size is but your bet of 57% pot is too much imo. The right amount might be something really low like 20% pot. Villain dependent obv.

So, I guess I would say that once the ace hits the turn, these are the two approaches I would consider. I don't like your approach. Either check, or bet a lot smaller. The ace hitting the turn changes everything.

Omg snap call

Definitely a call when your only behind aces.