Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
Nobody has really explained why the flop is a call. There are no likely draws in Villain's range. It's not like he's going to "miss" the turn and stop betting.
In these situations I try to remember that poker is a game of information. When villain bets flop he is giving us information. When we call the flop, we are giving him information. Most villains at this level will slow down if weak or medium strength once the preflop raiser flats them on the flop. They will also (usually) give off tells on the turn to include betting and sizing tells and general live read tells. Not saying we should be soul reading, but occasionally, villains will give us valuable information so we can make the correct play.
I was in two similar spots the other day. I raised preflop in position, and in both spots I completely whiffed. Game 2/5nl, eff stacks $500+
First scenario, 3-limpers, I raise to $20 w KT, 2 callers MP and LP,
flop($60) Q
8
6
V1 semi thinking ABC players leads out $30, V2 folds, I call
Turn($120) 4
V1 starts stacking and restacking his chips contemplating the "perfect" bet amount, first he's at $40, then $45, then $100, then down to $60, then on reflection $55 and is just stacking and restacking for a good minute until he gets "just" the right amount of $55 then he bets $55. I make it $200...
V1 had very clear sizing tells when he was strong and weak and he tended to overbet drawy boards when he had a strong value hand, but tended to do this stacking bs when he had a weak value hand which was confirmed by the weak turn bet. He says, "you have KQ? AQ huh?" and then folds without showing.
Scenario 2. Similar situation, but in this case, V blasts the pot on the turn for a near pot sized bet, I go away without a second thought. V flashes me TPTK...
So I'm in favor of peeling one off when in position when we have decent equity because our villains will almost always define their hand, intent, strength, etc with their turn bet, sizing, and mannerisms. I don't like relying on physical tells to justify play because I think players make the mistake of leveling themselves too much, however, physical tells when combined with good profiling based on betting patterns and sizing tells and tendencies, is a POWERFUL combination telling us what our villains have and whether or not we can blow them off their hand or we should just surrender or if we should just flat our value hands and let them value own themselves.
One thing I've noticed about tons of really good players is that they tend to be sticky as all hell. They are rarely if ever one and done. When the stacks are deep enough, when they have enough equity, when their villains are transparent, really good players stick around. I've come to interpret this as better players being able to utilize the information better than their opponents. The more betting, the more streets played, the more information exchanged, the more it favors the better player. Sometimes, in situations like this, we end up folding turn. And I'm fine with that because in other situations we win pots our villains would not have won or we extract more value than our villains would have extracted. Sure, on occasion we may value own ourselves, but over the long run, if done correctly we are making more than we lose and more importantly, due to reciprocity, we are making more money than our villains and thus are up longterm vs them
Last edited by dgiharris; 01-05-2015 at 08:34 PM.