2/3/5, 1000

AdQd CO

Raise 15, BTN calls

BTN is an older man who's pretty splashy, loves to aggress top pair and draws. He covers me.

Flop Ac Qh 4h, BTN checks, I bet 15, he raises 55, I raise 145, call

Turn Jh check check

River 4c check

Should I go for value here?

It depends on if V will call or raise you w/ worse. If yes to the first, bet, if yes to the second, check.

Are we even still good here with top two? I'm trying to determine what he r/c'd you with on the flop. My thought process is that a lot of his range should be hearts.
Maybe 44? We lose to those if we c-back. How much of his range realistically is hearts?

This may be narrowing his range too much, but if he was going for another c-raise on the turn with his flush, and missed, the river board pair might've slowed down a river bet. Alternatively, wouldn't V have simply b/f'd the river?

Pots 320. What would we bet if we boated up on the river and could we assume that a value-looking river bet could get V's flush to fold?

How is V checking flop on the BTN before you bet? Did he check out of turn? And then he raised? Are we sure this guy isn't angling on the flop?

AP, I think I'd keep betting the turn. My gut tells me this guy slow-played KK pre and now regrets it, or he's got AK and he's lost, or he's got AQ and we want him to fold.

I'd probably bet the river. So unlikely V is raising flop with a flush draw, then checking back when the flush comes in on the turn, or raising flop with a set, and just flat-calling your 3B.

There's about $320 in pot? I'd probably bet $200-$225.

i have a pretty tough time finding a hand that can xr flop and call a flop 3b thats worse than your hand when the 4 comes in and hearts get there. hh is undecipherable but im assuming hes bb. what would you even be hoping to get called by? AK?

I screwed up the positions, my bad. He was BB

I'd check river. Not enough value hands to target unless villain routinely calls river way too light.

A4 also got there on river.

Ugh, great point. It's awfully hard for the button to check-raise on the flop, lol. (Facepalm)

Well, now I'm even more confused. The flush comes in and V doesn't bet?

Part of me wants H to check back or fold the river and go onto the next hand. I guess just check back ap.

He might be check calling with the flush out of fear you boated, or he boated and is hoping you have the flush. I would check. Hard to imagine getting value from anything at all here. AK might take this line on the flop but should have 3 bet pre. I don't think he'll pay you off with a weak ace, assuming he massively overplayed one to get to this point.

FWIW, I would just value bet turn if you really believe your read that he likes to raise flop with TP.

It is very easy for him to have AhXx in his hand for TP that picked up NFD on turn. He can also have Ax with a kicker that has a heart. Or he can have AJ turned big 2pair. Those are all worse hands to your AQdd.

In other words, there are a lot of worse hands on the turn that can call a turn value bet if you really believe that he "loves to aggress with TP and draws"

Let's get some value for your hand. It's low stakes live NLHE. Finding good value bets where others can't find them is how you become a crusher.

Turn is actually a better street to go for value than the river because the many TP+1 card FD hands that can call a turn value bet to try to hit redraw might fold to a river bet when their redraw equity bricks out.

This read is a key factor IMO:

Older guys will slow play AKo from OOP to trap, then blast off with TPTK.

So he check raises flop, and hero 3B's, though kinda small. He's lost (doesn't know where he is). He's not ready to relinquish TPTK, and might spike a K, so he calls.

The Jh brings in the flush and straight draws, and he checks again. And again on river after turn checks through. Never giving this guy credit for a flush or straight here, as played.

The 4 river is a brick. He's not check raising flop and then flat calling a 3B with bottom set on a board this wet.

This is AK, all day. Yes, we absolutely need to go for value after we check back turn. He check raised flop and called a 3B. We under repped our hand with our check back on the turn. He should be willing to call a reasonable sized value bet here.

Bonus points if he folds AQ and we avoid a chop.


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how can you have him call AK and fold AQ, that seems logically inconsistent

looking at hh now i think flop 3b is too small. him being depolar makes going smaller here a bigger mistake too imo. didnt read the tp notes earlier but without extremely specific reads (more detailed than likes to aggress tp / draws) i think our hand is too weak to want to put another bet in otr given the action

I would bet round 25 otf and I would also raise more to like 225/250 vs ppl like him who's hardly ever folding and since we have position I would bet the turn around 165 with the plan of checking back the river if he calls.

If he calls with AK, he's calling with AQ. There's a chance he calls AK, not believing we have better, independent of the chance he folds AQ, believing we have better.

We could have AA, QQ, AQ, a flush, and even a straight here. V has few if any of those hands. AK and AQ are the top of his range.

We're betting for value, targeting AK. The possibility of folding out AQ is a free roll bonus of betting. We should bet either way, hoping he calls with AK or folds AQ.

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Thanks for replies everyone. Here is the result if you're curious.

this is one of those spots where you want to be very sure / clear what "he likes to aggress top pair" means because usually when you see lines like this (3b flop and other guy calls) ranges become very narrow very quickly. usually they either have a value hand or a decent draw or some kind of bluff when they x/r flop (most people dont even have the bluffs), and then when you 3b and he continues you really filter that down to his value hands and draws. so like by the river, this river in particular, you lose to a4 / q4, and you lose to all of his draws. think river bet pretty bad vs 95+% of any population in poker and maybe even higher than that

ok but why cant he have a flush? or a full house looking to check raise?

What boats and flushes does he have here? Wouldn't AA, QQ, and 44 generally want to get stacks in on the flop? Is he really x/r'ing flop and calling a 3B with JJ? Is he really going to x/r flop and call a 3B with just a flush draw, or 1P + the flush draw, and then check turn? After the turn checks through, he's really going to try to trap on the river with a boat or a flush?

Most players who flat call from the BB and x/r this flop will have AQ or 44. With OP's read on V, I'm also giving him AK, and possibly a slow-played KK that spaz-x/r's flop. It sounds crazy to turn KK into a bluff on an ace-high board, but I've seen it done, though I wouldn't expect KK to call hero's 3B.

Most players who x/r the flop with AQ or 44 are just going to want to get stacks in when hero 3B's, unless V is scared hero has AA or QQ, which AQ blocks, if he's good enough to be thinking on that level. If he has AQ, and decides to check-raise, and then just flat call hero's 3B, he probably isn't thinking on that level.

If he slow-played KK pre, he could have slow-played QQ, but it's nearly impossible to think he's not stacking off with QQ on the flop.

Some players will find a x/r bluff on the flop with KThh or KJhh, but he can't have KJhh when the Jh hits the turn. This V doesn't sound like one of those players who finds a x/r bluff with KThh, but if by chance he is, it's hard to credit him with checking again on the turn, and then checking again on the river when the turn checks through.

He might have AXhh, but it's doubtful he'd x/r flop, call our 3B, check turn to trap, and then check again on the river with the nut flush, rather than betting for value.

With KThh or AXhh, after he x/r'd flop and called a 3B, I can't imagine he was going for a double-check-raise on the turn when the flush comes in. He either has the nut flush and we don't, and we're not going to bet when the flush comes in, or he has the 2nd nut flush, and we could have the nut flush, so he's just planning to check-call.

There's only one combo of 44 available, and there again, it's hard to credit him with check-raising and flat-calling the flop 3B, then checking turn and river with quads.

MAYBE he's sand-bagging with a flush, or just a straight, and planning to call any bet here, but that just seems so unlikely, when he made his hand on the turn, and the turn checked-through. He'd be more likely to bet for value, then to hope we'll bet a worse hand for value or as a bluff. What bluffs do we have here, as played?

If he got scared on the flop with AQ, then he's scared money, and there's a chance he'll fold to a 2/3 pot bet, because the Jh on the turn brings in the straight and the flush, and he was already losing to AA, QQ, and 44.

If he didn't fold AK to our flop 3B, then he's sticky, and there's a chance he's not folding now, since we checked back on the turn, which he probably doesn't think we'd do with a flush or a straight, and probably not a set or 2P.

We can target AK and KK for value. He might fold AQ. I'll be amazed if he check-raises or shows up with better than AQ.

Geezus. That's insane. He x/r'd flop and called a 3B with no pair, just the 2nd nut flush draw, and a backdoor inside straight draw, then checked turn and check-called river. Madness.

Get his number. Ask him to text you whenever he's going to play. This guy's an ATM.

the full houses he would have would mostly be q4 and a4. i think if you think there's any meaningful chance villain has KK here you many want to work on your hand reading. i also think most people at these stakes whether right or wrong will check range as bb oop on the turn. given that button is primarily representing a fullhouse here (some aq as well), i dont think many flushes are incentivized to lead the river. anyways, dont want to go back and forth, maybe he has KK 95% of the time on the river and i just got lucky w results

He did, in fact, suck, but he won every hand he played against me that night looool

Bet more on the flop. This is a flop that either hit him or it didn't his call range isn't changing from $15 or $20 or $25 bet.

He isn't folding AK, AJ, FDs, GSs, Ax, or maybe Qx so get value now. He is folding 77 and 22 no matter what and they are a small portion of his range.

As played.... this is a really tough spot. Look at the combos that crush you. They are less than AK which I assume he would flat like they do in my casino. He could also have AJ. I'd bet small for value you can fold to a raise. Unlikely he is betting worse on the river but he will call with worse.

A splashy aggressive player probably won't flat a 3bet on that wet of a flop, and check 2 subsequent streets with a hand that beat you. If he had a combo draw on the flop and hit it on the turn, I think he would at least try to bet out on the river to extract some values. Also don't think he would risk having you check behind with fh,quad or even royal.

Most likely range is AK, AJ, or another combo of AQ that you're chopping with. A small bet sounds right. If you get check raised then it's an easy fold. If you avoid the chop with opponents aq that is a win too.

Don't be obtuse. I said I was mostly putting him on AK, maybe AQ, and it was POSSIBLE he slow-played KK pre-flop. The way this was played, that makes as much sense as A4, Q4, or K9hh.

V is terrible. Good luck figuring out what he thinks he's doing here.

His line doesn't make any sense. If he check-raises flop with just the 2nd nut flush draw, and hero 3B's, why wouldn't he bet turn when he makes the flush? Is he scared hero was 3B'ing the flop with a better flush draw, and he's getting flush-over-flushed?

What better flushes does hero have, that 3B the flop, when V has the Kh and the Qh is on board? Is hero 3B'ing the flop with AJhh, AThh, or A5hh, when V's x/r is repping 2P or a set?

If V thinks he's trapping on the turn, going for a check-raise, why not bet the river for value, rather than checking? If he still thinks he's trapping with the best hand, why not raise? If he thinks hero has a boat, why is he calling with the 2nd nut flush?

Nothing V did here makes any sense. Most good players are going to make a value bet in hero's spot, the way this was played.