It's really hard to say how to do the discounting because almost all hands need some discounting in terms of showing up river.

JTss is the only hand that probably appears 100% of the time, but personally I raise that preflop so whatever.

Why is J9ss T9ss super reasonable. In general, I just don't understand why you can discount flushes just because he checked. I think leading is pretty bad for him because he absolutely can't have air on this river, so leading only makes sense if he turns hands into bluffs, and honestly there aren't that many hands that is likely to be turned into bluffs.

I feel like you've just tunnel visioned into your read that a flush is unlikely, when the other instances are probably even more unlikely.

On that board, even a set might consider folding, so it seems outrageous to me that you think he'd call with worse than AQ. That's especially when those hands might not even be there preflop (suited connectors more likely to be in their l/c range).

This is the spot I really was interested in others' opinion on since it was the main reason that led me to shoving for value, so glad you brought it up.

My logic:

Villain has no history with me so should expect me to play ~similarly to the general population.

The general population is checking back a significant portion of their range in my spot (sets, 2p, possibly even straights), and even if villain doesn't think on that level, he should be able to realize the most likely river action if he checks on this board with the river scare card is check/check

Therefore, villain (and this is what I have seen as the standard at LLSNL in this spot, but also what I was curious to hear from other people what they have experienced) will lead most if not all of his flushes here on the river to prevent me from checking back my 2p/set/straight.

So, basically, under normal circumstances vs normal opponents he plays with regularly, it is much more likely for villain to bet and get called by worse than it is for him to check and me to bet worse, so therefore I expect him to have very few flushes when he checks river.

seems more likely he has you beat than him paying you off with worse, even if you're ahead more than 50% of the time i doubt he calls with worse 2p

You can definitely discount some flushes, but as I've explained, pretty much every other hand he has is also discounted. You're comparing likelihood of several different unlikely events, so you can't focus too much on the fact that one event is unlikely and let that get blown out of proportion.

Remember, AQ, the main hand you target, is discounting doubly, first by fact that he limped pre, and secondly he might fold that river quite reasonably as you have PLENTY of hands that beat him. Other hands you beat are even more likely to fold.

Also 44 KT QT JT, hands that do beat you, are yes slightly discounted, but definitely less so than other flushes and two pairs minus. If you discount them, even being a bit generous and making them call two pairs more often and have fewer flushes, pretty sure the combos would still work out against your favor. Like, I don't need to count them to know this.

*Grunch*

* the most likely hand he has that isn't folding is a straight
* I discount flushes less than you do in the OP. ordinary players at these stakes love to l/c with suited hands and then play super passively.
* I generally agree that players lead this river with a flush
* however, a thinking opponent will consider how likely you are to bluff vs. call and make their decision based on that
* You describe the vill as a passive player. he might be the type to check a flush here
* thus, I think it's reasonable to expect a reg-ish and passive player to check the river with a flush a non-zero amount of time and I think there's an argument that it's both the correct play and one he might even make a reasonable amount of the time.
* I think you are over-estimating how much he hero calls you on the river
* as a PFR who has bet all 3 streets, you're unlikely to have a complete airball on this board
* if you are "bluffing" he still may not be able to beat your bluff. seriously, what is the worst hand you can be bluffing with? KJ? QJ?
* you stated in the OP that he normally plays lower, so his calling range is going to be tighter than usual
* This means what you are really targeting are his AJ and AQ holdings.
* Given that he's never folding flushes (he has some in his range, and I think he has more than you do), and rarely (if ever) folding straights, you need him to call quite often when he has AQ/AJ/KQ which is optimistic at best.

Overall, I like what you're doing here, because you do look really bluffy. I just think this is a better play at 5/10 and above than it is here.

^ Succinctly and well put.

Would disagree with it being better at 5/10 and so. This hand just wouldn't go down the way it did in most of those games, and we wouldn't range the villain the same way either. People also fold good absolute value hands that lose to everything far more often making it even worse I think. The main saving grace is that at lower stakes there ARE people who just go "but I have two pair!!!" and can't fold.

grunch:
Too thin imo.

Without the river being a spade then it's prolly fine.
Not because he always has a flush but because he will fold 2p hands too often because we might have a flush.

i think in a vacuum its too thin.

im almost always jut checking back river. if im going for thin value here, i would def need a pretty good read on V to do it; a read that is much more detailed then just reading a couple sentences that describe his play.

if you have a good read on V and feel like you can v-bet thin here, then good for you and that would be a great play. but in a vacuum, def too thin i think.

I agree with this.

Thanks everyone for all the feedback definitely some good analysis on what I thought was a cool spot.

I realize I made a lot of strong assumptions on villains range, but in real time I really felt strongly about what I thought his range looked like and felt like I would get called by worse more than 50% of the time. It sounds like on paper this is too thin but I did really feel good about my reads at the time.

Results:

he called AQ seems like..

i still think it is a creative play with a hand with decent sdv

but poker is about the right move against the right person at right momemt with the right cards right

Looks too thin to me but that's great that it wasn't. I would probably say check> bet smaller> shove. It's really villain dependent though. Glad things worked out. Nice shove

Bad thin value for H and worse call by V? Unless H has xray glasses...man, that rvr is too wet for comfort.

Thin value really gets me going...

FWIW I think I would have checked back AA here (or bet small), but shoved AK/KK (especially the K combos) - which I think is correct? (I really don't think he has many/any set combos on the river here and I want to be targeting as many AJ/AQ combos as possible)