GRUNCH
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgalosk
Live hand played a few days ago. I think this a correct fold, but please let me know your thoughts.
1/2 NL
Hero late 20s white male. Plays very snug and hasn't shown down a loser in quite a while ($800)
Villain is a 2/5 regular who sometimes takes shots at 5/10. He moved to our table about 30 minutes ago and has mentioned a few times that he was coolered a few times today and stuck about 1k. He is a solid LAG who understands positioning. I've seen him squeeze play once or twice in the last half hour and he relentlessly punishes limpers with 20-27 dollar raises. He opens quite wide I've seen him open k6s from MP as well as A3o from the hijack. ($300)
2 limps to Villain who is in the Hijack. Villain raises to 20. 1 fold to Hero on the button who looks down at AQo. Hero thinks for a few seconds and the 3!'s to 65. All fold to Villain who thinks for about 20 seconds and then ships it for the additional $280. Hero folds.
Thoughts?
Few comments on this hand.
Villain is not the typical 1/2nl player, in effect he is a 2/5nl player and quasi 5/Tnl player who is playing what to him is the kiddie game. He is stuck $1k and has been aggro and fairly loose with a wide range at the table.
The thing to note about playing villains like this is that they aren't really going to do what you expect. They aren't going to roll over on their back and expose their belly to you in submission because you raise them or 3-bet them.
So, whenever you are in a game with a villain like this, you have to be prepared to go to war whenever you raise him because his ego isn't going to let him be "outplayed" by some 1/2nl player.
As played, I absolutely love the 3-bet, great adjustment and the correct play with AQ vs this villain. Unfortunately, he 4-bet shoved us and in effect he outplayed us because AQ is a horrible hand to have when facing a 4-bet shove.
So the argument now becomes, "Can/Should we play for stacks with AQ vs this villain?"
I wish I could have seen villain's demeanor at the table, granted, I think we level ourselves a lot with soul reads and trying to pick up physical tells. I maintain that in LLSNL soul reads and physical tells should only comprise about 10% of the information we use to make our decisions. In this case, I literally am on the fence whether we call his ship with AQ and thus I would use physical tells to help my decision.
THe other important consideration is how often you have been folding to him. If he has been pushing you around and overbet blasting you frequently and you've folded each time then I'd call.
Hmmmm.....
As with anything, it comes down to ranging. Would this V ship it in this spot with KQ or AJ?
That is the question!!!!!. If we can answer yes to this question, then we would be correct to play for stacks.
Unless he is blinded by tilt he has got to know that a 3-bet in 1/2nl is always JJ+.
So, lets give villain a range of 99+, AQ+, KQs
Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
92,464,416 games 0.055 secs 1,681,171,200 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win
Hand 0: 37.533% { AcQd }
Hand 1: 62.467% { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }
So against this range, our AQ is behind
We have to call $215 to win $345 meaning we are getting around 1.6:1 odds
We need about 1.5:1 odds to call, so basically this is a 0EV decision, slightly +EV.
I am of the opinion that if we are facing an all-in situation in which longterm that situation is 0EV that unless we are firmly pot committed we can just fold.
Sometimes, we just get outplayed. It happens.
Going forward though, I think the take away is that when you get villains that are aggro, we need to firmly understand how our actions will impact their aggressiveness. In the case of villains like this, don't raise them unless you are willing to go to war because they just aren't going to roll over on their bellies and surrender.
So, there are two ways we can deal with these types of villains.
#1) is that we 3-bet them light, much lighter than AQ. 99+, AT+, KJ+ and even throw a few SCs and S1Gs like T8s, 89s (10% of our 3-betting light range can consist of SCs and S1Gs). Initially our 3-bets "should" illicit flats and folds, but in the event we get shoved on, then we don't make an equity mistake by folding the weaker part of our 3-betting range.
#2) We go to war with our 3-betting range and only 3-bet hands we will play for stacks with: TT+, AQ+
There is also image considerations. IMAGE is a big component when we are facing super aggro players. How they see us will dictate how they respond to our aggression. And from your initial post (only post I read) this seems to be the missing ingredient. How does V see you? Does he respect you? Does he think you are a thinking player? Does he see you as a typical 1/2nl rec-fish? Have you been over folding to his aggression?
So.....
overall, I think a fold is fine here. Sometimes we get outplayed.
Going forward, try to get a handle on the above, especially your perceived image as perceived by villain. How he sees us should impact our decision. If he sees us as nitty then we can/should definitely widen our 3-betting light range against him until he adjust (obviously we want to pick our spots when 3-betting light, ideally spots where we can iso dead money and are in position). If he sees us as weak/tight then we should be prepared for pushback.
Hope something in all this rambling helped.
In a vacuum, fold is fine. Against this particular villain, I think it is really close either way, not a glaring error to fold or to call.