Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Could be wrong, but maybe what's happening here is that people are taking "90% of players won't adjust" and extrapolating from that to conclude we're beat 90% of the time facing this LRR, which is faulty logic.
It is much simpler than bringing out the big statistics guns. All we have to do is make a range. I am pretty familiar with this particular toy game bc I play quite a bit of low stakes ignition zone, and this is standard database analysis.
As an example from iggy and relating to your numbers: 90% of players have no 4bet other than KK+, and 10% spew hard. This creates an interesting dynamic where we must make a “general” 4bet range bc of the anon player pool, and bc of the great disparity between one extreme never bluffing, and the other spewing hard, the result is that an anon player on average has a somewhat balanced 4bet range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Consider an extreme world where 98% of players will LRR this spot exactly and only with KK+, while 2% are maniacs that will LRR this spot with 50% of holdings. Then, the probability that we're up against KK+ when we get LRR by an unknown is less than half (I calculate about 48% to be precise).
For those that hate statistics and want to think about this with a more arithmetic based approach...
Considering we already assume the lrr action;
-lrr 98% of the time is KK+
-2% of the time is 50% of holdings, then:
KK+ = 12 combos
12*98%= 11.76 combos
50% of hands = 1326*.5 = 663
663*2% = 13.26 combos
11.76+13.26 = 25.02 available combos
~47% of total combos being KK+
Key takeaway #1:
47% of a range being KK+ is actually a very strong range. If someone only had AKo and KK+ in their range, they would only have KK+ 42% of the time. I realize the equities of AKo/KK+ vs KK+/13 rando hands would be slightly different, but you’d be surprised playing around with an equity calculator.
Key takeaway #2:
Assuming 2% of the time someone has half of available combos is probably a bit of a stretch, but even if it’s not,
they aren’t stacking off with that full range. Our equity QQ vs gii range therefore is going to be drastically different, and so the onion peels back farther than the surface layer of 98% KK+ and 2% spazz. That’s an analysis for another day though I’m afraid.
A lot of people get stuck at a stake on ignition and wonder why they can’t beat a game where people are 4bet stuffing 59s. It’s because the range that contains 59s is actually very, very strong.