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Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Too cautious with top trips, top kicker?

02-28-2015 , 08:27 PM
Hand from $2-5. Effective stacks $700.

Villain in this hand is a pretty loose guy but who is capable of thinking and takes the game seriously. He's prone to making some spewy calls and bets, though, but also capable of random big folds. An example of his play from earlier:

Limped 3-way pot w/ two blinds and button. Flop is 345, two clubs. Villain is in SB. BB bets $25 into $15, button calls, villain makes it $100, BB goes all in for $250, button (who everyone knows is a serious, thinking player) shoves for $600 (covers villain), villain thinks a while and calls w/ set of 4s. Button has 62 for the straight. Villain lamented his call and said it was an obvious fold (which I think it was). He seemed to be more careful going forward into the session.

Little history between him and I: only played a few hands with him since he's been playing past couple days. I'd been pretty card-dead so he probably perceived me as pretty tight and nitty; this was reinforced by fact that the few times we'd been in pots he'd folded to bets from me on flop or turn, whereas he was prone to looser behavior with other players.

This pot, one limper and I raise to $25 in middle position w/ AQo. Get the same two players from last hand (button and villain) calling in SB and BB. Flop is QQ3r. SB (button from last hand) leads $35, BB calls, and I call. At this point, I'm sure one of these guys definitely has a Queen, although I'm not sure which one. And someone could have 33.

Turn is J, putting out two clubs. SB checks, BB (villain) bets $75. I elect to just call, considering our history, and considering how a raise from me screams KQ or AQ at the least, and I want to keep in his weaker Queens, which I'd feel I'd lose to a raise. Plus, there's also the possibility that he or the SB has QJ or 33. SB folds.

River ($330) is blank 7. He bets $200 w/ about $350 left behind. I just call, for the same reasons as I called the turn bet. I feel like my hand looks very much like a good queen or even stronger from way I've played it and, given our history w/ him being pretty careful with me, he should be considering that strongly. I feel like a raise, I only get called by better.

I show my hand first and he's very surprised, obviously having a queen. He said it was a good one.

Anyone feel that raising on turn or river (perhaps min-raising turn) is clearly the way to go? I feel like I played this hand well, considering history, but maybe I'm giving him too much credit in being able to fold a queen on the turn or river. To me, my hand would seem face-up if I raised, if I were in opponent's shoes considering previous action, but maybe I'm overthinking this.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
02-28-2015 , 08:38 PM
I feel that most low level opponents will NOT be able to get away from a Q here, also, it seems that you will need a raise somewhere to play for stacks. I would raise the turn. With the second club hitting the board there, it will look a little more bluffy.

Also, I'm not convinced that the str8 vs a set is an obvious fold. Yes, it's pretty obvious he is behind, but without knowing his exact stack size, it is hard to say a call is correct or incorrect. He has a fair number of outs vs a str8, and the BB's money somewhat offsets the odds. He may have indeed made the right play to call there.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
02-28-2015 , 09:19 PM
Based off that previous hand it seems like he still has a problem getting away from hands in spots where he should so yeah raise flop or turn.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
02-28-2015 , 09:25 PM
Sorry I didn't get to your hand because it bothered me too much that everyone knew a guy as a serious thinking player who was limping 62.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 09:52 AM
You say you put one of them on a Queen then you just call?

Raise the flop, like you had a big pocket pair and "want to see where you are at"

It sounds like you are more trying to not lose money, than to win it.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 11:21 AM
i think hero should be raising the turn
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 11:22 AM
i feel like it would be way more interesting to talk about the 62 v 44 hand...
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 11:47 AM
After thinking about this more, I think the flop was where I should have raised. I think once I call the flop I'm in a bad situation because my hand becomes more face up. But yeah the flop seems like the right place. Although it does bug me that my hand seems so face-up as the bets become bigger so I'm still curious how people would play this against very strong competition.

Regarding guy who limped 62 on button; he's a strong player (for a live player) but also just messes around and drinks sometimes and does silly things.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 12:05 PM
I don't think your hand is face up on the flop- all of your overpairs I imagine you're calling there, and sometimes underpairs I imagine too. You should raise flop to create a situation where you could get stacks in by the river.

By waiting until the river to raise with your image as a tight player, KQ is probably the worst hand you have and this player can maybe get away from Q10 or QJ, but not if you took the initiative earlier. You should still raise river once you get here though there's only realistic combo you're worried about: 33
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 02:29 PM
I like your line up until the river, given the constraints of your image. The flop is bone-dry and they read you as a tight player. Once there's been a bet and a call in front of you, I don't think a raise on this board looks like kings or queens from a tight player. It looks like exactly ace-queen.

Once he bets the turn, we're pretty confident he has a queen. And if we're right, then we know he'll fire again for us on virtually any river. So I think the smooth-call again let's us avoid giving him the opportunity to make a hero-fold.

So the real question is the river. Should we raise and risk value-owning ourself against 33 and qj? (Important note: I'm really only worried about those two specific hands in his range. 77, Q7, Q3 and JJ are technically possible but I'd deeply discount all of them).

I think the answer is probably yes. Villain has built a large pot, likely with trip queens. If you raise him here, it should be obvious that AQ is the bottom of your range. But he's going to debate between "this must be AQ" and "dammit, the pot is so big now! Does he *really* have AQ?" And then he's going to start thinking about $350 to win $1080. And then he's going to make a decision.

Every $2/5 player has at least one searing memory of the time they folded a strong hand because that nitty player *must* have the nuts, only to see that the nit was massively overvaluing an overpair. That memory is going to weigh on him. I think he makes the crying call with a lot of weaker queens. Crucially, I think there are more weak queens that make a grudging call in his range than there are QJs and 33s.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 02:45 PM
By the river we are ahead of:
4x KQ, 4x QT, 4x Q9, 4x Q8.
We are behind 3x 33, 3x QJ, 3x Q7.

I suspect he will call a jam with all of these.

Shove. Profit. Do blow with hookers.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 04:25 PM
Grunch.

The "serious thinking player" in the first hand you posted played his 62s horribly. Limping the BTN with that hand is pretty bad, but not the worst... Not raising the flop after flopping a straight is SOOOOOOO BAAAAADDD.

On to the hand... Pre is fine/standard. Flop... If you are certain that one of them has a Q, I might go ahead and start shoveling money in the pot asap, but TBH that is probably results oriented on your part. But with this mega dry flop and someone leading into you, I actually prefer flatting, especially with another player sandwiched in-between you and the bettor. The turn is among the worst cards in the deck unfortunately (J-8 are the worst IMO). He's still firing away... that's fine, but I want to get stacks in by the river assuming it's not a T or something. Raising and flatting are both fine I guess, but if you just flat and he checks the river, you won't be able to get your whole stack in. I guess I prefer raising. Probably make it $250 or so. As played, shove the river IMO. Even players who think you are tight will have trouble folding Qx after betting three streets.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by apokerplayer
After thinking about this more, I think the flop was where I should have raised. I think once I call the flop I'm in a bad situation because my hand becomes more face up. But yeah the flop seems like the right place. Although it does bug me that my hand seems so face-up as the bets become bigger so I'm still curious how people would play this against very strong competition.

Regarding guy who limped 62 on button; he's a strong player (for a live player) but also just messes around and drinks sometimes and does silly things.
Competition is not inherently weak or strong. Competition has exploitable tendencies. We can't give you advice on how to play this hand against "strong competition" unless we had specific tendencies you considered strong that we would be specifically trying to exploit. What we can tell you is how to play against the competition who you have described in the OP and I think everyone agrees that this guy is never getting away from any queen and if it wasn't "face up" that he was beat in the 44 hand I don't see how it could be face up here, and even if it was he probably doesn't have the emotional detachment from strong hands to be able to fold it anyway.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-01-2015 , 05:26 PM
Yeah that limped hand seemed pretty awful so maybe the villains are not as strong as you think they may be. Either way, I agree with raising and playing for stacks. I think you are giving these guys way too much credit and costing yourself money in the process.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-02-2015 , 02:52 AM
Thanks for comments. I may be giving people too much credit to be able to fold hands, it's true. After thinking about it some more, I think raising the flop is not the spot to raise; my hand very much looks like a strong queen. I think it's possible, with the specific dynamics of the hand, that it wasn't possible for me to make more money. I can easily imagine this player folding to a turn or river raise from me with a lone queen. Although if the dynamics were slightly different or the player slightly looser, I would have felt good raising either the turn or river.

And everyone berating the other guy; I'm not saying I think he's a genius. Obv limping w 62 is a joke. But he's decent and I think post flop he played the hand perfect, considering the dynamics and tendencies of the players involved (which I didn't get into.) just want to stick up for him; easy to berate someone for some tiny, silly decision that doesn't represent their usual capability.
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03-02-2015 , 03:08 AM
Raising turn or river looks a lot more like a queen than raising flop does.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-02-2015 , 04:00 AM
LOL was just thinking after reading OP's last post how great it would be if his was one of those "I'm not the hero" type hands where OP was the thinking 62 player.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-02-2015 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by apokerplayer
Hand from $2-5. Effective stacks $700.

Villain in this hand is a pretty loose guy but who is capable of thinking and takes the game seriously. He's prone to making some spewy calls and bets, though, but also capable of random big folds. An example of his play from earlier:

Limped 3-way pot w/ two blinds and button. Flop is 345, two clubs. Villain is in SB. BB bets $25 into $15, button calls, villain makes it $100, BB goes all in for $250, button (who everyone knows is a serious, thinking player) shoves for $600 (covers villain), villain thinks a while and calls w/ set of 4s. Button has 62 for the straight. Villain lamented his call and said it was an obvious fold (which I think it was). He seemed to be more careful going forward into the session.

Little history between him and I: only played a few hands with him since he's been playing past couple days. I'd been pretty card-dead so he probably perceived me as pretty tight and nitty; this was reinforced by fact that the few times we'd been in pots he'd folded to bets from me on flop or turn, whereas he was prone to looser behavior with other players.

This pot, one limper and I raise to $25 in middle position w/ AQo. Get the same two players from last hand (button and villain) calling in SB and BB. Flop is QQ3r. SB (button from last hand) leads $35, BB calls, and I call. At this point, I'm sure one of these guys definitely has a Queen, although I'm not sure which one. And someone could have 33.

Turn is J, putting out two clubs. SB checks, BB (villain) bets $75. I elect to just call, considering our history, and considering how a raise from me screams KQ or AQ at the least, and I want to keep in his weaker Queens, which I'd feel I'd lose to a raise. Plus, there's also the possibility that he or the SB has QJ or 33. SB folds.

River ($330) is blank 7. He bets $200 w/ about $350 left behind. I just call, for the same reasons as I called the turn bet. I feel like my hand looks very much like a good queen or even stronger from way I've played it and, given our history w/ him being pretty careful with me, he should be considering that strongly. I feel like a raise, I only get called by better.

I show my hand first and he's very surprised, obviously having a queen. He said it was a good one.

Anyone feel that raising on turn or river (perhaps min-raising turn) is clearly the way to go? I feel like I played this hand well, considering history, but maybe I'm giving him too much credit in being able to fold a queen on the turn or river. To me, my hand would seem face-up if I raised, if I were in opponent's shoes considering previous action, but maybe I'm overthinking this.
Grunch:

I don't think most 1/2 and 2/5 players will fold to trips on a board like that. That said, I like calling down the river for pot control against a villain that I give a lot of credit to. If you consider raising OTT, he's actions are shove>fold>call. So if he shoves, would you fold x% of time? I think it would put you in a difficult spot, therefore calling down the river was correct IMO.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-02-2015 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
By the river we are ahead of:
4x KQ, 4x QT, 4x Q9, 4x Q8.
We are behind 3x 33, 3x QJ, 3x Q7.

I suspect he will call a jam with all of these.

Shove. Profit. Do blow with hookers.
Never have I agreed more with a post on 2+2.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote
03-02-2015 , 08:22 PM
I think raising the flop to build the pot in order to fire big bullets on turn and river is the way to go. As played I would shove the river to get value from all queens.
Too cautious with top trips, top kicker? Quote

      
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