Quote:
Originally Posted by Woody0027
I agree with you ALL here after thinking more and more that i should have just folded pre-flop. I know my position and the size of his raise plays most parts but as i mentioned before this guy is NUTZ!
When ever i play in this club i do not play but the book.
And yes his average open with MO limpers is usually around the $100-$125 mark
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In an earlier post you said:
" the way he played he range is could be very wide here but the way the hand played out i will give the benifit of the doubt and say that i thought at the time he would have a hand close to the top of his range."
And in another you said:
"He has been playing very wild and the way the game had been playing he could have had anything.
He has shown down many hands but in the big pots he isually showed premiums which is why i was thinking about shoving the flop as me calling him pre-flop might have scared/ slowed him down into checking to me on the flop.
"
So this leads me to believe he is making much larger bets with medium pairs to take it down pre and smaller bets with his premium holdings to get at least one caller. As you said, he usually showed premiums at showdown.
If AJs truly is at the top of his range, how can you fold preflop?
However, would he not make the same size bet with AK vs. one open/raise in the hopes of getting it HU? If he would bet that much with AK/AQ, that's 24 combos he could have.
If you can put V on a range of ~24% removing JJ+ & AK/AQ you have ~65% equity. If he would do this with AK also, then you still have ~62% equity. Add in AQ & you have ~61% equity. Add in JJ-AA & you still have ~59% equity.
This is, however, putting him on a range of 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s+, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo.
Is this really what he would bet with here?
You need to stove his range & see how much equity you really have. If I have 60%+ equity, I shove, if, I have the bankroll. The reason Johnny Chan went into the final table [2nd time he won bracelet in main event] with such a huge stack: When it was down to 2 tables, he got involved in 12 hands where one player was all-in preflop. One player had AK & the other an underpair. Johnny won all 12 coin-flips.