Quote:
Originally Posted by garicasha
I’m a beginner but I have done it once to a much larger than usual 3bet and when it folded around the guy turned his aces over.
I felt like a genius because it saved me so much money, but I know in the long run there’s a lot more to it.
I think the most useful thing to do is start asking how are we so sure that they have these great hands? How will we know when they adjust? As long as the logic is sound I think it’s a reasonable play, if you’re up against aces or kings folding is rarely gonna be a bad choice.
But I also question if I was doing it because it made me seem so dang savvy. You know the common saying that narcissists don’t like themselves deep down? It’s a myth, they like themselves just fine. But when people say the myth, it makes then look smart like a psychologist despite being completely wrong. So I try to always challenge myself, am I doing this because it’s smart or because it makes me feel smart?
And with card removal it gets even worse; even if you’re only up against aces or kings half the time you’re 3-bet, that’s still 2 of your 6 outs missing.
You are absolutely right when you say that the question is "how sure are we that villain holds these hands and only these hands?"
Is folding AK weak tight? (I think you know my opinion.)
Is this a case of "monsters under the bed" syndrome?
Or is OP right when he says that "90% of the time villain holds JJ+."
What if it is 80% or 70% or 50%?
What if villain sometimes includes TT and AQ in their range or AJs or KQs?
What if Hero raises from the CO and villain 3 bets from the BN? Do you think that 3 bet range is wider?
What if Hero steal-raises from LP and villain 3 bets from the SB or BB? Do you think that 3 bet range is wider?
Do all 8 opponents have the exact same nitty 3 bet range?
What if villain is short stacked or tilted or drunk?
We'll never know for sure because OP folds 99% of his hands versus a 3 bet. And really we can never know for sure anyway. It is a guesstimate, at best.
All we can do is approximate villain ranges. Some of us are better at this than others and even those of us who are very good at this can be surprised from time to time and are maybe just off by a little bit here or there.
IF OP is right and the range is JJ+, I still think AK is playable but I can listen to a debate about whether to 4 bet or flat or fold.
If OP is wrong by even a little bit then he is losing value and playing weak-tight.