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Thin Value On River Vs. Older Woman Thin Value On River Vs. Older Woman

07-18-2022 , 05:03 PM
Playing 1/2. Been in the game for about an hour. Villain is in her 60s, seems to be on the passive side and sticky. Hero and Villain both have about $250.

Two limps to Hero in the CO who looks down at J10o. Hero raises to $12 and gets 4 callers.

($50) 972hhx. Checks to Hero who bets $25, Villain in MP calls.

($100) Turn brings Kx. Villain checks again and Hero bets $40 with the double-gutter. Villain tanks, holds cards out like she's going to fold, then calls.

($180) River comes Qh, bringing flush and giving Hero the straight. Villain checks. Hero?

Based on Villain's demeanor on the turn, I figured she was draw-heavy or had a marginal hand (unless she was playing games with me). When I hit the straight but the flush comes in, is this a mandatory bet? What do we think about betting small, say $50-70, then folding to a jam?

Thanks in advance for the feedback.
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07-18-2022 , 05:21 PM
if this lady is a calling station (aka rake maker) I am for sure betting for value here on the river. She has a lot of hands calling the flop and turn that she'llvpay you off on the river for the right size. The only thing she's gonna raise is the nuts. These types of players are getting to be rare, you can print money against these people heads up. sounds horrible since they are old but these are the same people that will eventually suck out on you LOL.
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07-18-2022 , 07:36 PM
I think you played the hand ok, but it’s been pretty thin every step of the way. Getting 4 callers with JTo is basically not what you want so if the table has had a tendency to play like that I don’t really like the open. I feel like the board is just enough to make betting into 4-opponents ok, but the table should be passive and fit or fold post flop to justify. If you are going to bet the turn size up, will make it easier to play rivers and you aren’t getting much fold equity with that 40$ bet vs. sticky opponent. If you sized up turn I think it makes it easier to go for value on the river. AP sheÂ’s never folding FD’s on the turn and you don’t really know if you made it tough for her 9x or combo draws with 40$ bet. So you are having a hard time ranging her. I’d rather isolate her range to stronger made hands and folds by sizing up turn or I’m just taking a free card if she has enough check raises.

AP she has plenty of flushes calling a second bet when K comes out. If you are gonna bet definitely go small and bet fold, I would expect her to lead a lot of flushes especially nuts so I don’t mind the thin value. Bet 40 and see if you get a crying call from one or two pair. You might value own yourself I wouldn’t worry about it
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07-18-2022 , 07:50 PM
It would be interesting to know who's in the hand, like when you raised, who exactly called? are there people left to act after you otf? If not, 4 ways I would check that with a gutter instead of betting vs sticky people and in a multiway hand someone might decide to raise, then we have to throw it away. Vs a station like that I'm betting most of the time. She's calling with a king most likely since she made alil hollywood move with one ott.
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07-18-2022 , 07:52 PM
Classic bet/fold spot. Tank call after your small turn bet allows you to discount flush heavily, so not expecting to be raised often. Possible she turned a gutter with QJ/QT. Given stickiness I’d go to $80-100 and expect to get looked up by Qx/9x
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07-18-2022 , 08:04 PM
Unless villain is hollywooding on the turn, this is almost never a flush draw. There are a lot of chips in the pot and hero didn’t bet many chips, therefore a flush draw has a very simple decision.

If we get check/raised anyway, we just fold and conclude that our turn read was wrong.
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07-19-2022 , 05:41 PM
Thanks for the feedback everyone.

Hero tank checked back and scooped when Villain mucked. She said that she "needed an 8 for the straight," so could've been a bare SD or pair + SD. Even though she likely wouldn't of called this time, felt like a good spot to think more on and go for value in the future. As I'm getting back to playing live, I realize I need to get comfortable bet/folding spots like these where I can know for certain that a river check/raise is the nuts 99% of the time.

Regarding the preflop raise, it felt right on the borderline for me. Might've been slightly on the loose side, but even though this table was quite passive, when I raised preflop I usually got 1 or 2 callers, not 3 or 4. People preferred to limp and see the flop cheaply, FWIW.
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07-19-2022 , 06:20 PM
When you bet this small OTT, the passive fish holding cards up looking despondent about to fold is almost never a flush draw. For reasons madlex said… flush draw has a simple decision.

You have the effective nuts here with JT on the river.
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07-19-2022 , 10:23 PM
Noob perspective:

Pre is kind of borderline. I might over-limp here, to be honest, with a speculative hand that plays decently multi-way. I guess I don't hate the open though. I assume your callers are both blinds plus the two limpers, and you're last to act, and that main V was one of the limpers?

That flop is pretty crappy for your range and much better for everyone else's limp/calling or blind-defending range, so I might be inclined to check it back. Based on your actual hand, it's not horrible. If you're going to bet, the sizing is fine.

I agree with others that your turn semi-bluff should be larger, more like 70, to get significant fold equity. The sizing you chose invites a lot of calls -- what were you going to do on the river if you missed? Barrel again?

On the river, yes this absolutely must be a bet against an opponent you describe as station-y. The K and Q are a pretty bad runout for whatever she was calling with on the flop, as her range and line here is weighted towards a lot of 9x (e.g. T9, 98 type hands), so 60-ish would be a good sizing to get called light. Yeah she probably folds a lot, but you're going to get paid off a lot more than you will value-own yourself. And, yes, I would be very uncomfortable facing a raise.

Edit: just saw your results -- needing an 8 for a straight means what, T6 or 56 (JT obviously got there). Seems...dubious.
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07-20-2022 , 12:39 AM
Grunch

Pre. Raising JTo over two limpers is ambitious even from the CO.

Flop this is 5 ways and you have Jhi with a gutter just take the free turn card.

Turn as played sure, it's a great card for you to bluff

River rare to be tank calling a flush draw on the turn but like you said you're only getting a cry call so make it small enough for a two pair to just call it. $50 is good.

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07-20-2022 , 12:42 AM
I agree with other posters saying turn bet was small. That card is great for you so you can size up a lot.

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07-20-2022 , 01:51 AM
Yeah, against this opponent, you can toss out a smallish value bet with no risk.

However, against a strong opponent, betting is silly, as a worse hand won't call you (if they don't have a flush, they have to be afraid you have it), and there's a nonzero chance you'll expose yourself to a bluff-shove (only really good players do this, but it's a great move and should be tried more often).
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