$1/2, hero has $800+ whole table covered. on a streak, making moves and good reads, looks like a dream session for me but main villain (V1 $350ish) was moved from another table and has only been at table for a few orbits, quiet, youngish guy, doesn't stand out for any reason yet, not sure if he has any read on my image other than im winning.

hero has AJ UTG+2

raise to $10, two callers including v2 in MP and v1 villain in the SB heads up. flop J82

V1 checks, I cbet $20 into $30, V2 folds, V1 thinks for about 15 seconds and c/raises to $60. I call. Turn 8, villain pretty quickly checks, I bet $90, villain tank/calls. river is a 2

villain tank checks

pot is $330 and there's $210 behind effective, shove or c/back?

What's he checking with that beats you? Nothing. But he's also probably not calling a bet, either. If he thinks you were on diamonds and has a J, he might call. But that's about it.

I don't think a bet has much value here.

Check and hope you are good. You beat kj and not much else

Grunch.

It is really tough with no previous reads. The only hands you are going to go value from are KJ, QJ, and maybe JT. The way he c/r the flop and played the turn, I think we can put him on one of those hands or a diamond draw. So it is either a way ahead or way behind situation.

Since we are fairly deep, I think it is a bet/fold situation. I would put a bet of $100 and then fold to a c/r on the river. Again, without reads it is tough, but this game is about value.

I am not a fan of the way you played the turn though. I think I check that back and snap call any non-diamond rivers,

The check raise OTF would have me thinking I should err on the side of caution on this hand since we don't know much about this V - I'd check it back and get a look at his cards. Maybe a J with a Kd or Qd kicker?

really confused by your post. if we think he has kj/qj/j10 or a diamond draw, how is it well ahead, way behind? its well ahead or slightly ahead then? and if he has that range, why is turn ever a check? you have to think he has nuts in his range for that to make sense imo

WTF k/r flop and k's turn?

I don't like your turn bet. k/r on flop, k turn seems super strong to me. (Does this story end with Vil having quad 8s? Sounds like it to me.)

A smarter 1/2 player might donk bet a FD in this spot, but it's incredibly bad to k/r a FD here if you can't ship it and apply pressure, then you're just OOP and w/o a plan on the turn UI cause you suck.

Regardless, we check back the turn because we are kind of WA/WB. If he has a naked FD, then we've picked up a bunch of equity. If he has Jx, hand is super stable. I'm not crazy about bloating the pot with just TPTK, so I'd check back turn for pot control and to induce a bet from weaker Jx hands on the river. This also gives us more room to play if the diamond rolls off on the river. We're in position, check back, re-eval and play a little poker.

Furthermore, he doesn't have 8x or 2x after k/r'ing flop. Unless that 8x is J8. So take him off a house on the river unless it's 8s full of Js, but again I think he's showing up with quads more often than a boat after the flop line and the way the board bricked out... IF YOU'RE BEAT.

That being said, it's 1/2. You can certainly b/f the river comfortably. I wouldn't jam it. Bet like 1/2 his effective stack.


On a personal note, leave girls out of this. "Check back like a girl." It's this narrow minded thinking like that that let's me bomb players like you on the river with complete air and ship pots, cause "girls don't bluff."

I think u overplayed this hand OTF/OTT. U shouldve absolutely had bet smaller ott if even bet turn at all.

As played river is a clear check back.

I don't think that is specifically just his range on the flop. After you get c/r, then sets are in his range at that point of the hand.

So that is why I would check behind the turn. The only way you can bet the turn is if you are positive he is on a draw. What do you do if he check/shoves the turn? Thus at this point in the hand, you are either WA to KJ, QJ, JT and WB a set and SA of a flush draw.

once you called the c/r otf, what was your plan? fold to any aggression ott? are you getting it in? once he c/r and you call, the pot bloats to 150 and he only has about 280 behind so you are well in the realm of commitment.

I think some percent of the time there will be draws in V's range, but we don't have this info yet, so without it i am just folding otf since its pretty rare for someone to take this line with a weaker J...possible, but unlikely and pretty optimistic without reads. If he is c/r semi-bluffing, are you really ready to get it all in ott if he fires another bullet? I think you will be getting it in with the worst of it if you constantly are getting it in with tptp otf with an SPR of ~11. It looks extremely exploitable to fold otf, but this is llsnl. No one is going to notice nor are they going to know what you folded to even understand how you could be exploited.

I'd also check back turn and reavalute otr. are you betting to charge draws now? even if he is on a draw, your bet of 90 + what you have behind as implied odds is leaving him 5 to 1 on a call, so i don't really see a point in betting here.

AP i can't see V checking here with anything we beat. b/f looks terrible and shoving is very rarely getting called by worse. guess i sigh and check back

Most of my analysis is based on standard-readless opponents. obvioulsy has to be adgusted once you pick up on how this opponent plays.

this is bad. we aren't even that deep. pot otr is 330 and V only has ~210 left. we are going to b/f getting almost 6 to 1 on a call?

i dont necessarily think you overplayed this hand ott but i do agree you should be checking back this river. in my experience villains are c/ring this flop with a polarized range, and we don't generally like to bet river with medium-strength hands vs polarized ranges.

and wow dont bet/fold

Yes. V is never c/r river without a near nut hand and we are still getting value from any other J. If we only had QJ or KJ, then I am checking behind. But I think there is still some value to extract from the hand.

The fact that 99% of our opponents never bluff c/r the river allows us to make this play.

Easy check back IMO, it looks like either a big combo draw or 2 pair +, so a value bet is horrible here. You're rarely good when called even though I'm pretty sure you have the best hand right now. 90% sure he was thinking about bluffing the river.

edit: can't see V checking here with anything that has US beat

I'm aware that c/r bluffing the river is almost non-existent in these games, but I'm just not a fan of folding otr when the pot is so large to such a small raise. If you fold just that one EXTREMELY rare time when you have your opponent beat then you are making a very expensive, very huge mistake. When the pot gets that large and you fold getting such great odds, even if you know you are almost always beat, it is still a mistake to fold imo, and better just to avoid letting yourself make that mistake.

If you plan to b/f 100 otr, then just check back. If you are more concerned with extracting thin value, then shove. What would V fold for 210 that he is calling for 100?

V still has over 100BB. A shove for value is in incorrect, in my opinion. He is hero-calling us with a J, folding with a busted diamond draw, or check-shoving with an 8.

If we shove, he is only calling us with a better and not a weaker J. We still have enough room here to bet/fold, knowing that he is only coming back over the top with a near-nut hand. Even though the pot odds will be very enticing, we know we are beat so we fold.

meh I prolly bet like half pot here for value maybe a little less, villains line is pretty consistant with someone who overplays a top pair type hand on the flop then doesn't know what to do with it on future streets because they over repped their hand on the flop.

I am b/f obv even despite being offered great odds if villain c/r the river I never expect to be ahead when he does. some times nits will fold a chop here to a river bet too but you will get called buy KJ JQ alot too.

Bet.

V's range is dominated by Jx type hands and draws that missed. I do not see QQ+, 2x, nor many 8x hands in his line. QQ+ would have 3bet pre or at least led turn after the flop check raise. 2x can be ruled out on turn/preflop/...a lot of places really. 8x is heavily discounted because of flop/turn/river line for villain is inconsistent (aggressive then passive when improved, then checking and missing value on river?). To add to the safe feeling, the cards that paired were both diamonds, so any pair+flush draw on the flop did not fill up.

So I put his range with a lot of Jx (including AJ chop), a lot of missed draws, TT/99, and a seldom 8 that V got over aggressive followed by scared or fancy with... this is a range we can get value out of -or- just as good, maybe get a chop to fold. I shove the river here. Villain will fold a good portion of the time, but some V's will call with worse (KJ, QJ, JT), and some Vs will fold the chop. Worth putting the money out there to extract these situations. Again, I feel pretty safe against Villain here that we are not leading into better hands.

Grunch

Check, ldo. Most of his range is missed draws, no value to be had. He's not going to call with KJ. And he might have JJ or 88 here.

I don't hate the flop call. Good player will make this move sometimes in multiway pots, especially when everyone else folds to them.

I like the turn bet. His hand looks like a draw now and you can't let him get there for free. If you get checkraised it's an easy fold.
Now that I think about it, your ranged is not very nutted here. If he knows this and realizes you fold to a turn check-raise a lot, he can CRAI all of his draws. Perhaps you could conclude that he never checks the turn with a set (because you can check back with nfd or some showdown hand), and so he only CRAI the turn with draws? For both players to be balanced here, villain would have to check his strong made hands some of the time, and hero would have to bet/fold AJ and bet/call nfd some of the time. I'm not sure. Maybe if both players play perfectly this becomes a check back for hero.

+1 to everything Brice has said.

I haven't read all the responses but I think I might bet the river. Maybe 100 or so and try to get a crying call from jk or jq or something. Maybe Even ace high will call if he thinks you're bluffing. I don't think he's trying to check raise the river with a boat. After the smallish turn bet I think he wouldn't risk you checking behind the river. I'd bet river and make crying call to a raise which I think would be hardly ever. I think he check raised a pair of jacks to see where he was at.

People absolutely hate getting bluffed so 90% are calling a river $100 bet with QJ or KJ. Especially when they can put you on some missed draw hands like diamonds, AK, etc...

In villains spot I've leveled myself into calling a $100 river bet here with a hand like AX putting villain on AK or missed diamonds and thinking we might chop with our ace or I might even win vs. his K high busted diamonds.

Check. His line makes no sense for anything we beat other than a busted draw.

Meh, I guess he has 3 combos of pair and a draw he could have c/r'd on the flop that we still beat.

Still probably checking.