1/2 table

In my first orbit, I pick up AK/JJ/QQ and raise $15-$20 depending on limpers, and every time, all of them just keep limp/folding. Deciding not to go too big because of this.

2 limps, $15 with QQ in UTG+2, tight/passive middle-eastern calls, 1 limper calls

Flop ($50): K 3 4
Check, Check, Check

Turn ($50): T
Check, Hero bets $25 for thin-value, Tighty calls, Fold

River ($95): 5
Hero ?

Flop and turn line check? We always keep talking about thin valuebetting.. Is this spot good for doing it?

Is he tight pre-flop, post-flop, or both? That's very relevant because if he's tight pre but loose post, then we can more clearly define his range.

Flop check is pretty standard. Turn I'd size up probably $35. His range should be QJ, JT, AT, 56, maybe 66-99, JJ, other random 1 pair hands, and occasionally weak Kx's, slow-played 2pair/sets, and weirdly played flushdraws.

Since the population is not checking flop to barrel turn and barrel river when the flush hits, it should seem pretty bluffy from V when you fire river again, so I expect you to be able to get looked up pretty light. This would be a good spot for thin value bet; you're beating more of his range then what beats you.

Bet/fold in this spot is much superior to check/calling, and it's much wayyyy better than check/folding.

Against a tight passive, I probably bet flop, bet turn, c/f river.

As played, if you bet here, it should be really small. You'll get a crying call from a ten, and you'll effectively block all kings and most of his flushes. In the hands of a passive player, KT is a crying call here just as much as AT, because it's not nutted anymore.

But I'm not really sure we should be betting. We only beat silliness like jt-AT, and we lose to a ton of kings and flushes.

Be interested to see what others think.

@YGO. Our read is that the villain is passive. With only that to go on, check/folding a flush card is way better than check/calling.

Yeah you're right, check/fold > check/call against a passive player.
But bet/fold > both was my main point.

Looks like a simple check-fold on the river.

Tight passive villain won't bet smaller pocket pairs (e.g 99) on the river when checked to with the flush getting there, it wouldn't make any sense to do so.

I see the river going check check most of the time unless we're beat in which case he'll likely put in a decent sized bet with his flushes.

This is just one of those boards/situations where you can't put much money into the pot with a premium hand.

We need to be good more than 50% when called.

Assume he calls with all suited Tx combos (non heart) and a flatted JJ

Non heart ATs, QTs, JTs (2x3=6) JJ (6) that's 12 combos.

Now hand that beat us flush combos, Kx I didn't count but I'm guessing that there are more hands that beat us and if he's tight I'm not even sure we get called by Tx.

C/F

I like the turn bet. Now, I check/fold.

We want to bet the Flop or Turn at $35 .. then be ready to c/f the next street IMO.

Don't 'cower' to the table dynamic too much. You got 2 callers here which is good, but I don't like to let them dictate how you play premium hands. If so, then it's better to make it $8-10 and set mine. You 'let' the first caller put $13 or $15 into $22. That's 2.6 to 1 and it only gets better from there. May not be relevant at most 1/2 tables.

How did you figure out the player profiles all in the first orbit? Were they regs? GL

Why?



You can c/f or bet small enough so worse can call. I don't think 1 is way better than the other, c/c is the only thing you can't do.

We don't need to be ahead more than 50% of the time when called since we're OOP.

^ Why does pos. matter?

If you IP, you have checking and showing down as an option to value betting. This allows you to realize your equity in the pot at no further cost. Thus, if your value bet is good less than 50% of the time, it's worse than checking.

If you're OOP, you don't automatically get to realize your equity in the pot by checking. Therefore, it can make sense to make a "value bet" that loses money when it's called but defends your equity in the pot better than check/calling or check/folding.

The 50% isn't the right number though. How often he c/r's, how often he c/f's, the size of the pot, and the sizing of the river bet are variables that'll let you calculate the % you need to be good when called.

The pot here is $95.
Say our bet size will be $35 (we can't go much higher and expect Tx to call).
Say he c/r's 10% of the time and we b/f and lose the $35 river bet.
Say he c/f's 10% of the time and we win the $95 in the pot.
Which leaves him c/c'ing 80%. Say of that 80%, we get c/c'd and win just 40%, 32% overall. And we get c/c'd and lose 60% of this 80%, 48% overall.

(10%)*(-$35) + (10%)*($95) + (32%)*($95+$35) + (48%)*(-$35) = +$30.80.

We were only good 40% of the time when called and are still very much +EV.

But we could just check behind and win 95 at least 42% of the time.

The question is whether to value bet or not. If we go chk chk OTR and we are good we win the pot so the existing pot is not at issue. Value betting the river is a 1:1 proposition for the amount of the value bet. We need to be good when called more than half the time for it to be profitable and in reality quite a bit more than 50%.

If villain will bluff or bluff raise there are other considerations but that's unlikely here and a blocking bet is rarely going to be the profitable solution to that problem (assuming it's a problem)

i would lead for 30 OTF
BTW, what pos is villan in?
turn bet is okay, just go a bit more, OTR i think either is fine i could go both ways tbh his range could be tx or kx. i might lean more towards check b/c depending on size, he might not even call with a weak ten but your almost always getting calls from kx or better

V was in MP.

Results:

Hero block bet $30 OTR, V raised to $90, Hero tank-folds

I get it now, I was evaluating it absolutely not relatively.