Quote:
Originally Posted by rankamateur
Even if you add all the semi-bluff naked oesd and naked flush draw combos, I believe you have under 50% equity, but I don't have poker stove in front if me.
One thing that I failed to take into account was the "dead money". As played, there is $160 dead in the center, so while I still feel you have under 50% equity, with 205 left in your stack, you'd have to have well under 50% card equity to make the fold correct - just due to the pot equity. If card equity < pot equity, fold, but stack size makes your decision easier.
However, one huge mistake many pokers make is assuming that the opponent is bluffing. If villain thought you raised 5x preflop AND donked into him on the flop for 5/6 of pot, and is just raising because he thinks you're bluffing, he's an idiot. Likewise, you MUST understand that he shouldn't be raising you without something pretty strong. If you're both $1500 deep, and the villain thinks you're "smart enough to fold", then perhaps there's a "move" to be made here as a bluff. With these stack sizes, a bluff is foolish. Granted, no one suggested a bluff by villain, I'm just pointing out the fallacy that the bluffing range of any player is as large as new players want to believe.