So this is something I've thought a bunch about, but I still feel kind of clueless and obviously nothing solver related is going to help.
Standard 1-2 with 6+ limp calling randoms and you are in the BB, so that's pretty good as you'll get to see a flop like 50% of the time with 85%+ of your range. Then:
3 limps to hero in BB with XY
Pot: $12
Flop: Q
T
7
Or
Flop: T
6
2
And the SB just bombs it for $15 ... except do they even know they are overbetting? What kinds of hands do we defend with? How different is it from if it was raised and they bet 150% pot?
Like if a couple of limps and then a raise to $15 have happened a few times preflop, does that make people think $15 is the first bet size?
I'll see people who are basically never overbetting any street postflop, unless they are shoving the nuts or x/r a big bet with the nuts, but will happily bet 2x pot on the first board with Q9o.
I've also seen enough people evaluate a $3 bet as basically a check, or decide it means I have nothing and so raise to $20 or something.
Do you just pretend the pot size is bigger when evaluating raises? What about bets?