Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
You are applying general rules like "people open too wide and don't 4bet enough" and using it to justify a lot of stuff that has to be -EV.
Like both hands in this thread are:
I called a big bet with JTs because I thought he was wide and he had JJ.
I called a bet with J9s because I thought he was wide and he had KK.
Need to clarify here - in hand 1, I thought the EP raiser was too wide, and wouldn't 4B. He didn't 4B. I'm guessing whatever he folded, it didn't beat top pair, since he folded to MP's flop c-bet on the JT5 board. So, it seems like he may have been opening too wide, if he can't continue there, getting a good price.
It was the MP 3B'er who had JJ, and I was pretty sure he had a big PP when he 3B, which he did. Not breaking my arm patting myself on the back. That's a pretty easy read when the guy's been mostly folding for an hour.
Hand 2 - V opened from the BTN, with a suddenly big stack, after doubling up in hand 1. It's reasonable to think he could be opening wider than he might have been with a stack only half as large, 3B'ing from MP, but I never said I thought he'd be opening *too* wide.
KK makes up a narrow sliver of his overall raising range. On a KJ9 flop, when I have J9, he's got 12 combos of AK, 12 of KQ, but only 3 of KK, 1 of JJ, and 1 of 99, and I didn't think he'd be raising pre and only flatting my flop check-raise with 2P+ on a draw-heavy, two-tone board that smacks his range as the PFR.
There again, if he's c-betting and flat-calling my check-raise on the flop with AK/KQ to jam a safe turn card, I think my line makes sense. I'm at the top of my range when I just flat pre in the BB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
It's not.
If you have a guy limping a lot who then opens to 3x EP and then a call and you overcall 150bb deep ... that's speculative.
This is closer to putting in everything preflop with 30% and no fold equity.
Yeah, I don't see that comparison as being very valid. It was a loose call. Not the same as jamming pre with 30% and no fold equity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I mean ... maybe post some of those hands?
I see a lot of people at the casino who probably think they are doing this but are just putting lots of money in with ~30% and having the best hand by the river.
I saw one guy a month or so ago who was the major spot in a normally mid 1-3 game who cashed out for $2-3k ... his genius exploiting strat. was to limp/call 80%+ of hands and tilt everyone when he almost always had it.
To put it another way even if it was a 10 hour session, that'd be ~46.7bb an hour. Do you think that was normal? Maybe get it higher by cleaning up the couple of bad calls?
Few hands from the session were worth posting. They were all either pretty straight-forward, or will sound like I'm bragging about the adjustments I was making. Almost a week later, I don't remember all the details well enough now to post them in full.
There was one where I turned top trips with A9s and lost to a boat when the BB check-jammed a short stack with 96o on a raggedy two-tone board, like 962xx9. Nothing much I could do there when V flops top 2 and turns a boat when I have top trips with top kicker on a two-tone board. I'm just going to lose and double him up.
There was another where I got pretty out of line raising J6s pre from the HJ, got called by a sticky rec-fish on the BTN, c-bet the flop of KJXrb, barreled turn when a BDFD appeared, and got max value from KQ when I made a miracle 2P on a river 6.
There was one where a mega-fish in the BB donked into me on a flop of KJ4xx when I raised pre with 54s. I raised, he called, then donked again on the turn, which was pretty bizarre. I raised again, he folded, and I showed the bluff.
There was one where I raised from MP with AQo, got called by a short-stacked BTN, c-bet the 9-high rb flop, the turn checked through on another 9 that also brought in a BDFD. I was planning to give up when I checked turn, but decided to check-call when he air-ball bluffed the river, and won.
There was a big pot that went four-ways with one guy all-in pre. I slow-played JJ by flatting a 3B pre from the CO, bet small into a dry side-pot on a QT-high flop, got stacks in against a short-stacked AK who was also slow-playing pre on the BTN (don't ask me to explain it), and scooped both the main and the side pot on a brick run-out.
I really should have folded KK when V jammed his turned flush, when I didn't have the flush suit in my hand. I've played with V before, knew he was loose-splashy, knew he liked to chase all sorts of trashy flush draws, and knew he was tilted from an earlier pot, when he folded AA face up to his friend's bluff with a flopped OESD on a K-high board. It was a mistake to think he wouldn't chase a non-nut flush when I c-bet 2/3 pot on the flop, and figured he'd have opened pre with a suited ace. I should have over-bet the flop. We were both deep enough and the SPR was high.
I started playing around 3:30 and left around 11:30, so it was an eight hour session, making $175 (58bb) / hour. I'm averaging $96/ hour over the the last three sessions at 1/3, totaling $2900 profit in 30 hours. I have no idea if that's "normal". I've run better over longer stretches, and occasionally worse. I had to drop down to 1/3 after a 4-session downswing at 2/5, but the four months spent grinding 2/5 definitely helped to improve my game.
For sure, though, I still have leaks I need to plug. I'm pretty sure I'm still bluffing too much, and calling too wide in a lot of spots.