1/2 at local casino

Hero: Mid-20s white male, been up and down all night, suffered bad beat in second hand of session but played flop straight to max value a few hands later.
(~$250)

Villian: Early 40s white female, haven't seen her play too many hands but sitting next to boyfriend or husband on her left and I'm playing to the left of him. (~$280)

Villian in middle position and raises to $12, Hero calls with AdJd, BB calls.

Flop (~$35): 2d 2c Ah-

BB checks, Villian bets $15, Hero calls, BB folds
(With the pre-flop raise and the few hands I've seen her c-bet pots this small I know she has A10+)

Turn (~$65): 2d 2c Ah 10d

Villian bets $30, Hero calls
(At this point I know my kicker is no good but I pick up a lot of equity in the hand with the nut flush, wanted to raise big but she looked antsy like she wanted to me raise so she could jam shove)

River (~$125): 2d 2c Ah 10d 5s

Villian bets $40..........


I feel like I completely butchered this hand

AP, I guess I call river. We're not good very often, but pot odds, though. I can't see folding turn after getting the BDFD. Flop is prob a fold when tight 40's fem bets, but I don't blame you for calling when it's less than a half-pot bet.

Quoting for posterity.

I think you played it fine OP.

Definitely calling flop with TP3K and backdoor nut flush draw getting > 3:1.

Also calling that turn with the flush draw + top pair.

I think you just gotta fold the river though... you're getting 4:1, but it's not enough... no way are you winning 20% of the time here.

Thanks. Will edit now, but enjoy the posterity. Tempted to edit your quote too...

Shoving river as a bluff seems like a cool idea

+1

All in or fold, don't call. Prefer shoving.

I don't feel like I make money bluffing people off top pair at 1/2.

But the idea is cool.

Would be pretty sexy, but I doubt we can rep 2x or AT.

I think if this thread was posted from Vs point of view with AK and river gets shoved all of the responses would say fold. It's kind of a weird merge because V can also call with worse.

Good point about V POV, but there's no way KK or A8 will call a shove.

Do you think V ever has something like KK here with the weak bet sizing?

No you do not. Not against the range you gave. The turn is NOT a good card.

If her range is AT+ then your equity preflop is 44%, on the flop it's 41%. On the turn it's 36%. On the river it's 10%.

Every street things get worse.

I'm a 40s female, but I can't imagine any hand I'd play this way. Maybe AA (doubt it) just to try to get a few bucks out of someone. Obviously on the river she is either very weak or very strong. If you shove, you are taking a serious risk, but it is kind of sexy.

I would probably call in hopes she is really weak and if not to at least see her hand!

yeah, if her range is only AT+, a T is literally the worst card for you, granted, its better than a T//, but the only combos of hands you were beating are now ahead of you.

you're getting 4:1, so even calling isnt the worst prospect

i idea of turning our hand into a bluff is interesting, i'm just not sure you get V to fold her hand often enough. unless we have info that proves contrary to that, generally most Vs will sigh call their AK/AQ

I want to know why the OP called the flop bet if he KNEW that villain had AT+

+1

Take it one step further, why even call pre if you know the EP range is likely AA-QQ, AK-AQ?

Wtf? Of course turn is a great card. I def call here. I have lots of outs and plus she could occasionally have a worse hand too.

I went with the information the OP provided about her range. If he's correct then our equity dropped on the turn. If your equity drops then I think it's safe to say that it wasn't a great card since on an average card our equity would tend to remain the same.

The fact that you find obviously true things unbelievable isn't my fault.

Why don't you learn to use an equity calculator and post the correct information yourself rather than reading the correct information and finding it unbelievable?

For the love of God don't shove here. You've stated you'd be shoving as a bluff, not for value. Which means you need her to fold AQ+. That's not going to happen here. People don't fold AQ or AK with a pair of aces. It just doesn't happen.

I understand that our equity dropped on the turn. HOWEVER, she only bet 30 into 65. You are calling 30 to win 95. Do you even direct/implied pot odds?

au2all never said a call was incorrect. we're getting a correct price to call, i dont think anyone is arguing that.

but saying the turn is a good card for us when it drops our equity 5% is a little foolish. literally every other diamond raises our equity other than the T

Flop equity: 41.27%

possible Turn cards and our equity vs {AA, AT+}:
K: 50.71%
Q: 43.18%
T: 36.13%
9-3: 49.93%

and this all goes back to this, which is not correct:

Of course the turn is a good card for us. Most diamonds would have been a good card. Our equity would be way less if we didn't pick up diamonds (so you saying the turn card isnt good because it dropped our equity by 5% is not correct - you should look at it as the turn card improved our hand such that our equity only decreased by 5% ott when it should be decreased by about half). If our equity is way less, then based on the range we have assigned the villain, we would have to fold and just lose the pot.

Picking up that turn card allows us sufficient/extra equity to continue in the pot and a good chance to win the pot. Without that extra equity we would have to fold because we arent getting the odds to call to try and just spike a J. Get it?

sigh...
learn to use a equity calculator before you make ridiculous statements like the ones bolded...


Board: 2A2*T
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****36.13%**24.61%**11.52%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**63.87%**52.35%**11.52%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*7
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****36.95%**21.11%**15.84%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**63.05%**47.21%**15.84%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*5
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****36.95%**21.11%**15.84%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**63.05%**47.21%**15.84%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*4
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****35.85%**20.45%**15.40%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**64.15%**48.75%**15.40%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*K
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****38.40%***5.64%**32.76%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**61.60%**28.84%**32.76%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****28.37%***5.64%**22.73%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**71.63%**48.90%**22.73%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*Q
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****27.55%***5.49%**22.06%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**72.45%**50.39%**22.06%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }

Board: 2A2*T
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****18.57%***5.02%**13.56%*{ AdJd }
UTG+1**81.43%**67.87%**13.56%*{ AA, ATs+, ATo+ }


notice a trend??? the only cards that our equity is worse is when any Q or any T drops OTT. the only time our equity is "way less" and our equity is about half is when a T falls that isnt the specific T

every other card in the deck is just as good as a T, which to say, isn't really that great for us.

in reality, if Vs range is specifiaclly {AA, AT+} there arent really any great turn cards other than diamonds that arent the T

edit: and yes, i understand that without a calling a turn card is much more difficult, but if V only bet 30 into 65 OTT and she hasnt been mixing it up, do we really think she is gonna stack off if a diamond falls on the river? maybe, but it's not 100%

Try calculating equity for the same card but in diamonds vs. other suits. You doing all these calculations for random non-diamond turn cards really doesnt show why diamond is better or not better, and is honestly a waste of time as far as our debate here is concerned.

Eg. Try:
1) Td then To.
2) 4d then 4o.
3) Qd then Qo.

Please let me know how the diamond equity compared to the offsuit equity for any given card. Thanks.


Ps to your edit: even if she doesnt stack off the river, we are getting direct odds to call. Plus there is no way she wont pay off a small bet otr if we hit.

In regards to the low sizing, I think V just has no clue what's in the pot. She did increase her amounts the whole way.

To get better to fold, I'd raise ott and shove otr but we're not really deep enough to do that. I'd raise to ~ 3x, and if the flush hits otr, bet the same otr to guarantee a call, if the flush doesn't hit, shove. But we start the turn with $200 eff, I'd like near $300 eff to pull this off.

I'd fold pre though. Middle-aged white woman are limping a ton of worse. How many worse Jx are they open raise?, pretty close to none. And how many worse Ax?, also pretty close to none.