What are the odds of flopping a flush draw? Pretty sure when you combine all of these, it's fine.

ETA: So long as we don't suck postflop.

GimoG

Why do the odds of flopping a flush draw matter? We just established that this is too tight to have any semi-bluff room with such a low SPR. It's also unlikely we'll be able to draw with correct odds.

YOU just said...we're playing it straight up ABC so our equity when drawing doesnt' fit into the equation. We need to be deeper

It's unlikely we'll be able to draw with the correct odds postflop if we flop a flush draw? We typically see a 1/2 PSB, a call, and bam, there's our 4:1 immediate odds to call right there (let alone our implied odds).

GsoundslikeyouplayinatoughergamethanIdoG

I still think it's leaky. Every bit of arithmetic you've presented thus far is more or less break-even. You're basically counting on a 1/2 PSB and a flat call. Anything bigger and you're toast. Or if it goes heads up, you're toast. And how good are your implied odds? Check/call then get busy on a flush card isn't exactly sneaky.

Also, we're in the BB on this hand. So we woudl likely be facing that 1/2 PSB with players to act behind us. Puke.

I'm not saying this hand is going to be profitable as AA here. But I still think it's going to be profitable if we're sitting at a typical 1/3 NL live table. If everyone at the table is a wizard, fair enough, although it's probably not a table that can be won at to begin with.

I agree that it would suck if someone in LP bets, we call, only to get checkraised. But my guess is that postflop is going to go fairly ABC; is someone really going to risk checking their monster in a big pot?

Overall, I think this is a snap call in position (although we're not getting as good implied odds due to not having our BB in already), and OOP closing the action it's a sigh call.

I think our goal overall with speculative hands is to get into multiway pots for cheap, and this hand accomplishes that. We don't have to be 300bbs deep to do that.

ETA: I'll admit that it's *possible* it's on the leaky side. Same with open limping 66- from EP or suited broadway hands (which I do). But if it is a leak, I think we'll both agree that at absolute worse (so long as we play ok postflop) that it is a small leak, no?

GsighcallingG

Folding pre in both spots is super nitty, jfc.

You don't have to be 300BB's deep. IF you were 150BB's deep you would see a flop with an SPR of like 11.

100BB's is a very limiting stack size. I just don't like flatting OOP with Ace/small. I'd really rather re-raise or fold

Don't know where you got the 48x from. Assuming this is $1/$2 $300 eff, we are calling $8 more. So we are getting 37.5:1 to stack one person. You say so yourself we are basically calling hoping to hit two pairs+ AND stack someone. It's 4.6% to flop two pairs+ with A3s AND on top of that we have to stack someone AND have our hand hold up. The chances of all of that happening is probably ~1%. All our losses will add up and make it a -EV call long term because our winnings won't cover our losses. AND that's assuming you play very well post flop.

We're 4.63% to flop two pairs+ with A3s. This translates to ~22:1. A lot better than 49:1 but still not good enough. We still have to stack people, which won't happen all the time even when we hit gin. On top of that, if we hit trips we're outkicked a lot if facing action. Finally even if we hit A83r with A3s vs AKo for example, we still have a whooping 28% chance of losing AFTER HITTING GIN.


It's 10.9% to flop a FD with A3s. FDs only come in ~33% of the time when we flop a FD. On top of that, if we check call flop with a FD, our hand becomes face up and even fish can read FDs and fear FDs. Yes we can semibluff, but we have no idea how often it'll work and if we get called, we're often a ~33% underdog.

You have no idea what bet sizes are coming and how many callers you'll get. Even if that best case scenario comes you mentioned, it's hard to get paid when you turn a flush after check calling flop. So that best case scenario, you're often breakeven at best. But if someone bets bigger or someone raises (which will happen a decent %), your implied odds go down and your pre flop call becomes dead money you threw away.


There are several big problems with calling pre. First off, since we are up against multiple players AND OOP, it's very hard to bluff, so we are basically calling to hit gin. Second off, pot will be bloated so we have to call big bets to hit our draw. Third off, the pre flop callers likely have weak speculative hands so even if we hit gin, we may not stack them. Are we really stacking someone when we flop 842sss with A3ss against 87dd????

There's a HUGE difference between calling a raise pre OOP here with A3s and limping small PPs or suited broadways. At passive tables, we can limp these hands even UTG because we are getting 100:1 or some ridiculous odds AND SPR is very very high in limped pots. Of course we should only limp at passive tables and we should be able to limp fold on the rare chance someone raises as QTs, KJs etc play poorly in bloated multiway pots.

It may be "nitty" but it's the right play most of the time, esp in hand 1. It's really really hard to bluff against 3+ people OOP so we're basically playing fit or fold if we call pre. On top of that, we have to stack people when we hit, which won't always happen. How the heck do you stack most people with your A3ss on 9T3sss when they have JdTd?? Congrats, you flopped gin and made ~$80 profit!!!! ~80% of the time, you call pre and check fold, giving up $10. Then the other times you flop a draw or top pair, etc and call one bet and check fold turn. Congrats, you just burned more money!!! This is a very easy way to lose money long term.

Now if you can bluff people often successfully in these spots, by all means call pre. Or even 3bet pre (can be spewy without very good reads though). But we usually play fit or fold if we call pre OOP in these spots.

This is the power of AK, AQ, 22+ in these spots OOP. We can flop TPGK+ with AK, AQ and happily stack off against donks OR we can flop a set or big overpair with 22+ and stack a donk. SCs and suited aces, WHEN THEY FLOP GOOD, they flop a draw. Draws rarely make money OOP.

I'm assuming 1/3 NL (OP has posted 1/3 NL hands previously). There's already $40 in the pot, so our implied odds against a single stack of $300 are $340 / $7 = 48.6:1 (it's possible I'm out by $10 there, but whatever). Plus we're not including shrapnel damage (i.e. money we win postflop from the other opponents not including the stackee).

In the end, I don't know what to say. If you guys are always facing huge PSBs / playing with opponents who don't pay off at least some (and occasionally all) of their stack against your nut flush, well, unlucky you I guess.

Gplaysinbettergamethanyouguys,apparentlyG

If this is $1/$3, then your #s are correct. Of course games will vary from location to location. And of course, we'll stack people sometimes with terrible hands such as A3s vs A7o on A35r. But this won't happen every time. There will be alot of times you get little action even after flopping gin against a very loose table.

Now obviously if you got folds 90+% of the time you flopped gin multiway, then just bluff raise most flops and print money even multiway. But this obviously won't happen as some donk will call you sometimes. BUT we won't stack someone often enough to make up for our losses.

We don't need to bluff. All of the idiots at 1/2 and 1/3 play their hands face up. A random opening UTG is JJ+/AK most of the time. If UTG raiser pots it into the entire table of callers on a T63r flop, we just fold. If he checks, we bet. Sometimes we flop two pair vs their AK, sometimes we flop TTx against their overpair. Sometimes we flop a flush draw in a multi-way pot, great. Sometimes we flop a straight. Sometimes we flop middle pair with backdoor flush and straight draws. Point is we play postflop and most people suck at poker so we can make the right decisions. 3b an UTG opener with ATs and no dead money would be awful. I'm never folding ATs to a $10 open with $400 stacks.

^ so are you also calling with any suited 3 gapper in this spot? Because what you are saying would hold true to 26ss as well as ATss

....what

Methinks RIO between the two hands are just slightly different...

Gandby"slightly"Imean"notevenclose"G

fyp to make it almost the same as calling any suited 3 gapper. we are calling to try and "flop" something.

They're not even in the same ballpark. AT is much more likely to have good equity on favorable boards against other hands. 26 is not. Let me know if you'd rather have AT or 26 on a 973 or 6TJ flop. Maybe we should just sip some coffee and wait for aces, then jam all in preflop over a few limps to avoid actually playing a hand. Or we can all turn over the cards, figure out who had the best hand preflop, and just give them the pot.

everyone advocating a fold here is assuming that you can only win post-flop when you gin the flop. that's simply not true.

• A-high flops are checked around and play out small in MW pots all the time for a tidy small pot
• you flop draws (as GG says above) and get the correct odds to apply pressure and win without actually hitting the turn/river
• pair+flush draw boards can be used to apply maximum pressure early on in the hand and push people off single pair (even overpair) holdings
• two pair hands are well disguised and can get significant value from AK, AQ
• and sometimes you can just flat out bluff even OOP when everyone looks bored with the flop

it's certainly not a case of A2C being playable pre, but Axs has benefits...

This is 1/3 NL guys.

No, that's not it at all.

Regarding ATs, we're assuming that people are not open raising UTG hands that we dominate like: A9, KT, T9, 98.

LOL. Good one!

You're not even going to discuss the fact that you're willfully putting money in the pot while you're behind instead you're going to discuss yawning? Seriously?

The bottom line is we end up playing fit or fold against a strong opening hand which is what all the fish do. If we were in position with 6 callers in front then I would call (if I dont squeeze).

thnx for the lecture and the staggeringly condescending tone. frankly i can't remember watching a PAD or HSP episode where anyone folded a suited A to a single raise, but i guess you've got it all figured out.

FWIW, I'm practically never bluffing postflop OOP going to this multiway flop, nor am I even going to semibluff a draw (unless it's a monster draw). I'm playing hit-a-hand poker here, which I believe will still be profitable in this situation.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Poker After Dark and High Stakes Poker were television serials. I take nothing I see there as anything other than pure entertainment, and no more seriously than professional wrestling.

On one of these shows (I don't recall which) everyone put up their share of $500,000 in the center of the table and agreed to play their hands all the way in the dark. Who does that IRL? NO ONE!

Then you see something like this: One of the characters (and they are characters just as much as Harry Potter, Hermione or Ron) raise out of the #1 hole with 69-off, shove all-in on the river, and take the pot: "Durrrr goes all-in for 350,000 with a nine-high! Daniel Negraneau folds aces!" That's entertainment, not Poker. Watching a real Poker game is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

Surrrrr he did, ! Then some fish tries it in your game. "But... but... but... it worked on High Stakes Poker!"

Yeah, of course it did. These characters are all the paid mascots of these on-line Poker sites, bankrolled by their masters, and are following a script. You won't learn a damn thing about Poker from PAD and/or HSP. Of course, you're always invited to come play with me and try to three barrel bluff an off suit, barely connected, garbage hand. And always call with any suited ace when OMC raises UTG with a range of literally KK+. That'll get the money.

You can believe everything you see on TV.

Wow, you guys must be amazing. I'm running at +$250 p/h over 100+ hours in 2015. my only losing session was for -$100 after three horribeats and the other 20 have averaged well over $1k. but if I apply your learned teachings I might be able to get up to the dizzying heights of a $30 p/h grinder. i guess that any of my musings would only be applicable to someone that could actually read multiple players and ranges postflop, so strut back to your nit vegas 1/2 and 1/3 games and i'll just keep slumming it at my local.

/rant

tbh we must be playing in different worlds here. is everyone truly a nit with a KK+ utg raise range where you play? if so, seriously consider giving up LSNLL or moving town. you can't beat rake.