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Stupid squeeze? Stupid squeeze?

09-27-2015 , 11:38 AM
This seemed like a good idea at the time.

1/2nl, saturday afternoon

Hero: $200, five hands into the session, haven't played a hand yet, probably blend with the 3 old men to my left
V1: 50ish, neatly dressed, not a hair out of place, wearing glasses and headphones. Appears to have ADHD. ~$150, mostly $2 and $1 chips, so he probably came over from 1/1.
V2: typical loose passive, ~$120.

My read on V1 is that he learned how to play poker watching ESPN. He is in almost every hand. When the action gets to him, he tanks and tanks and tanks. Carefully counts out and stacks his bets, even if it's just two white chips for a limp. Every street of every hand, including pre. I predict he will be in with a ton of marginal holdings, and will do the usual fish plays with them, albeit a bit more aggressively, all the while congratulating himself on his genius. Which is the only thing that keeps me from walking over there and bitch-slapping him.

I'm in UTG+1 with 98. I've been experimenting around with limping EP with small suited cards, eg sc's, Axs under the right conditions. Which would be, a table where there isn't much pre-flop raising, people will sort of half-heartedly stab at limped pots and get a lot of callers, and will show up OTT with crap most of the time. Which describes the typical 1/2 table here. Ideally with players to my left who go weak-tight OTT, which is unusual but seems to be the case today. Still have some fine-tuning to do, so I doubt this is a profitable play for me just yet but there's some potential I think.

HAND

V2 UTG limps
Hero limps with 98
There are two folds to my left, SB completes, BB tanks and tanks and tanks and finally checks.

Flop (~$12-13)
J83

V1 tanks and tanks and tanks and then tosses two red chips into the pot.
V2 snap-calls.
Hero raises $30.

So. While V1 is considering his action (we have plenty of time) I would like to analyze this play and see if it makes any sense, or if it's just an example of senseless violence.

a) Fold pre? Are there any circumstances you would play sc from EP? For a limp or a raise? Why? What does your action look like on the flop, either way?
b) What is your analysis of board texture? If checked to, do like a bet, c/c, or c/f, and why. If one of the EP players bets, is it worth calling? I think not, but if you disagree, I'd like to hear why.
c) What does V1's range look like? What does the tell mean (tossing chips instead of stacking and placing), if anything
d) Same questions for V2 (where the tell is calling without hesitation)
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-27-2015 , 11:46 AM
If you're going to squeeze here, you have to make it bigger. V2 is never folding his draw for $20 more, even if V1 folds his likely weak J. Unless you're looking for a call from V2 to then bomb safe turns, your squeeze is too small. As safe turns are few on this board, I don't like it.
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-27-2015 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
If you're going to squeeze here, you have to make it bigger. V2 is never folding his draw for $20 more, even if V1 folds his likely weak J. Unless you're looking for a call from V2 to then bomb safe turns, your squeeze is too small. As safe turns are few on this board, I don't like it.
Hm. At the time, I figured V2 could call or not, didn't really care, but I see what you're saying. I should have.
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-27-2015 , 03:20 PM
Situation isn't bad for a squeeze. V1 looks like a weakish made hand and V2 looks like a draw. The sizing is just too small. When it comes back to V2 he is looking at $20 to win $60, with those odds he isn't folding any draw. Since there are a couple of draws he could be on it isn't clear what is safe on the turn. If you are going to do this make it $45. Now he is looking at $35 to win $75, much worse odds.

In general though, I like calling flop and betting safe turn cards. It puts more pressure on V2 when he is drawing and is cheaper if the turn is bad.
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-27-2015 , 03:43 PM
This is not a spot worth even bothering with.

Fold flop. Next hand.


Also, position. Forget playing speculative hands from UTG/EP. Just wait until u r in position.
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-28-2015 , 01:19 PM
I won't even talk about raise pre or don't play this hand. But all right you limped and now V1 bets 10, what type of hand he is betting here? it might be a weak Jx or something like 66-TT, KQ, KJ is he capable to check with a big pair on BB? Lots of fish do that and then never folding.As you said he was thinking about what to do and then checked (pre-flop)... which might mean something maybe Broadway cards or pocket pair

V2 as he limped from UTG and is Loose passive, he might have limped with a very strong hand. I've seen limping with AA/KK and then playing CALL/CALL/CALL when there is just a K or Q on a dry board. Normally fast call will mean some sort of a draw and loose passive like to see a river even if drawing for 4 outs.

When you are raising 2 opponents by making it 30, what type of hand you are trying to represent there? Anyway if you think that they are capable of making a fold right there make it 45-50, if not just Call or Fold.

I don't like your line, as what are you going to do on the turn? What if they both call flop and check it to you on the turn? Playing C/F now? Or bet again and try to get them out of their week/strong hands as we don't know where we are especially against loose passive, this type of players love to check any type of holding.

Getting to my point here, you should have a good plan when you are raising on the flop there and I don't think you had one, you was expecting both to FOLD and probably they did not. What I would here:
CALL the FLOP and then bet/raise TURN let's say on any card except spade. And if I'd stay heads up with V1 betting any over card (to a J) as well as 8 or 9 on the river.

You might don't like my thoughts, but as I said for the first instance I never been in same situation and probably never going to be, as with such a holding you have to be a pre-flop aggressor and you were not, so in your situation just fold as you didn't hit the flop hard!
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-28-2015 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
This is not a spot worth even bothering with.

Fold flop. Next hand.


Also, position. Forget playing speculative hands from UTG/EP. Just wait until u r in position.
THIS^

You want two ways to win the hand: Make the best hand or make people fold out the worst hand.

Playing out of position does not allow you to win two ways.
Stupid squeeze? Quote
09-28-2015 , 04:13 PM
If you're at a table with bad players who get to show down with marginal holdings, and there isn't a lot of raising preflop, I don't think a limp here is abysmal, although the optimal play here is to fold. But I would want to make sure the players are deep, and can't fold if we hit a monster.

On this 4-way flop with a bet and a call, we really should just be letting this go. Trying to get a 1/2 player to fold top pair is literally lighting money on fire, and we can't improve and like our hand at all. If we hit 9 we don't love our hand, not to mention even an offsuit 9 puts two straights on the board. And in 1/2, our 8 could even be dominated. ALSO, 8 also completes the flush!

IF we have some kind of crazy read, and you're insistent on winning this pot, right now, $30 will not do it on this street. It's hard to imagine ANY draw folding for $20 getting >3:1, so now we have to run a multi-street bluff, and hope that V's are on a draw, and that they miss. Even QT has a lot of equity against us...

Folding > $65 otf >$30.
Stupid squeeze? Quote

      
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