I really get lost in these very multiway pots

Its late at night and table is playing very loose.
Both CO and SB are young asian guys who are playing very loose and doing very random stuff. Tiny bets, random slowplays, random check raises. Very hard to get a read on them except that they obviously have very little experience in NL holdem. Effective stacks are about $300
Hero has been card dead and involved in pretty much no pots at all but no one is paying attention.
I forgot to make it more then my standard $15 raise with a table this loose
Folded to Hero in the Hijack with KK

Hero makes it $15 everyone behind him calls

5 to the flop

($75)
774
SB leads $20, BB folds, Hero calls, CO raises to $50, fold, SB hesitates and calls, Hero calls

($225)
2
Checked through by everyone

($225)
5
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $44, BB calls, Hero calls

on the flop:

raise the $20 to $60

I'd play it the same way. We are getting like 7-1 on the river so I'm not folding there.

I would instinctively want to raise the donk bet on the flop, but I think that would be pretty terrible. We are destroyed against a 7, overpairs mostly are drawing to 2 outs, if a flush draw gets there we have a redraw.

This spot would be more interesting if we had a middle pocket pair. That would be a tough spot.

5 to the flop means about half the time someone has a 7. Your 2 pair is a decent hand, but it won't win many showdowns.

If you want this pot, you need to stick in a raise. If you believe the pot is available, shove the turn.

At tables this loose, simply attempt to get in 10% of our stack preflop so we can stack off on non-******ed boards postflop. My previous post today I mentioned how my last time out I raised to $35 at my 1/3 NL table (12xbb!!!!) and got 3 (THREE!!!) callers. Your table sounds similar. Just raised to $30, go multiway, grit your teeth and stack off on non-A high flops, imo.

The situation we have ended up creating I find very difficult and it is extremely easy to make a huge mistake (folding the best hand in a big pot or calling off our stack with the worst hand). The SPR is 4, so stacks can go in just 2 streets. The board is drawy. Other hands can make mistakes against us by going broke (ex. 88). Honestly, while we hate being committed here having given 4 opponents terrific 23+ implied odds preflop, the fact is we might be, especially against random button clickers. If a nit continues in the hand we might be able to find a fold.

I suck at these rock-and-a-hard-place spots, but I could see me playing it the exact same way postflop. Although that may be a mistake (it's possible we should just commit for stacks).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Raise flop to 80, and you'll have around 30% of your stack in the middle.

Don't fold.

On the flop, you can get value from spades, 65, gut shots, 88-JJ, maybe more.

7x is definitely possible if people are playing so loose, but if you raise and don't fold, there are more hands you get value from than you lose to, imo. Like unless you think people will have 72o, K7o, etc., then the combos of 7x, which are blocked 50%, might include like I dunno, a bunch of suited hands and some connected hands, maybe like 2-3 dozen combos. So yes, by all means, 7x is possible, But 88-JJ are 24 combos; spades could be another 30 or so; 65 is another 16; gut shots like 86,53,63,85 could be another few dozen, and then whatever else might continue... other pairs (55, 66, 4x) that stick around, backdoor draws + pairs, etc. There's a lot more in ranges than 7x.

So I think raising and not folding is profitable on its own. Having the Ks is a also nice 4-5% equity insurance policy. A K is of course an out, as well. So you do have some equity when you are behind. It's a very volatile spot, but raising and getting it in is the right play.

^^^^ I think Willy's plan is much better, and something I really have to start learning to do when I accidentally get myself in these spots (which I'm getting myself into more and more lately, and I'm misplaying most of them)

GcluelessNLnoobG

If I give the other four players a range of roughly the top 35% of hands [55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o], PokerCruncher spits out that you are ahead on the flop 70% of the time. With these assumptions, you're ahead after the river just about 55% of the time.

If I give the other four players a range of roughly the top 25% of hands, your odds of being ahead actually improve to 84% on the flop, 62% after the river.

This would strongly suggest you need to bite the bullet and play this hand strongly, as the best path forward out of a bad situation.

Great post.

If the board was 773 would your plan change? How would we play TT-88 here?

Gotta raise the flop