Just something I've been thinking about and attempting to implement more and more into my game lately. That is extracting value from draws, but not in the most common sense of the statement.

Typically when we think of extracting value from draws we are talking about when we have something like the below HH:

Example 1:
Hero AK $800 in the CO
Villain MP, your standard loose passive has $800

Preflop ($7): 3 limpers to hero including villain, hero raises to $40, limpers fold except for MP Villain who calls.

Flop ($97): A38
Villain checks, Hero bets $75 and villain calls.

Turn ($247): 6
Villain checks, Hero bets $180 and villain calls.

River ($607): 4
Villain donks $200 and hero folds.

In this above example, we are extract value from villain while giving him the incorrect odds to call with his face up flush draw. Obviously with the little detail given, he could have AQ/AJ etc here, but say that we are confident in our read in a given situation and after the flop action are 100% certain that villain is on the flush draw.

If/when this is the case, does it matter what our two cards are?

Example 2:
Hero JQ MP $1000
Villain UTG $1000

Villain again is a pretty standard loose passive, but this time, hero has some history with villain, understands that villain think he understands the game, but hero has routinely see him make calls when given the incorrect odds, and has also seen him take this very same line on the draw. Villain is the type of player to limp nearly any two suited cards IE Q5ss, J3ss etc.

Preflop ($7): Villain limps UTG, Hero raises to $25, button calls, Villain calls.

Flop ($82): 257
Villain donks $20, Hero raises to $100, button folds, villain calls.

Turn ($282): 4
Villain checks, Hero bets $200, villain calls.

River 1 ($682): 3
Villain donks $200, hero folds.

River 2 ($682): 2
Villain checks, Hero bets $325 (to mimic my non-jam value bet sizing) and villain folds.

As of late I have been thinking about taking these types of lines with bluffs as well as with my value hands. When we pick up a read on an individual and how he tends to play his one pair hands (bet and fold to a raise, or check raise), vs how passively they tend to play their draws, isn't of great import to us to maximize our value with air versus their draws?

One last example of a hand I played tonight, note that my flop cbet may be questionable but I had a bit of history with 2/3 villains in this hand and I don't think the 4th would continue with a ragged ace on this board.

Example 3:
Hero CO with JJ $950
Villain UTG+2 ($1000)
Button ($1400)
UTG Straddler ($300)

Villain is a decent reg but he plays pretty ABC tag (aside from limping too much pre) and play very straightforward in larger pots post-flop.

Preflop ($17): Villain limps UTG+2, Hero raises to $50, button calls, UTG calls, and Villain calls.

Flop ($207): AT4
Checks to Hero who bets $120, folds to villain who calls.

Turn ($447): 6
Villain checks, Hero bets $300, villain calls

River ($1047): 2
Villain leads $300, hero folds.

I guess what I'm trying to say here, and what I'm looking to start discussion about, is the concept of charging villains that we believe to be drawing, not only when we have hands with value IE Example 1, but when we also have hands like Example 2, that have no SD value. Example 3 is a mix in between where we have showdown value but we have completely over-rep'd our hand.

Also what I would like to hear, is what people think of checking back the turn when we are in position in these spots, especially against villains that are capable of bluffing missed draws. Would it frequently be worthwhile to see that river card first and know that villain has missed their draw, and then bluff raise any river bet made by them (once again we have to be confident in our read) rather than bloat the pot charging them to draw.

Would also be curious to here thoughts about whether or not we barrel again on the river knowing that they've missed their draw and can't call, based on what types of table images we are looking to create. IE the JJ hand, if that river bricks, are we checking behind to realize our SDV, or do we fire the third barrel to keep our hand hidden and not let everyone know what we are up to and that they are being read like open books?

All thoughts and comments are appreciated. Discuss away !

if we are certain that he has a FD then hand one is played perfect. this has to account for it being naked too. the fact that a FD can hit a pir too is a reason why it does matter what our cards are.

the fact that villain can sometimes play medium strength hands like a draw are another reason why it matters what our cards are.

if he shows us a draw and will always fold unless he hits a flush and we will bet the river always then theoretically it doesnt matter. betting the river thought leads to higher variance because we always have to bet with Q high. we can check back weak top pairs sometimes on the cacse that he has a medium strength hand slightly better then ours,

ok on to read the next 2 hands

the only reason to check a value hand back on the turn is to induce a bluff from missed draws and we should only be doing in one of those spots where is possible he could be playing a slightly better medium strength hand that he will not bet on the river regardless. only time to pot control really, but its also bluff inducing since he never bets his medium strength hand.

the QJ example and charging to draw is just you bluffing. doesnt really matter how you coin it, its just a bluff with Q high that is going to have to turn into a multi street bluff, not necessary at these limits but a good thing to think about for when you move up as people become more attentive

as long as you are never getting opened up to a c/r bluff on the river then you should value bet your hands if you are sure you arent value owning yourself. like if you have TPNK and its very possible for him to have TPbetterK then checking can be fine.

i wouldnt be too worried about what you are showing down because most villains arent attentive enough to remember exactly what you should and the exact action, as far as value hands go that is.

True it is a bluff, but does my thought process/logic make sense, that even if we have a bluff, we want to bloat the pot against a draw so that when we get to the turn only has a 20% chance to hit on the river? We bloat the pot on the turn versus a bluff in order to win a larger pot with our bluff, hence me "coining" this thread extracting value. We know villain isn't looking us up on the river with a random pair he picks up, but is playing fit or fold to his draw. Guess that's my thought anyways.

yeah of course. in theory it makes sense but in reality its less true. like i mentioned it just so happens that a lot of medium strength hands get played like a draw. because of this i prefer to not have total air.

but like i said if you know then yeah obv bloat the pot and take money every time they miss which will be the majority of the time.

can it be that it was all so simple ::wu tang lyrics::

For sure for sure. As always, appreciate your insight. You truly are a machine.

I combine these two thoughts oop on alot of draw heavy boards. There is an older reg at the shoe that likes drawing in position. He'll call you down on two streets and if you check the river to him he'll fire 90% of the time. A hand I specifically remember I had raised in lp w 78 and the flop came 9 6 2 all hearts. I lead 16 into 23 he calls. Turn blank I lead 50 into 62 he calls. At this point I have him on something w A drawing at the nuts. I check river to induce, he bets 75, I call and he shows AJ

In position as you mentioned, if you have a specific read and know he's drawing and have a good feel for his preflop raising/calling ranges and know you aren't getting called when he spikes a face card or ace on the end, yeah I like building the pot on the turn with a made hand or air. The tricky part is if he does spike top pair on a pretty uncoordinated board is he ever calling your river bet?

This is an important consideration, especially in passive, showdown-heavy low limit games. It can be very difficult (if not impossible) to be completely certain in any given hand if a villain has a draw or is just check-calling with some mid bluff-catcher-ish hand to get to showdown.

Which means that we're often better off not barrelling with air: it'll put us in a lot tougher spots than we really want to be in at the lower limits.

That being said, this post brings up a good point about being very perceptive about how villains play their draws and how we can extract more value from them with non-made hands.