Villain is one of the bigger fishies in the game, but thinks he's a solid player, always analyzing hands after they happen, but his analysis always demonstrates he just doesn't think on a high level. He overbets his medium strength hands to protect them, and overall is way too passive, like always limping behind AK. He's fit or fold on the flop. Hero has a very LAGgy image, and is running over the table, including villain, which may or may not make a difference in the hand. Villain has about 400 to start, hero covers.

Preflop, villain limps button (chop blocker), hero raises from SB to 25 with 99, only villain calls.

pot is 50
Flop is 1088

I check, villain bets 30, I call

Pot is 110
Turn is 8

I check villain bets 100, I call

Pot is 310
River is 3

I check.

How'd I do up to here?

I would've led flop to prevent giving V a free card, as there are many draws and overs V can have. Checking isn't terrible though

You played it alright.

If you bet river, you're only getting called when you're beat so I like the check.

If V shoves here, I call

I would Cbet the flop most times but c/c is not bad. I'm folding turn and I don't lose any sleep about it vs this villain with this sizing; it's literally the worst card to bluff and you said villain is not a high level thinker. I guess if you have a read that he plays low pp like this then turn is fine and probably c/F river

If you called turn with some read he's bluffing often then c/c river. When you call the river you will wonder why the **** villain would play JJ like that xD

Given your description I think I fold on the turn. I like the flop call, villain can be betting very wide when you check the flop. When villain continues on the turn I probably find a fold. At that point he is likely over playing a medium strength hand but his TX beat you and that probably makes up a lot of his range. He can have some smaller pairs in his range also but it isn't worth paying to find out.

I would rather bet the flop also. Partially to keep villain from betting and forcing hero into a guessing game.

I would argue that 10x is not a medium strength hand in this case, especially given the way I've played the hand.

Preflop - Good, maybe go 30 though.

Flop - I actually think a check/call line is what I'd use as default here, even against very good players. Here's why: flush draws, open ended straight draws, and inside straight draws with one or 2 overcards are mostly not folding to a flop bet (though you did say he's fit/fold postflop...). Betting builds a pot where we aren't a huge favorite and puts us in tough spots later where he can probably profitably bluff. I'd c-bet a slightly more polarized range of overpairs +, draws, and ace highs with backdoor flush draws.

Turn - I think I fold since you said he's passive and overbets his medium strength hands. I think 10-x counts as a medium strength hand here. I'm assuming villain doesn't think like 55 is a medium strength hand here. He should have just about all 10-X combos in his range.

If villain were a tougher player and if he bet turn smaller, I think I'd call turn then either call or fold river depending on the card and sizing.

You beat exactly zero of villain's value range. So his range ott needs to be bluffs ~40% of the time. DUCY?

Fold ott.

Hero is over analyzing the spot.

~~~
Et même si ce n'est pas vrai. Il faut croire à l'histoire ancienne.

Just ck-f to the 100

Bet the flop

I really have a hard time seeing how 10x is not the nuts for villain on the turn. I can't believe that he would think I could play an overpair that way. It sure looks like I have 2 big cards and haven't connected. Let's say he has 66. How would he play that hand?

I don't see him betting almost pot ott with a T there having ducks. Unless he really is "zomg I haz FH" level I think turn is a fold. Tx is squarely in his limp calling range as is the unlikely 8x, and yes, low PPs. 36 combos of low PP you beat, one you chop, 48 A-JT combos, 2 T9s combos (I think), 1 A8s combo, 1 78s combo.

I like the call down if he's steaming though.

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Results:

He checked behind with pocket 4's and MHIG